French presidential election, 2022

[Geoffrey Howe]

Voilà. Brut numbers not percentages, but pretty much bang on 40% in the 3rd constituency. I couldn't find constituency results, but UK French voted 50,8% Hollande in 2012.

Generally the French abroad are like Macron perfect demographic - well educated, prosperous and liberal/internationalist in outlook. Especially the UK bunch who are overrepresented in things like the finance industry.

Ah, merci bien. I was looking at the Ministère de l'Intérieur site which goes down to commune in the hexagon, but not to constituency for French abroad.
We had pretty awful turnout in that election, didn't we?. The Swiss seemed rather keen on Fillon in 2017, to which you no doubt contributed  

[Geoffrey Howe]

Realistically there won't be a join left candidate.

So given that Macron is guaranteed to beat Le Pen the only way he can lose is if Bertrand somehow makes the run-off and a lot of left wing voters stay home?

Looking at some of the polls, it's not guaranteed, especially if he has some additional issues going on. That said, the way things stand, I struggle to see Le Pen beating him in the runoff. I'll wait to see him trounce her in the debate.

[Geoffrey Howe]

I assumed Zemmour was a no-hoper.

The point is more, if he's at close to 10%, then it's pretty obvious whose electorate most of that 10% is coming from.

Obviously Le Pen, but what sort of Le Pen supporters are his? Maybe more of a Dupont-Aignan crowd? I don't really know much about M. Zemmour to be honest.

[Geoffrey Howe]

Ah, merci bien. I was looking at the Ministre de l'Intérieur site which goes down to commune in the hexagon, but not to constituency for French abroad.
We had pretty awful turnout in that election, didn't we?. The Swiss seemed rather keen on Fillon in 2017, to which you no doubt contributed  

French people in Switzerland are and have always been noticeably right-wing, in part thanks to the tax exile crowd. Old aged socially conservative tax exiles were like Fillon's dream demographic: I remember seeing some results by precinct in 2017 that had him on like 50% in the first round in the wealthy eastern suburbs of Geneva.

IIRC Fillon's best results abroad were from Israel. May I ask who you supported in the last election? Mélenchon? Hamon? Macron, subsequently to be disappointed?

[Geoffrey Howe]

They already passed a link before, but this is other link where you can download the results of the past European elections even by FPTP constituencies. Even if they're only with raw data, doing some calculations, the results for that constituency were:
Renaissance/LREM alliance 39.97%
EELV alliance 24.57%
PS alliance 6.75%
LR alliance 5.82%
La France insoumise 4.46%
Generation.s-DiEM25 4.15%
UDI/The Europeans 3.76%
RN 3.16%

Ah, thanks for this. I once saw some data down to the bureau de vote (in London there are two; one in Harrow, and one in the consulate in Kensington) - do you know where that can be accessed?

[Geoffrey Howe]

Is it so that Macron's best hope is if he is up against Le Pen, and vice versa is also true?

I think I saw some polls with Le Pen beating the Hidalgo (PS) and beating by a large margin Mélenchon. Don't know whether to take them at face value, but they suggest she would be better off facing the left.
As for Macron, I suspect she is the best candidate to be against; unpalatable to much of the electorate - that is many simply will not vote for anyone in a Macron/Le Pen runoff, whereas they might actively vote for someone else against Macron - and perhaps people are beginning to tire of her.

[Geoffrey Howe]

IIRC Fillon's best results abroad were from Israel. May I ask who you supported in the last election? Mélenchon? Hamon? Macron, subsequently to be disappointed?

I supported Hamon, rather naïvely in retrospect. Were the situation of 2017 to repeat itself, I would pretty easily support Poutou as a firt option, on the basis he seems like the only figure on the left to have any integrity. Unfortunately, he's rules himself out of standing next year, so it's back to the drawing board - basically anyone on the left, but hopefully not Jadot in practice.

Did you vote last time round?

I guess you dislike Mélenchon then, because he seemed to have the best chance of doing well of the leftwing candidates. Did you support Macron in the second round (without the hindsight)?

No I couldn't vote (still can't). From the little I knew I was supporting Macron. I believe my father was quite enthusiastic for Juppé, admiring him as mayor of Bordeaux; he started supporting Macron early on though.

