Biden infrastructure/tax increase megathread

[Mr.Phips]

lmao, I would NOT count of the GOP to be bound to any sense of political caution not to slash social programs next time they have the trifecta. The only reason they didn't slash Obamacare was because of two "moderates" and one quixotic weirdo who had a grudge with the president. The quixotic weirdo is dead and the "moderates" are on their way out, and besides Republicans have a much easier path to winning 52+ Senate seats than Democrats. We've been saved from true conservative rule for the past 20 years or so by the fact that Democrats have consistently punched above their weight in Senate races, but eventually we're going to run out of luck, and when we do, we're in for a rude awakening. Republicans don't care that their socioeconomic agenda is unpopular, because their strategy is all about diverting attention away from socioeconomic grievances with culture war bullsh*t, and this strategy has almost always worked for them. The fact that they're seen as the "party of the working class" after 4 years of further oligarchic entrenchment says everything you need to know.

You are RIGHT. Kinda

Yes, if Republicans had a trifecta with 55 senate seats, they would do a LOT of damage. And yes, Democrats have punched above their weight in several senate races and we got lucky

That said, Republicans are wary to lose elections. And they follow the cues of the business community. If these programs create the economic growth they are supposed to do, the CEO of Walmart and Amazon might not be happy if they are cut. They rather their slaves...eh I mean workers get Medicaid instead of company insurance.

The problem is that the next Republican trifecta (will either be 2024 or 2028) is almost certain to have at least 55 Senate seats due to Dems not being able to maximize potential gains in 2020 and very likely 2022 when they lose seats again on a class that they continue to have bad luck (2004, 2010, 2014, and very likely 2022) on.

Dems basically have to win 2024 at the presidential level or they lose the Senate for a generation.  The inevitable Class I Senate seat wipeout needs to be postponed long enough that they can compete throughout the South/Southern Plains by the time it happens.  

For the same reason, if Dems have to lose in 2024, they would probably be best off losing it to Trump.

Even if Dems win the Presidential election and lose four seats in 2022, they probably lose the senate until 2032 at least.  If they are at 46 after 2022, they still probably lose three seats in 2024 even if they win the Presidency in 2024, putting them at 43.  Then in 2026, they probably lose a couple of seats again (some combination of MI, GA, MN, NH), potentially bringing them down to 40.  Then in 2028, they very likely lose the Presidency (almost impossible to hold the Presidency for three consecutive terms), which again limits their gains to maybe a seat or two on that class that they keep getting screwed on (2004, 2010, 2016, and likely 2022), putting them around 42 seats.  Then in 2030, maybe they finally gain Texas, putting them at 43.  

They would have been better off letting Trump win in 2020 with 51 senators (Perdue would have avoided a runoff) and pick up WI, PA, and NC in 2022 (I don’t think they would have been able to win FL and OH in this situation even in a Trump midterm), getting Dems to 52.  In 2024, a Dem very likely would win the Presidency and potentially hold losses to just WV (the 2024 environment would be much better for Dems after eight years of Trump than four years of Biden) for 51 seats.  In 2026, Dems would probably have lost the senate but not by much (maybe down to 48-49 seats).  2028 would have been a wash with the Dem President probably getting re-elected.  2030 is when Dems would have faced a bad midterm with the class 1 wipeout in this case.

If they can get past 2024 without a wipeout, they will be ready to contest enough of the South and Plains by 2028/32 that it will be a fair fight again even if they get wiped out of Class I 2030.  Class I is eventually going to be D's worst map no matter what.  Will be interesting to see if they ever get a favorable environment when Class III is up.

Dems really need a Republican to be elected President in 2028 (very likely if Biden wins in 2024).  That way they almost certainly stave off a 2030 wipeout on class 1 and have a very good chance of having trifectas in GA, MN,and PA (legislative lines will be quite favorable to Dems there throughout the decade due to the PA Supreme Court makeup) and having a governor/state house in Texas to block Republican gerrymanders there.  Dems really fail at playing the long game the way Republicans have.

