Arizona megathread

[prag_prog]

I am quite worried about Hobbs tbh. A poll came out today which had Kelly leading by 50-43 but the same poll had Hobbs trailing by 44-46. I know Masters is a poor candidate and Kelly is an incumbent but still I didn't expect Hobbs to be running so much behind Kelly.

[prag_prog]

What a mess of a candidate Hobbs is turning out to be. She is gonna lose this race against that nutcase Lake

[prag_prog]

In the hindsight, I feel like I have been bit more harsher on Hobbs as a candidate..she probably isn't a great candidate but certainly not terrible. Her favourables look good in most of the Arizona polls I have seen so far. I just wish she would have accepted to debate.

At the end of day, Arizona is still like 3-5 points to right of the country and this was always going to be an extremely tight race. Kelly's lead in the polls is probably more due to him being incumbent and Masters lacking money and being a poor candidate.

[prag_prog]

In the hindsight, I feel like I have been bit more harsher on Hobbs as a candidate..she probably isn't a great candidate but certainly not terrible. Her favourables look good in most of the Arizona polls I have seen so far. I just wish she would have accepted to debate.

At the end of day, Arizona is still like 3-5 points to right of the country and this was always going to be an extremely tight race. Kelly's lead in the polls is probably more due to him being incumbent and Masters lacking money and being a poor candidate.

Agreeing to debate someone who appears on TV for a living is very risky when you don't also have that background.

I don't have much data on how much debates impact voters minds but I feel like not participating in debate is bad optics.

[prag_prog]

I am happy that Hobbs won..but just because Hobbs won doesn't necessarily mean she ran a great campaign. Her favorables were meh and she just came across a bland boring candidate..this election for me looked more like it was about Lake and in the end Lake acted bit too crazily and ended up losing. I think Hobbs would have lost if Lake acted just slightly more sanely.

I would like to get any insight from Arizonians here on this race and my assessment.

[prag_prog]

The meltdown on twitter over this result is delicious. Lot of conservative big accounts were already convinced before election that Lake was next big star, future president etc and now are shocked that she lost

[prag_prog]

she is not conceding

https://twitter.com/KariLake/status/1593251949201084423

[prag_prog]

Hobbs's margin in AZ is almost same as Biden's margin in 2020..I initially was wondering if there were some change in coalitions but when I looked at how Hobbs performance compares against Biden's 2020 performance county wise, it's crazy how similar both the performances are. Except couple of counties, Hobbs margin in every county is almost exactly same as Biden's margin (+/- 2).

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/11/08/us/elections/results-arizona-governor.html

[prag_prog]

I saw an interview of Hobbs which I think she gave yesterday..she definitely isn't the most comfortable when it comes to public speaking...was stumbling a bit here and there.

I really wonder how effective Hobbs can be considering GOP still has majority in state house & senate. As an outsider, it looks like there are some issues with public schools with regards to funding, teachers pay, facilities..based on the interview, this does seem to be Hobbs primary issue but wonder if the legislature is gonna work with her on this. It also looks like AZ state legislature slashed state income tax rates last year (was progressive tax rates from 2.5% to 4.5% and instead now became flat 2.5%) and Hobbs can't do anything repealing the tax cuts of top bracket.

One of the reasons I have been following this race bit closely is also because I have been planning to move to West but haven't decided which state...mostly planning to move to WA or AZ

[prag_prog]

https://twitter.com/endajodowd/status/1542915789845561346
If this is the cream of the crop for the AZ GOP, I feel pretty good about our chances in 2024/2026.

wow...what a mess this was

[prag_prog]

and some people think Ducey will be GOP senate candidate in 2024 lol...he seems to be despised by GOP base in AZ. I remember him having low approvals with Republicans in some recent AZ polls too

[prag_prog]

What really angers me in this whole mess is how these Republican grifters are knowingly spreading false information. They are spreading misinformation which can easily debunked by anyone who is remotely familiar with the AZ election process but they don't care and the base eats up without even checking basic stuff.

Just look at this comments under this grifter's tweet...

https://twitter.com/ChuckCallesto/status/1597277261732147205

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1597333550931398656

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1597330529858486272

[prag_prog]

Some of these people have gone insane....they literally don't even think a bit about these insane claims and are ready to believe any insane conspiracy theory. These people won't even trust the truth even if there is any proper evidence...not even sure how you can make these people sane again