[Geoffrey Howe]

I guess you dislike Mélenchon then, because he seemed to have the best chance of doing well of the leftwing candidates. Did you support Macron in the second round (without the hindsight)?

No I couldn't vote (still can't). From the little I knew I was supporting Macron. I believe my father was quite enthusiastic for Juppé, admiring him as mayor of Bordeaux; he started supporting Macron early on though.

Yeah, there are a lot of things I don't like about him, even if there are quite a few people in LFI I have a more positive opinion of. I would be more prepared to support him this time round though, because the situation seems more desperate and he seems to compare (much) less badly relative to other figure than he did 5 years ago.

Is it a citizenship issue why you can't vote? I've no idea what the French rules wrt voting abroad are, but I don't think there is a time limit like other countries have

You seem quite anti-Macron; would you vote Bertrand over Macron? With the latter's shift to the right, I don't really know what the difference between them is. Generally I don't understand the non-Le Pen right who are still anti-Macron.

[Geoffrey Howe]

You seem quite anti-Macron; would you vote Bertrand over Macron? With the latter's shift to the right, I don't really know what the difference between them is. Generally I don't understand the non-Le Pen right who are still anti-Macron.

No, age 

Ah, eventually then

I woud vote blanc in a Macron v Bertrand second round - I'm a bit too lazy right now to explain fully why; but basically horror at his economic policies, attitude towards minorities, attemps to discredit and censor left wing thought combined with the pure arrogance of thinking that he is somehow entitled to left wing votes in a second round. I very much resent being blackmailed in that way.

Bertrand's electorate I think essentially consists of old people to be honest. Basically people who don't like the more progressive sides of Macron's outlook (the pro-europeanism, rhetoric about feminism etc...) but also don't like the perceived extremism of Le Pen (ie, they're old enough to remember the father). Bertrand has a much more classical conservative profile (ie themes like "the value of work" or "authority"), which seems like it still has an electorate willing to back it.

I don't think I'd be to excited about his prospects just yet though, even if he seems to have a certain electorate right now, there's a degree of "blank page" about him. Never underestimate the sheer degree to which French politics is motivated by complete disdain for everything and everyone. And as hinted above, he is also very weak outside of the certain demographic (older and wealthier) that seems to be behind him at the moment

Darmanin in particular seems very obnoxious.

Ah, the French electorate. As someone I know likes to say, ils veulent tout et son contraire.

[Geoffrey Howe]

It would be really hard for me to decide who to vote for in the first round, were I able to vote. Being British I have a visceral dislike of Macron but if I were French I might have a more positive opinion of him.

Macron, it seems, is perceived as some sort of southern European leftist here. Just look at the Telegraph.

Did you support anyone last time round? From the little I know about you, you seem somewhat Eurosceptic, economically centrist, a bit socially conservative; but generally quite moderate. Modern SDP? I think there are a lot of voters like that in France. Not sure who you might like. Bertrand?

[Geoffrey Howe]

More details on the Ipsos/Cevipof poll

On Macron
- 38% have a positive view of his presidency
- 23% like him and his policies, 16% like him but dislike his policies, 12% dislike him but like his policies, 49% dislike him and his policies

Judgment on the candidates's personalities
3 candidates have a strong base : Macron, Le Pen and Mélenchon. The others have a hard time to seduce even among their party's base. Bertrand is in the middle.
But overall the candidates are not well liked.

Would ... do better than Macron?
Le Pen - Better 28%, Same 25%, Worse 47%
Bertrand - Better 21%, Same 57%, Worse 22%
Mélenchon - Better 16%, Same 29%, Worse 55%
Jadot - Better 14%, Same 43%, Worse 43%
Hidalgo - Better 14%, Same 41%, Worse 45%

Mélenchon really is disliked by the rest of the electorate; more than Le Pen. Striking.

[Geoffrey Howe]

It would be really hard for me to decide who to vote for in the first round, were I able to vote. Being British I have a visceral dislike of Macron but if I were French I might have a more positive opinion of him.

Macron, it seems, is perceived as some sort of southern European leftist here. Just look at the Telegraph.

Did you support anyone last time round? From the little I know about you, you seem somewhat Eurosceptic, economically centrist, a bit socially conservative; but generally quite moderate. Modern SDP? I think there are a lot of voters like that in France. Not sure who you might like. Bertrand?