[Comrade Funk]

There's a reason libertarianism has become basically non existent for anyone under 40. Atlas is the only place where you have young people cheering corporate tax cheating.

[Sir Mohamed]

I feel like the apparent failure to pass the Build Back Better plan is kind of similar to Trump's failure to repeal Obamacare in 2017. Both were more or less signature promises POTUS wanted to done in the 1st year, but a narrow senate majority prevents it from happening. Both cause severe outrage at the base and leaves POTUS with declining approval ratings.

Only difference is that Obamacare repeal failed due to the GOP's lack of a real alternative (something they have failed to come up with ever since the ACA was passed) while BBB only fails due to 2 stubborn senators with an out of time and out of touch mindset.

[jaichind]

I feel the apparent failure to pass the Build Back Better plan is kind of similar to Trump's failure to repeal Obamacare in 2017. Both were more or less signature promises POTUS wanted to done in the 1st years, but a narrow senate majority prevents it from happening. Both cause severe outrage at the base and leaves POTUS with declining approval ratings.

Only difference is that Obamacare repeal failed due to the GOP's lack of a real alternative (something they have failed to come up with ever since the ACA was passed) while BBB only fails due to 2 stubborn senators with an out of time and out of touch mindset.

I was about to write the same thing.  But cannot I claim that the 2017 GOP effort to repeal Obamacare was defeated by a renegade within its own ranks (McCain) just like the BBB failure (relatively) was also due to Dem renegades.   In both cases what seems like fairly unpopular structures ended up going on for a while.  With the Red wave in 2022, it will be a decade before the Dems have a chance to alter the Trump 2017 tax structure just like it seems unlikely the GOP will be able to get rid of key parts of Obamacare going forward.

[Pres Mike]

I feel like the apparent failure to pass the Build Back Better plan is kind of similar to Trump's failure to repeal Obamacare in 2017. Both were more or less signature promises POTUS wanted to done in the 1st year, but a narrow senate majority prevents it from happening. Both cause severe outrage at the base and leaves POTUS with declining approval ratings.

Only difference is that Obamacare repeal failed due to the GOP's lack of a real alternative (something they have failed to come up with ever since the ACA was passed) while BBB only fails due to 2 stubborn senators with an out of time and out of touch mindset.

What are you talking about?

The Build Back Better plan is on track to pass by Halloween

It will be a 2 trillion dollar investment in the safety net, largest since the Great Society. Passing it will be a huge success, not failure.

Paid leave, Medicaid expansion, Obamacare subsidiese, pre-k, child care

These are all popular with the base unlike Obamacare repeal. Even Republicans were wary of fulling repealing it, knowing thousands of stupid republicans actually get health insurance through Obamacare

[wbrocks67]

I feel like the apparent failure to pass the Build Back Better plan is kind of similar to Trump's failure to repeal Obamacare in 2017. Both were more or less signature promises POTUS wanted to done in the 1st year, but a narrow senate majority prevents it from happening. Both cause severe outrage at the base and leaves POTUS with declining approval ratings.

Only difference is that Obamacare repeal failed due to the GOP's lack of a real alternative (something they have failed to come up with ever since the ACA was passed) while BBB only fails due to 2 stubborn senators with an out of time and out of touch mindset.

It's clear both will end up passing. Obviously reconciliation will be watered down, but I don't see a scenario where it doesn't pass.

[Mr.Phips]

I feel like the apparent failure to pass the Build Back Better plan is kind of similar to Trump's failure to repeal Obamacare in 2017. Both were more or less signature promises POTUS wanted to done in the 1st year, but a narrow senate majority prevents it from happening. Both cause severe outrage at the base and leaves POTUS with declining approval ratings.

Only difference is that Obamacare repeal failed due to the GOP's lack of a real alternative (something they have failed to come up with ever since the ACA was passed) while BBB only fails due to 2 stubborn senators with an out of time and out of touch mindset.

