Trump vs Harris - Arizona 2020

[Thunder98 🇮🇱 🤝 🇵🇸]

What would Arizona be like in a Harris vs Trump matchup in 2020?

[Greedo punched first]

Lean Harris.

[Peanut]

Tilt Harris

[Da2017]

Tossup Tilt Trump because is the incumbent,though it could be a pure toss up or maybe lean Harris if Harris turns out to be surprisingly strong Candidate. If the economy is in recession I could see it leaning Harris.

[Thunder98 🇮🇱 🤝 🇵🇸]

Toss-up if Trump's approval ratings avgs at least 45% and lean or tilts Harris if it avgs under 45%.

[NOVA Green]

Lean/Tilt Harris.

Honestly it's difficult for me to envision Trump winning Maricopa County in 2020, (and with it Arizona), regardless of whomever the Democrats choose to select as their nominee.

Considering Trump only received 47.7% of the Maricopa County Vote in 2016, and won it by less than 3% against HRC, who had some major liabilities with Registered Independent voters, it is difficult to see Trump improving his performance here.

We not only have some significant demographic changes in Maricopa County, with a relatively fast growing Metro area experiencing both net population growth from outside of Arizona, but additionally a growing chunk of younger voters coming of age, that are a fairly ethnically diverse lot, as well as politically one of Trump's weakest Demographics.

I mean if we look for example at what happened in CD-08 in the 2018 Special Election, which had one of the smallest swings between '12 and '16 between the major parties compared to many other parts of Maricopa County, it is looking pretty grim within the "breadbasket of Arizona voters".

Sure it's *possible* that Latino turnout might drop in 2020 compared to 2016 without "Sheriff Joe" on the ballot.... it's entirely possible that suddenly Middle and Upper-Middle Class Anglos might swing back a bit if they feel they are getting a major tax cut gain courtesy of Mr. Trump....

The problem is we don't have any real evidence that this is happening at all at this point, and if anything what data point we do have post November '16 would appear to indicate the opposite is occurring with a significant erosion of support among the most reliably Republican demographic, Anglo Senior Citizens sitting on some fairly comfortable assets when it comes to their retirement homes, that appear to be a bit upset at the Republican's attempt to gut "Obamacare" / Affordable Care Act.

I suspect we'll have a better clue on this come November 2018, which again should likely represent a much more favorable electorate for Republicans than a Presidential Election Year.

[Thunder98 🇮🇱 🤝 🇵🇸]

If a Democratic Candidate wins Maricopa County by 4%, would that be enough to win the entire state in 2020?

[Burke Bro]

Tossup/Tilt R. Trumps approval in Arizona is better than the national average.

[NOVA Green]

If a Democratic Candidate wins Maricopa County by 4%, would that be enough to win the entire state in 2020?

Traditionally Maricopa County votes more Republican than all of the other counties in the State combined, and accounts for an overwhelming chunk of the total Arizona Voting population regardless of Primary, GE, Presidential/ off-year elections....

This is heavily caused by Pima County (Tucson and suburban/exurban/rural), as well as to some extent significant Native American and Rural Latino populations elsewhere in the State....

If a Democratic Candidate is winning Maricopa by 4%, they are likely winning a statewide election in Arizona by more like 6%..... (Ballpark math here off the top of my head).

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Tilt R

[YE]

If a Democratic Candidate wins Maricopa County by 4%, would that be enough to win the entire state in 2020?

Traditionally Maricopa County votes more Republican than all of the other counties in the State combined, and accounts for an overwhelming chunk of the total Arizona Voting population regardless of Primary, GE, Presidential/ off-year elections....

This is heavily caused by Pima County (Tucson and suburban/exurban/rural), as well as to some extent significant Native American and Rural Latino populations elsewhere in the State....

If a Democratic Candidate is winning Maricopa by 4%, they are likely winning a statewide election in Arizona by more like 6%..... (Ballpark math here off the top of my head).

This. One thing people forget about 2016 election is how bad Clinton did with native Americans in general, so the rural Arizona counties are likely to swing back towards the Dems in 2020 (unless Warren is the nominee).

[Rookie Yinzer]

Tilt Harris

[here2view]

Tossup, but if you put a gun to my head I'd say Harris wins.

[TDAS04]

Tossup, but if you put a gun to my head I'd say Harris wins.

[pbrower2a]

Arizona looks as if it might go 51-47 for just about any Democrat.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Tossup. I'm still not convinced that 2020 will be the year for Arizona to vote Democratic again but it will definitely be competitive, or should I say Maricopa County will be competitive.

[The Undefeatable Debbie Stabenow]

Tilt Harris. I would expect her to do particularly well in the Southwest.

I also think Trump's pardon of Arpaio could really hurt him in Maricopa County should Harris choose to use it in her campaign in AZ. Let's not forget that Arpaio was ousted by a pretty significant margin there in 2016 (and he's not definitely not any more popular now, probably less so if anything), and if Trump loses Maricopa County it's probably over for him statewide.

[Greedo punched first]

Tilt Harris. I would expect her to do particularly well in the Southwest.

I also think Trump's pardon of Arpaio could really hurt him in Maricopa County should Harris choose to use it in her campaign in AZ. Let's not forget that Arpaio was ousted by a pretty significant margin there in 2016 (and he's not definitely not any more popular now, probably less so if anything), and if Trump loses Maricopa County it's probably over for him statewide.

A few Trump voters even voted for Paul Penzone. I don't think that small group of voters will forgive Trump for pardoning Arpaio. I think Harris wins Maricopa County and narrowly wins Arizona.

[Politician]

Tilt Harris

[Thunder98 🇮🇱 🤝 🇵🇸]

A razor thin Harris victory in AZ could look like this.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Tilt R,  Harris is likely to lose to Trump