Nigerian Presidential Election, February 25, 2023

[Agafin]

Looking at outstanding votes I think Obi narrowly wins Lagos.  He was always going to do well in heavy urban areas even beyond his core region in the East.

So Tinubu might lose two Southwestern states (Osun and Lagos). Really bad for him.

But is it not his job just to win a plurality and then get >25% in >24 states?  He seems to be in a good position to do both. And even if he does not he seems to be in a good position to win the runoff.

While he's hitting the 25% in 2/3 states, he might fail to reach the plurality. Tinubu doesn't seem to be benefitting from block voting anywhere. That's also why I'm looking at turnout just as much as actual margins. The NorthWest was typically where Buhari ran up the score and they are all down from 2019. We need to see some SS and especially SE results to see how high their turnout is. Obi is probably getting 90%+ in Anambra but it makes a huge difference if he does it with 20% turnout or 40%.

You are right though that in an eventual runoff, Tinubu starts as the favorite but you never know. Maybe Obi can make an alliance with Atiku?

[jaichind]

PDP and LP both are claiming they won and at the same time also claiming fraud and that the results being shown are not legit.  Seems that is a good sign that Tinubu is in good shape.  To be fair, they have a point.  This entire process has been a complete joke but I still think that is an issue of incompetence and not a fraud.

[Logical]

2 things about turnout. First, the Nigerian electoral roll (and population count) is completely unreliable and wildly overinflated.

Source: https://qz.com/africa/1221472/the-story-of-how-nigerias-census-figures-became-weaponized

Secondly, there are concerted efforts this time to make it more difficult for people to vote. Voting hours start at 8.30 am and end at 2.30 pm without any extensions allowed. So if electoral officials arrived as late as reported in many places, fewer people will be able to vote.

[Agafin]

The first South Eastern state to fully report (Enugu) has Obi getting 94% of the vote (456k turnout).

[Oryxslayer]

The first South Eastern state to fully report (Enugu) has Obi getting 94% of the vote (456k turnout).

The key here is about 50k more voters than 2019. Last time it looked like a close contest until we saw data from the SE and it was clear voter turnout plummeted, guaranteeing Buhari victory.

[Agafin]

By my count, Obi has already failed to get 25% in 13 states so he can't win in a single round anymore.

[jaichind]

Using a combo of official results and partial results I have it now at

APC     ~42%
LP       ~20%
PDP     ~31%

[jaichind]

Abia just came in as a Obi lanslide.  Still that just moves the numbers using my formal+informal numbers to

APC   ~41%
LP     ~22%
PDP   ~30%

There are not enough super pro-Obi states out there to close the gap especially when there are a bunch of other anti-Obi states out there with few results in.

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

Abia just came in as a Obi lanslide.  Still that just moves the numbers using my formal+informal numbers to

APC   ~41%
LP     ~22%
PDP   ~30%

There are not enough super pro-Obi states out there to close the gap especially when there are a bunch of other anti-Obi states out there with few results in.

I'm not sure about that. By my (extremely oversimplified) count of the uncounted and partially counted states you have

Igbo Core (very pro-Obi, 70%+):
Anambra
Imo
Abia
Ebonyi

Christian/Animist Majority/Plurality (quite pro-Obi, 45-70%):
Edo
Delta
Bayelsa
Benue
Plateau
FCT

Significant Christian/Animist Minority (somewhat pro-Obi, 15-45%):
Taraba
Nasarawa
Kaduna
Kogi
Cross River
Rivers
Akwa Ibom

No Significant Christian/Animist Minority (or they're Yoruba) (anti-Obi, <15%):
Sokoto
Kebbi
Zamfara
Niger
Kano
Bauchi
Borno

Whereas of the 13 fully counted states, 11 fall into the "anti-Obi" bucket. Even so, he won Lagos and pulled over 90% in Enugu with higher turnout when turnout (seems to be) down across the north, two very good signs for him. The partial results from the swingier central states seem pretty favourable for Obi as well, though of course that could change as more come in.

Still, if I were to put money on it I'd guess Obi at least makes the runoff, but with such low turnout any province with anomalously high turnout could dramatically change things.

[Vosem]

How exactly does the requirement that a winning candidate break a certain threshold in a certain number of states work? Is it the case that if two candidates make it to the runoff and one gets more votes, but his opponent has crossed 25% in the required number of states and the top vote-getter hasn't, then the opponent wins? (This strikes me as absurd, but I don't actually know if it's any more absurd than the Electoral College). What if no candidate breaks 25% in enough states -- which seems quite possible in such a regionally polarized country?

How does runoff qualification work? Is it just the top two raw vote-getters, or can a candidate qualify from a lower rank if they've broken 25% in enough states while one of the top vote-getters is very concentrated?

[jaichind]

My current count has official numbers from

Abia
Adamawa
Edo
Ekiti
Enugu
Gombe
Katsina
Kwara
Lagos
Ogun
Ondo
Osun
Oyo
Yobe

And unofficial partial numbers from some others.  Right now it is

APC    ~41%
LP      ~21%
PDP    ~30%

I figure I already have at least 1/3 of the vote accounted for.  What is outstanding seems to be even in terms of pro-Obi and anti-Obi votes.  The gap is just too much for Obi to catch up.  And my impression is that Tinubu most likely has >25% in >24 states.  if so he will just win in the first round with a plurality.

[Logical]

How exactly does the requirement that a winning candidate break a certain threshold in a certain number of states work? Is it the case that if two candidates make it to the runoff and one gets more votes, but his opponent has crossed 25% in the required number of states and the top vote-getter hasn't, then the opponent wins? (This strikes me as absurd, but I don't actually know if it's any more absurd than the Electoral College). What if no candidate breaks 25% in enough states -- which seems quite possible in such a regionally polarized country?