What are you talking about?

The Build Back Better plan is on track to pass by Halloween

It will be a 2 trillion dollar investment in the safety net, largest since the Great Society. Passing it will be a huge success, not failure.

Paid leave, Medicaid expansion, Obamacare subsidiese, pre-k, child care

These are all popular with the base unlike Obamacare repeal. Even Republicans were wary of fulling repealing it, knowing thousands of stupid republicans actually get health insurance through Obamacare

Can they pass it without paying for it?  Sounds like Sinema won’t agree to any personal or Corp income tax increases.

[Sir Mohamed]

I feel like the apparent failure to pass the Build Back Better plan is kind of similar to Trump's failure to repeal Obamacare in 2017. Both were more or less signature promises POTUS wanted to done in the 1st year, but a narrow senate majority prevents it from happening. Both cause severe outrage at the base and leaves POTUS with declining approval ratings.

Only difference is that Obamacare repeal failed due to the GOP's lack of a real alternative (something they have failed to come up with ever since the ACA was passed) while BBB only fails due to 2 stubborn senators with an out of time and out of touch mindset.

What are you talking about?

The Build Back Better plan is on track to pass by Halloween

It will be a 2 trillion dollar investment in the safety net, largest since the Great Society. Passing it will be a huge success, not failure.

Paid leave, Medicaid expansion, Obamacare subsidiese, pre-k, child care

These are all popular with the base unlike Obamacare repeal. Even Republicans were wary of fulling repealing it, knowing thousands of stupid republicans actually get health insurance through Obamacare

Recent days more sounded like Manchin and Sinema don't care whether anything passes. I still consider it a disappointment to water everything down. 3.5 trillion was already a compromise and this proposals doesn't include more climate investments urgently needed.

[Mr.Phips]

I feel like the apparent failure to pass the Build Back Better plan is kind of similar to Trump's failure to repeal Obamacare in 2017. Both were more or less signature promises POTUS wanted to done in the 1st year, but a narrow senate majority prevents it from happening. Both cause severe outrage at the base and leaves POTUS with declining approval ratings.

Only difference is that Obamacare repeal failed due to the GOP's lack of a real alternative (something they have failed to come up with ever since the ACA was passed) while BBB only fails due to 2 stubborn senators with an out of time and out of touch mindset.

What are you talking about?

The Build Back Better plan is on track to pass by Halloween

It will be a 2 trillion dollar investment in the safety net, largest since the Great Society. Passing it will be a huge success, not failure.

Paid leave, Medicaid expansion, Obamacare subsidiese, pre-k, child care

These are all popular with the base unlike Obamacare repeal. Even Republicans were wary of fulling repealing it, knowing thousands of stupid republicans actually get health insurance through Obamacare

Recent days more sounded like Manchin and Sinema don't care whether anything passes. I still consider it a disappointment to water everything down. 3.5 trillion was already a compromise and this proposals doesn't include more climate investments urgently needed.

Significant climate investments are not happening.  Accept that.

[Sir Mohamed]

I feel like the apparent failure to pass the Build Back Better plan is kind of similar to Trump's failure to repeal Obamacare in 2017. Both were more or less signature promises POTUS wanted to done in the 1st year, but a narrow senate majority prevents it from happening. Both cause severe outrage at the base and leaves POTUS with declining approval ratings.

Only difference is that Obamacare repeal failed due to the GOP's lack of a real alternative (something they have failed to come up with ever since the ACA was passed) while BBB only fails due to 2 stubborn senators with an out of time and out of touch mindset.

What are you talking about?

The Build Back Better plan is on track to pass by Halloween

It will be a 2 trillion dollar investment in the safety net, largest since the Great Society. Passing it will be a huge success, not failure.

Paid leave, Medicaid expansion, Obamacare subsidiese, pre-k, child care

These are all popular with the base unlike Obamacare repeal. Even Republicans were wary of fulling repealing it, knowing thousands of stupid republicans actually get health insurance through Obamacare

Recent days more sounded like Manchin and Sinema don't care whether anything passes. I still consider it a disappointment to water everything down. 3.5 trillion was already a compromise and this proposals doesn't include more climate investments urgently needed.