You've read me well, only correction is that I'd say I'm more economically left of centre and pro-localism/regionalism and also not uniformly conservative as I'm not against immigration - perhaps the continuity SDP would be the best fit for me, I've never thought to join them or anything. As I have said before, I've voted for four different parties in the past.

I didn't feel a strong attachment to any of the candidates last time - if I had to pick I would've said Dupont Aignan but I went off him a bit after he endorsed Le Pen as emphatically as he did. I liked Lassalle's regionalism but he seemed a bit crazy at times; Fillon I thought was worst major candidate for a whole variety of reasons, and I disliked Macron for his elitism and Europhilia. Hamon I have no strong opinion of, though I thought he was better than Valls and I disliked all the candidates that were extreme: Arthaud, Asselineau, Cheminade, Le Pen, Melenchon, Poutou etc. (the latter two I wouldn't vote for but I could sort of respect them as politicians.)

A bit left-field, but how about Green? I don't really know what they're like in France (fairly standard centre left I think).

[Geoffrey Howe]

Conservatopia, have you taken a leaf out of olawakandi's book? It's SIR WINSTON CHURCHILL, by the way.

[Geoffrey Howe]

https://twitter.com/lucas_jaku/status/1382607044558086144?s=20
https://twitter.com/lucas_jaku/status/1382607586487373829?s=20
Similar sort of age patterns at the extremes to last time though perhaps more pronounced.

Excellent analysis in the comments...

Aucun des plus de 65 ans autour de moi revotera Macron. À un an des présidentielles ce genre de sondage fait juste plaisir aux sondeurs.

(None of the over-65s around me will vote for Macron again. A year away from the presidential this sort of poll just pleases pollsters.)

[Geoffrey Howe]

With the way things are going, how do you expect Paris 16ème to vote in the first round? Clearly it's between Macron and Bertrand. (Neuilly would be interesting too; in fact it's slightly to the right even of 75016.)

For reference:

2019 européennes

LREM   25 294     46,10%
LR/      13 289   24,22%
EELV    4 606    18,40%
FN       4 523    8,24%


2017 présidentielle

M. François FILLON           46 734   58,45%
M. Emmanuel MACRON   21 304   26,65%
M. Jean-Luc MÉLENCHON   4 315   5,40%
Mme Marine LE PEN           3 273   4,09%
M. Benoît HAMON           2 353   2,94%

M. Emmanuel MACRON   59 031   87,37%
Mme Marine LE PEN           8 533   12,63%

2012 présidentielle

M. Nicolas SARKOZY          47 233   64,85%
M. François HOLLANDE     10 583   14,53%
M. François BAYROU          6 281           8,62%
Mme Marine LE PEN          4 062           5,58%
M. Jean-Luc MÉLENCHON  2 324           3,19%

M. Nicolas SARKOZY          59 309   78,01%
M. François HOLLANDE     16 723   21,99%


Looking at the 2019 result, I say Macron.

[Geoffrey Howe]

What are changes of Le Pen actually winning?  Its highly likely she does better than 2017 and probably cracks 40%, but could she actually win? 

I find this highly unlikely. I think it's pretty clear that she and Macron will make it to the second round. Then at least half the country will hate her more than Macron. You have the issue of turnout, and certainly his victory will be less convincing than last time, but I think three things are working in his favour:

1) Although you won't hear it here, he is very popular...by French standards. He has a floor of about 30% approval, which is much higher than the previous two presidents. This is more extraordinary than it might seem: it means he is likely to be the first president in power to be re-elected since de Gaulle.

2) He is polling just over 55% against Le Pen. I think a lot of these people say the won't vote Macron now, but in a year's time, when push comes to shove, they will; also if there is another debate he will probably trounce her and convince some people. (For example, I know someone last time who claims he was going to vote blanc and decided to vote Macron after the debate.)

3) Lots of people who really dislike him, even if they will not vote for him, are not actually going to vote for Le Pen. There are people like this on Atlas. Whereas if it were another candidate, they might actively vote against Macron.

[Geoffrey Howe]

What are changes of Le Pen actually winning?  Its highly likely she does better than 2017 and probably cracks 40%, but could she actually win?  