How does runoff qualification work? Is it just the top two raw vote-getters, or can a candidate qualify from a lower rank if they've broken 25% in enough states while one of the top vote-getters is very concentrated?

It's a little complicated. If the first placed candidate does not obtain at least 25% of valid votes in at least 25 of 36 states and the Capital then there will be a second round between them and second placed candidate. If in the second round neither candidate won 25% of valid votes in at least of 25 of 36 states again we go to a third round with the same candidates as the second round but this time the most voted for candidate simply wins.

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

Hold on, my understanding was that you need 25% of the vote in 25 of 36 states and a majority of the popular vote. While Tinubu's even vote distribution makes the first condition a near certainty and he's very likely to ultimately come first, it looks nigh impossible for him to win an outright majority and avoid a runoff.

[Logical]

Hold on, my understanding was that you need 25% of the vote in 25 of 36 states and a majority of the popular vote. While Tinubu's even vote distribution makes the first condition a near certainty and he's very likely to ultimately come first, it looks nigh impossible for him to win an outright majority and avoid a runoff.

I found the details here
https://www.stears.co/article/what-is-a-run-off-election-and-how-would-it-happen/

[jaichind]

Hold on, my understanding was that you need 25% of the vote in 25 of 36 states and a majority of the popular vote. While Tinubu's even vote distribution makes the first condition a near certainty and he's very likely to ultimately come first, it looks nigh impossible for him to win an outright majority and avoid a runoff.

Me too but I think it is plurality and majority.  I think I thought that is that the last few elections the winner always won an absolute majority so the plurality vs majority was never tested, until this election, of course.

[Antonio the Sixth]

One more fun fact, in order to win on the first round the first placed candidate MUST win the Federal Capital Territory. Which is why I predicted that it will go to a runoff early on since initial results there look favorable to Obi (at least if social media isn't lying to me).

Damn, the US could use a rule like that.

[Stuart98]

One more fun fact, in order to win on the first round the first placed candidate MUST win the Federal Capital Territory. Which is why I predicted that it will go to a runoff early on since initial results there look favorable to Obi (at least if social media isn't lying to me).

Source for that?

[Logical]

Oops. Never mind what I just said. I misread the BBC live report. You can read the whole she bang in their constitution here.

https://jurist.ng/constitution/sec-134

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

Hold on, my understanding was that you need 25% of the vote in 25 of 36 states and a majority of the popular vote. While Tinubu's even vote distribution makes the first condition a near certainty and he's very likely to ultimately come first, it looks nigh impossible for him to win an outright majority and avoid a runoff.

Me too but I think it is plurality and majority.  I think I thought that is that the last few elections the winner always won an absolute majority so the plurality vs majority was never tested, until this election, of course.

(2) A candidate for an election to the office of President shall be deemed to have been duly elected where, there being more than two candidates for the election-

(a) he has the highest number of votes cast at the election;

and

(b) he has not less than one-quarter of the votes cast at the election each of at least two-thirds of all the States in the Federation and the Federal Capital Territory, Abuja.
More: https://jurist.ng/constitution/sec-134

You're right. Once again Wikipedia's incorrect wording has led a poor soul astray.

Still, in theory Atiku could still overtake Tinubu in the popular vote without hitting the statewide vote threshold while Obi could narrowly win the most states, creating a PDP-LP runoff. Not likely, mind, but still possible.

As things stand (ignoring crazy outlier states or legal challenges) Tinubu is on track for the weakest victory of any Nigerian President since 1979, not a great omen for things to come

[jaichind]

A bunch of more pro-Obi unofficial results came in

APC     ~38%
LP       ~25%
PDP     ~29%

[locked_out]

I can't find any good live odds on this--is anyone aware of any? Or does anyone want to provide their subjective view of the odds that Tinubu wins outright/runoff/something more unexpected?

[jaichind]

I found a bunch more unofficial results, has a combo of pro-Obi and anti-Obi votes. Now I have it at

APC     ~38%
LP       ~24%
PDP     ~29%

[jaichind]

It seems almost certain that Tinubu will cross 25% in at least 25 states so all he needs to do is to hold on to his plurality which also seems very likely.

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

I can't find any good live odds on this--is anyone aware of any? Or does anyone want to provide their subjective view of the odds that Tinubu wins outright/runoff/something more unexpected?

Assuming nothing gets overturned or redone Tinubu is very, very likely to win outright, but by the narrowest margin imaginable. By my extremely oversimplified math and comparing with the officially certified results to this point adjusted by total state population, Obi is tracking to net around 1.6 million votes from the core Igbo states, which would get him just past Atiku, plus anywhere from a few hundred thousand to just under 2 million from the non-Yoruba Christian and Animist states, which could, optimistically, narrowly put him above Tinubu. The problem is that then there are six outstanding anti-Obi states left likely to subtract 1-2 million votes from that margin, plus three "swing" states that are likely to be close and won't impact the margin much.

Excluding legal or extralegal intervention basically everything would have to go wrong in the outstanding states for Tinubu to be forced to a runoff by either candidate since neither is hitting the 25% requirement to avoid a runoff even if they somehow won the popular vote. To give a number I'd go 90% Tinubu wins outright, 7% Obi forces a runoff with Tinubu, 3% Atiku forces a runoff with Obi.

Of course there are some pretty legitimate cases of election fraud that could be used to justify reruns. While probably not the worst example, the most absurd might be in Akwa Ibom, where fake election officials escorted by fake soldiers and fake policemen went from poll to poll breaking in and sabotaging the results.

[jaichind]

A bunch more official and unofficial results came in

APC     ~38%
LP       ~23%
PDP     ~30%

I figure this is at least 2/3 of the votes accounted for.  It seems Obi will come in third which is a surprise.  PDP totally outperformed.