Nigerian Presidential Election, February 25, 2023

[Logical]

Eyeballing the preliminary results its looking like a runoff to me.

[Logical]

2 things about turnout. First, the Nigerian electoral roll (and population count) is completely unreliable and wildly overinflated.

Source: https://qz.com/africa/1221472/the-story-of-how-nigerias-census-figures-became-weaponized

Secondly, there are concerted efforts this time to make it more difficult for people to vote. Voting hours start at 8.30 am and end at 2.30 pm without any extensions allowed. So if electoral officials arrived as late as reported in many places, fewer people will be able to vote.

[Logical]

How exactly does the requirement that a winning candidate break a certain threshold in a certain number of states work? Is it the case that if two candidates make it to the runoff and one gets more votes, but his opponent has crossed 25% in the required number of states and the top vote-getter hasn't, then the opponent wins? (This strikes me as absurd, but I don't actually know if it's any more absurd than the Electoral College). What if no candidate breaks 25% in enough states -- which seems quite possible in such a regionally polarized country?

How does runoff qualification work? Is it just the top two raw vote-getters, or can a candidate qualify from a lower rank if they've broken 25% in enough states while one of the top vote-getters is very concentrated?

It's a little complicated. If the first placed candidate does not obtain at least 25% of valid votes in at least 25 of 36 states and the Capital then there will be a second round between them and second placed candidate. If in the second round neither candidate won 25% of valid votes in at least of 25 of 36 states again we go to a third round with the same candidates as the second round but this time the most voted for candidate simply wins.

[Logical]

Hold on, my understanding was that you need 25% of the vote in 25 of 36 states and a majority of the popular vote. While Tinubu's even vote distribution makes the first condition a near certainty and he's very likely to ultimately come first, it looks nigh impossible for him to win an outright majority and avoid a runoff.

I found the details here
https://www.stears.co/article/what-is-a-run-off-election-and-how-would-it-happen/

[Logical]

Oops. Never mind what I just said. I misread the BBC live report. You can read the whole she bang in their constitution here.

https://jurist.ng/constitution/sec-134

[Logical]

Given the number of states where Tinubu barely cleared the 25% threshold one has to wonder if his votes were efficient or rigged.