Significant climate investments are not happening.  Accept that.

Yup, it will for sure come back to haunt us. At this stage Europe and the PRC will compete for the world's global green power of the 21st century and America is pretty much out of the race. Hopefully states and the private sector can get more done.

[CookieDamage]

So is this medicaid expansion happening or not?

[Mr.Phips]

I feel like the apparent failure to pass the Build Back Better plan is kind of similar to Trump's failure to repeal Obamacare in 2017. Both were more or less signature promises POTUS wanted to done in the 1st year, but a narrow senate majority prevents it from happening. Both cause severe outrage at the base and leaves POTUS with declining approval ratings.

Only difference is that Obamacare repeal failed due to the GOP's lack of a real alternative (something they have failed to come up with ever since the ACA was passed) while BBB only fails due to 2 stubborn senators with an out of time and out of touch mindset.

What are you talking about?

The Build Back Better plan is on track to pass by Halloween

It will be a 2 trillion dollar investment in the safety net, largest since the Great Society. Passing it will be a huge success, not failure.

Paid leave, Medicaid expansion, Obamacare subsidiese, pre-k, child care

These are all popular with the base unlike Obamacare repeal. Even Republicans were wary of fulling repealing it, knowing thousands of stupid republicans actually get health insurance through Obamacare

Recent days more sounded like Manchin and Sinema don't care whether anything passes. I still consider it a disappointment to water everything down. 3.5 trillion was already a compromise and this proposals doesn't include more climate investments urgently needed.

Significant climate investments are not happening.  Accept that.

Yup, it will for sure come back to haunt us. At this stage Europe and the PRC will compete for the world's global green power of the 21st century and America is pretty much out of the race. Hopefully states and the private sector can get more done.

With states, you pretty much have to rely on the West coast, New York, and New England (except ME and NH) for any climate change legislation.  Those are the only states where Dems are guaranteed to have the ability to pass this type of legislation.

[7,052,770]

So is this medicaid expansion happening or not?

Probably not this year. We need to get whatever we can passed quickly and regroup for a new strategy for 2022.

[CookieDamage]

So is this medicaid expansion happening or not?

Probably not this year. We need to get whatever we can passed quickly and regroup for a new strategy for 2022.

Where are yall seeing that it isn't happening?

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/Kevinliptakcnn/status/1451344474458804229
https://twitter.com/mkraju/status/1451354718790471682
Who's the third?

[Person Man]

Say what you want about the process but if they get something, I am satisfied knowing that they got what they could get.

[Not Me, Us]

This bill is an insult. The Democrats will reap what they sow come midterms.

[It’s so Joever]

This bill is an insult. The Democrats will reap what they sow come midterms.

It’s not perfect, but for the next year I will pretend it was the best piece of legislation on Earth for partisan reasons.

[Pres Mike]

This bill is an insult. The Democrats will reap what they sow come midterms.

That very well may be the case next year, but we can't pretend this bill isn't a win

Millions of parents are going to get paid leave at last. Millions of low income people will get access to Medicaid in red states. Millions of seniors will get a yearly 800 voucher to pay for dental and it seems vision/hearing is now covered under Medicare. And Obamacare, covering 30 million Americans will remain very cheap for years to come. Millions of children will have the added benefits of pre-k. Childhood poverty has been cut in half. Maybe Pell grants are doubled, helping millions of college students.

[7,052,770]

This bill is an insult. The Democrats will reap what they sow come midterms.

Buck up. The American Rescue, infrastructure, and BBB combine to be, what, 4-5 times bigger than the 2009 stimulus? And that was a really big deal at the time.

We still have 14 months (hopefully more) to control Congress and keep fighting for everything that didn't make it in.

[jojoju1998]

Pre K is staying at least.

