Nigerian Presidential Election, February 25, 2023

[NewYorkExpress]

The Presidential Election in Nigeria will take place on February 25, 2023.

Incumbent President Muhammadu Buhari is term-limited and unable to seek a third term. His party, the All Progressives Congress will hold their primary from June 6 to June 8.

The main opposition party, the People's Democratic Party has already held their primary, nominating former Vice President Atiku Abubakar.

[Agafin]

So PDP has again nominated Atiku? If the APC nominates a Christian, wouldn't that pretty much seal the election for them?

[NewYorkExpress]

The APC has nominated former Lagos State Governor Bola Tinubu.

[MaxQue]

So PDP has again nominated Atiku? If the APC nominates a Christian, wouldn't that pretty much seal the election for them?

They nominated a Muslim.

[Agafin]

So PDP has again nominated Atiku? If the APC nominates a Christian, wouldn't that pretty much seal the election for them?

They nominated a Muslim.

Yup, but he's a southerner (southwesterner to be more precise) which spices things up a bit.

It's sad that elections in Nigeria (like in most of Africa) are essentially tribal affairs because if people actually voted based on issues, there's no way the APC should have had any chance after what happened during the EndSARS movement (especially the "Lekki gate" thing). If I were a Nigerian voter, I'd probably be an Obi supporter but would tactically vote for Atiku as the  "lesser of the two evils".

[Agafin]

I do wonder how the North will vote this time around. It's pretty obvious that the Southwest wil support Tinubu while the Southeast will largely support Atiku. But will the North choose  the Fulani Muslim who has a little too much affinity with Igbos for their taste, or the Yoruba Muslim who has the support of the outgoing northern  president.

[SnowLabrador]

Nigeria sounds like it's almost as polarized as the US.

[Agafin]

So PDP has again nominated Atiku? If the APC nominates a Christian, wouldn't that pretty much seal the election for them?

Well, the APC has pretty much done the opposite of this as their nominee (Tinubu) has just selected a northern Muslim to be his running mate. What a mess.

[PSOL]

Nigerian elections are a sham, they rigged it last time and right now will be of no importance to how Nigeria is going to continue running under the current regime.

So PDP has again nominated Atiku? If the APC nominates a Christian, wouldn't that pretty much seal the election for them?

They nominated a Muslim.

Yup, but he's a southerner (southwesterner to be more precise) which spices things up a bit.

It's sad that elections in Nigeria (like in most of Africa) are essentially tribal affairs because if people actually voted based on issues, there's no way the APC should have had any chance after what happened during the EndSARS movement (especially the "Lekki gate" thing). If I were a Nigerian voter, I'd probably be an Obi supporter but would tactically vote for Atiku as the  "lesser of the two evils".

The massive amount of state suppression in Nigeria would not allow for such a movement to occur. There is also the issue that the End SARS protests was essentially a protest by working Nigerians to end violence upon them, and that’s opposed by most major businesses in Nigeria and does not fly well with fief lords fearful of the people they rule over.

[NewYorkExpress]

Peter Obi, who is running on the Labour Party line, just saw his campaign chief get convicted of money laundering.

A Nigerian High Court in the capital, Abuja, has found the campaign leader for high-profile presidential candidate Peter Obi guilty of money laundering.

Doyin Okupe was, among other charges, convicted of receiving over $400,000 (£330,000) from an individual without following the correct procedures.

This is likely to deal a major blow to the presidential campaign of Mr Obi.

He has presented himself as a break with previous leaders and parties tainted by corruption.

The elections are due in just two months' time. Okupe is the director-general of Mr Obi's campaign organisation and a key ally.

Nigeria's anti-corruption agency, the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission, had charged Okupe in 2019 for money laundering and diversion of funds.

This was before he began working for Mr Obi. He was accused of accepting money in 2015 in excess of the amount that is allowed without having to declare it to the authorities.

Delivering the judgement on Monday, Justice Ijeoma Ojukwu said that Okupe had violated the Money Laundering Act, and sentenced him to two years in prison - though there is the option to pay a fine.

