French Presidential Primaries (MOVE TO INTL WHAT IFS!!!)

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Ahem. A fun, unplausible, and silly little idea that just sparked up. I'll make as if France used an American-like tradition for presidential primaries.

I'll choose a small department at random to be the "Iowa" of this scenario.

Each party will have a primary system, using the same dates. But different delegate allocation techniques.

More candidates of course for each party.

I'll do 2007 first and see how that goes.


Calendar: To be updated

May 2006

May 16, 2006: Jura primary
May 23, 2006: Hautes-Alpes primary
May 28, 2006: Meurthe-et-Moselle, Calvados, and Eure-et-Loir primaries
May 30, 2006: Bouches-du-Rhone primary

June 2006

June 6, 2006: Super Tuesday Primaries in Bas-Rhin, Alpes-Maritimes, Herault, Pas-de-Calais, Gironde, Loire, Allier, Marne, Yonne, Ille-et-Vilaine, Orne, Eure, Deux-Sevres, Correze, Charente-Maritime, Vosges, Ardeche, Drome, Corse-du-Sud, Haute-Corse, Martinique, Nievre, Doubs, Aisne, Val-de-Marne, and Yvelines
June 11, 2006: Rural Sunday Primaries in Lozere, Haute-Loire, Cantal, Aveyron, Lot, and Alpes-de-Haute-Provence
June 12, 2006: Haute-Marne primary
June 13, 2006: Loire River Primaries in Loire-Atlantique, Maine-et-Loire, Indre-et-Loire, Loir-et-Cher, Loiret, Cher, and Saône-et-Loire
June 14, 2006: Gers primary
June 18, 2006: Finistere, Cotes-d'Armor, Morbihan, Vendee, Landes, and Pyrenees-Atlantique
June 20, 2006: Ain, Rhone, Savoie, Haute-Savoie, Haut-Rhin, and Ardennes primaries
June 27, 2006: Sarthe, Mayenne, Manche, Aude, and Vaucluse primaries

July 2006

July 2, 2006: Creuse, Puy-de-Dome, Haute-Vienne, Vienne, and Seine-Maritime primaries
July 4, 2006: Meuse, Moselle, and Haute-Saone primaries
July 9, 2006: Charente, Dordogne, Indre, and Gard primaries
July 16, 2006: Belfort Territory, Cote-d'Or, Guadeloupe, Reunion, Aube, and Oise primaries
July 23, 2006: Lot-et-Garonne, Tarn-et-Garonne, Tarn, Haute-Garonne, Hautes-Pyrenees, Ariege, Guyane, and Pyrenees-Orientales primaries
July 25, 2006: Somme, Polynesie, Nouvelle Caledonie, and Wallis et Futuna primaries

August 2006

August 1, 2006: Saint-Pierre-et-Miquelon primary
August 6, 2006: Var and Nord primaries

September 2006

September 5, 2006: Seine-et-Marne, and Hauts-de-Seine primary
September 26, 2006: Paris, Essonne, Seine-Saint-Denis, and Val-d'Oise primaries

October 2006

October 1-8, 2006: French citizens abroad primary
October 9, 2006: Mayotte primary

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The French Iowa is...

JURA!


Région: Franche-Comté
Chef-lieu: Lons-le-Saunier
Population: (Ranked 79th) 255,500 (2006)
Population density:    50/km²
Land area: 4999 km²

Primary date: TUESDAY, MAY 16TH, 2006

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Calendar for all primaries has been posted in the first post.

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Ideas for some candidates:

PS (faction)

Royal
Fabius (Fabiusiens)
Strauss-Kahn
Montebourg (NPS)
Franck Pupunat (Far-left joke)
Bockel (liberals)
Hollande (majority)

Greenies (faction)

Voynet (leftie)
Cochet (centre-left ecologist)
Duflot (??)
Wehrling (centrist)
Desessard (very leftie, ex-Trot)

The "United Anti-Liberal Left Primaries" (PCF) [I'm unsure if I'll have a PCF-only primary or a big Trot-to-Commier free for all].