I find this highly unlikely. I think it's pretty clear that she and Macron will make it to the second round. Then at least half the country will hate her more than Macron. You have the issue of turnout, and certainly his victory will be less convincing than last time, but I think three things are working in his favour:

1) Although you won't hear it here, he is very popular...by French standards. He has a floor of about 30% approval, which is much higher than the previous two presidents. This is more extraordinary than it might seem: it means he is likely to be the first president in power to be re-elected since de Gaulle.

wut

Chirac was PM when Mitterrand was re-elected; Jospin was PM when Chirac was re-elected.

[Geoffrey Howe]

A sobering thought: Mme Le Pen is now on her third presidential bid. So was M. Mitterrand in 1981.

[Geoffrey Howe]

Ah well, it's in the bag for Macron now he's won the youth vote by appearing in that video with Mcfly et Carlito...

Going on 15m views at the moment, which is... quite impressive in that it's more than one in every 5 people in the country. And not far of the 17m who watched the second round debate in 2017.

(and in other youtube news - we have a far right vlogger releasing a video calling for the "murder of leftists". France continues to be the worst timeline)

I think The Spectator had a piece about this saying "Macron fiddles as France burns."
The right wing press' hatred of Macron in the UK is quite odd (though explainable). They think of him as an irritating sanctimonious liberal.

[Geoffrey Howe]

Ah well, it's in the bag for Macron now he's won the youth vote by appearing in that video with Mcfly et Carlito...

Going on 15m views at the moment, which is... quite impressive in that it's more than one in every 5 people in the country. And not far of the 17m who watched the second round debate in 2017.

(and in other youtube news - we have a far right vlogger releasing a video calling for the "murder of leftists". France continues to be the worst timeline)

I think The Spectator had a piece about this saying "Macron fiddles as France burns."
The right wing press' hatred of Macron in the UK is quite odd (though explainable). They think of him as an irritating sanctimonious liberal.

It's really... one hell of a marketing coup that he still gives off that image abroad, given, you know, what his government has actually been, both in rhetoric and in policy. I dare say it is stems from him being reduced to  "pro-european" in anglosphere media talk, and the completely fantasised image of the the EU that exists among both pro and anti-Brexit circles in the UK.

Do you not find him sanctimonious and irritating...

[Geoffrey Howe]

https://www.lci.fr/politique/sondage-exclusif-presidentielle-2022-le-scenario-macron-le-pen-se-renforce-la-presidente-du-rn-en-hausse-2186903.html

In this poll from May 24th, Macron beats Le Pen 54-46

He does it by winning under 25s and over 65s, but Le Pen would win the 25-64 year old groups

How would you interpret this, and what do you think this means for possible evolution going towards the election and beyond?

I think these coalitions make more sense than one might think. If anything the vote against Le Pen from the elderly is still a conservative one - not voting for someone who isn't anything like a traditional French leader. Le Pen isn't a cultural Catholic either, is she? A lot of that group will remember De Gaulle's final years. The vote among the under 25s is more understandable, with their liberal internationalism and many of them being students or not actively looking for work.

Her best group is "Catholic but not practising."
There seems to have been a strong Catholic tradition on what you might call the liberal, pro-European right - e.g. Giscard - which I suppose you could argue Macron falls into. Since practising Catholics tend to be older, this is not surprising. Plus since Macron has governed more like the traditional right, who do best amongst over-65s in France (and most countries), he has a lot of support amongst pensioners; even though he did raise taxes on them.

[Geoffrey Howe]

https://twitter.com/SamGontier/status/1403065926937948160
tonight we learn that a right wing extremist slapping Macron is... actually the left's fault

*thumbs up emoji*

I know I should pay less attention to what is going in France, but... it's like watching a car drive off a cliff, as horrifying as it is you just can't tear your eyes away

Even the right is left-wing in France...

[Geoffrey Howe]

Valérie Pécresse is running. I understand she will present herself in the LR primary, unlike Xavier Bertrand.

[Geoffrey Howe]

I still can't see Macron losing. Plus, it seems that people are coming round to him on the vaccine passports - those who aren't are typical perpetually angry French people; if it weren't vaccines they would be angry about something else. I understand the Greens have quite a few anti-vax types so that may shore up Macron's support on the centre-left. Anyway, 8 months is a long way off!

[Geoffrey Howe]

Can anyone see Bruno Retailleau running? That would be a sure way to make LR even more irrelevant.