[Torie]

This is the soap opera that just keeps on giving. If I were a TV producer, and got this script, I would have tossed it in the trash as just too far beyond the looking glass to allow one to suspend their disbelief.

The same thing goes for the Jan 6 saga of course, including both as to what led up to it, and its aftermath, with the defeated POTUS running around Captain Queeg like still claiming it was all stolen as he works the marbles in his hand, with the bulk of the Pub party either cowering in the closet in the fetal position, enabling him, or actually egging him on for more. When I saw that script I laughed so hard that I almost got a hernia as I tossed that one into the midst of the crackling logs in the working fireplace.

[emailking]

If it was a script it would be boring af.

[Farmlands]

I feel like the apparent failure to pass the Build Back Better plan is kind of similar to Trump's failure to repeal Obamacare in 2017. Both were more or less signature promises POTUS wanted to done in the 1st year, but a narrow senate majority prevents it from happening. Both cause severe outrage at the base and leaves POTUS with declining approval ratings.

Only difference is that Obamacare repeal failed due to the GOP's lack of a real alternative (something they have failed to come up with ever since the ACA was passed) while BBB only fails due to 2 stubborn senators with an out of time and out of touch mindset.

What are you talking about?

The Build Back Better plan is on track to pass by Halloween

It will be a 2 trillion dollar investment in the safety net, largest since the Great Society. Passing it will be a huge success, not failure.

Paid leave, Medicaid expansion, Obamacare subsidiese, pre-k, child care

These are all popular with the base unlike Obamacare repeal. Even Republicans were wary of fulling repealing it, knowing thousands of stupid republicans actually get health insurance through Obamacare

Recent days more sounded like Manchin and Sinema don't care whether anything passes. I still consider it a disappointment to water everything down. 3.5 trillion was already a compromise and this proposals doesn't include more climate investments urgently needed.

Significant climate investments are not happening.  Accept that.

Yup, it will for sure come back to haunt us. At this stage Europe and the PRC will compete for the world's global green power of the 21st century and America is pretty much out of the race. Hopefully states and the private sector can get more done.

The transition to green energy has been occurring at great speed for the past two decades, under Republicans and Democrats alike, and it's not suddenly stopping, regardless of what the climate provisions of this bill are. It's missing the big picture.

[GeneralMacArthur]

I don't know whether it's Trump or just social media in general but for some reason everyone's now acting like every single issue in America is a crisis that demands immediate, overwhelming force to solve, with zero regards for the future, and that politicians are the only people who have any agency to solve these problems.

No, the country is not going to collapse because your favorite agenda item didn't make it into this year's legislation.  People aren't going to starve and die without the latest and greatest welfare idea becoming law.  Biden's legislative climate agenda is not the tipping point between an eco-paradise and the flaming greenhouse apocalypse.

All of these policies are really good and would be really nice to have.  But it's not exactly unheard of for highly-ambitious legislation to get watered down in committee.  You may recall that the Republicans promised for seven years that they'd repeal Obamacare, and then when they got back in power the best they could do was repeal the individual mandate.

None of these things are immediate emergencies.  We can include them in other bills in the future.  The Biden Administration and state governments can take action on these issues without Congressional aid.  As can the private sector in many cases.  Change and progress are inevitable.  COVID was an immediate emergency and we got 100% of what we wanted in the ARPA.

So be happy with what we're getting.  It seems like it's still really good.  I'm as irritated as anyone at Manchin/Sinema yanking stuff out without much justification, but that's what a 1-vote majority is always going to entail.  Obamacare was the exact same way when we had a 1-vote supermajority and we spent like nine months arguing with a small handful of congressmen who kept wanting to yank stuff out or pull the plug entirely.  I think young people in particular don't remember the Obamacare fight so they're much more likely to freak out over this entire process.  In another 5-10 years we'll have another massive bill the Democrats have to negotiate for months to pass, and a new generation will be freaking out, and it'll be the zoomers saying "I remember the Manchin days, this is just how it goes."