[NewYorkExpress]

Election Day Today!

To win, a candidate must garner a sufficient number of ballots to meet the 25% vote spread in 24 of Nigeria’s 36 states. In the absence of this, a second round run-off between the top two candidates will be held within 21 days.

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

From what I've seen there's some pretty wild cases of voter intimidation and fraud from the APC but Obi seems likely to prevail regardless.

EDIT: some examples:

https://twitter.com/SavvyRinu/status/1629474797003350016

https://twitter.com/Charles91253085/status/1629473916384059393

https://twitter.com/Msmenalicious/status/1629481654405177346

https://twitter.com/IgweOdyssey/status/1629487832770179072

https://twitter.com/Wisdomoriginal_/status/1629483097216385025

https://twitter.com/TaofiqSz/status/1629485814089494531

[Oryxslayer]

From what I've seen there's some pretty wild cases of voter intimidation and fraud from the APC but Obi seems likely to prevail regardless.

EDIT: some examples:

I don't want to say that's "normal" but the shady side of politics is much more prevalent in any young (relative) democracy.  I mean in 2019 turnout went up by over 200% compared to 2015 in some NE states because boko haram was literally occupying some polling sites in that election.


On another's,  but more relevant note, the count here will take several days, with the largest states being the slowest to announce results.  At least that's what happened last time.

[jaichind]

Stears projection

[jaichind]

Will be a big deal if Peter Obi is elected because he is an Igbo. Might bring out tensions from the Biafra conflict.

[Keep Calm and ...]

Stears projection

This isn't a projection or exit poll from today
https://twitter.com/setting923/status/1629475026213777408

[jaichind]

Stears projection

This isn't a projection or exit poll from today
https://twitter.com/setting923/status/1629475026213777408

Correct.  Sorry, I should have made it clear that it was a pre-election survey.

[jaichind]

Obi could really struggle on those numbers due to the state votes requirements.
I think Tinubu has this but I hope I'm wrong.

If Obi wins a plurality I doubt he can avoid a runoff.  And in a runoff, they could re-run the Biafra war of the North and West uniting to take on the East.

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

https://twitter.com/his_victorious/status/1629588716946694144

If this is accurate it looks like Obi wins the first round thanks to a dominant performance in the south but won't avoid a runoff. EDIT: Just a preelection poll, or possibly an exit poll. We'll see how it matches up the actual results...

More crazy videos from the election:

https://twitter.com/omoelerinjare/status/1629535571667218434

https://twitter.com/Iykayofficial/status/1629510708424581123

https://twitter.com/SavvyRinu/status/1629442233026871297

https://twitter.com/SavvyRinu/status/1629582183860953088

[jaichind]

This looks like a pre-election poll.  I do not see how someone can vote for "undecided" in an election

[Oryxslayer]

This looks like a pre-election poll.  I do not see how someone can vote for "undecided" in an election

Like I said upthread: while there may be a exit poll, the results will be slow to come. Unless things have changed, states operate under their own timetables to release results, and some wait until everything is counted. Buhari did not 'win' until a few days after polls closed - mainly cause the large Southern urban states were the slowest counters.

[jaichind]

It seems by now there should be some results but none are forthcoming.  No idea why there are delays.  My guess is an organizational mess.

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

finally found what seems to be a decent source of the results counted up to this point by independent collators

[Logical]

Eyeballing the preliminary results its looking like a runoff to me.

[Agafin]

I'm seeing a lot more tensions between PDP and Labour than between Labour and APC and that's really bad for PDP because they'd absolutely need the support of labour voters in a potential runoff against APC.

Edit:So it seems like there is a minor party NNPP with its candidate Kwankwaso who is chipping votes away from PDP in the North. And then you have the Labour party taking votes from PDP in the South. Is Atiku Abubacar so uncharismatic? He seems to be boxed out from everywhere by former party colleagues.

Edit2: Hmmm things are still very volatile.The North (the Northwest in particular ) seems to be a "swing region".