Buffet (majority)
Gremetz (insane 'Orthodox' PCF)
Besancenot

UDF

Bayrou (independent centrist)
de Robien (pro-UMP centre-right)

UMP

Sarkozy
Alliot-Marie
Goulard (anti-Sarkozy)
Dupont-Aignan (souverainiste)
Boutin (Christian right)
Kaci (libertarianistic souverainiste)

Nomination by convention only: FN, LO, LCR, PRG, MRC, Radical (right), CNIP, MEI, CAP21, PT, EDE, Royalists, FB etc.

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A big Commie free-for-all would be more interesting.

But the egomaniacs that make up 99.9% of the French far-left wouldn't want to lose.

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A big Commie free-for-all would be more interesting.

But the egomaniacs that make up 99.9% of the French far-left wouldn't want to lose.

Let's pretend they became more reasonable.

I suppose I can try that. Though each party will still hold separate conventions.

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Delegate totals for each primary and allocation rules to be posted today.

Unless I flip-flop, the delegate totals, for the sake of simplicity, will simply be the number of cantons in that department.

EDIT: Except for Paris, the delegates will be equal to the number of cantons. Paris will have 79 delegates, like the Nord.

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Delegates

Jura   29
   
Hautes-Alpes   21
   
M-et-Moselle   49
Calvados   47
Eure-et-Loir   37
   
Bouches-du-Rhone   80
   
Aisne   42
Allier 34
Alpes Maritimes   60
Ardeche   32
Bas-Rhin   60
Charente-Maritime   45
Correze   28
Corse-Sud   21
Deux-Sevres   35
Doubs   41
Drome   40
Eure   43
Gironde   68
Haute-Corse   23
Herault   58
Ille-et-Vilaine   56
Loire    50
Marne   43
Martinique   36
Nievre   27
Orne     31
Pas-de-Calais   70
Val-de-Marne   66
Vosges   36
Yonne   34
Yvelines   68
   
Alpes-de-Haute Provence   23
Aveyron   30
Cantal   22
Haute-Loire   27
Lot   24
Lozere   16
   
Haute-Marne   25
   
Cher    32
Indre-et-Loire    44
Loire-Atlantique   64
Loiret   46
Loir-et-Cher   33
Maine-et-Loire    51
Saone-et-Loire    43
   
Gers    25
   
Cotes-d'Armor   44
Finistere   54
Landes   35
Morbihan   48
Pyrenees-Atlantiques   46
Vendee   45
   
Ain   43
Ardennes    31
Haute-Savoie   48
Haut-Rhin    50
Rhone   75
Savoie   37
   
Aude   34
Manche   41
Mayenne   32
Sarthe   43
Vaucluse   42
   
Creuse   20
Haute-Vienne   35
Puy-de-Dome   46
Seine-Maritime    64
Vienne   37
   
Haute-Saone   28
Meuse   25
Moselle   59
   
Charente    34
Dordogne    37
Gard           48
Indre   28
   
Aube   32
Belfort   22
Cote-d'Or   42
Guadeloupe   37
Oise   51
Reunion   51
   
Ariege   22
Guyane   26
Haute-Garonne   63
Hautes-Pyrenees   28
Lot-et-Garonne   33
Pyrenees-Orientales   38
Tarn   35
Tarn-et-Garonne   27
   
N. Caledonie   40
Polynesie   45
Somme   43
Wallis   20
   
S-P-et-M   5
   
Nord    92
Var   57
   
Hauts-de-Seine   72
Seine-et-Marne   65
   
Essonne   63
Paris    85
Seine-Saint-Denis   71
Val-d'Oise 62
   
French abroad 5
   
Mayotte   19

TOTAL   4436
MAJORITY    2219

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Is there any speculation as to whether Chirac will run? He might get crushed in the first few primaries and drop out before Super Tuesday (like Lyndon Johnson in 1968).

Good idea. But I was more thinking along the lines of a Chiraquie (Alliot-Marie and Goulard)-Sarkozy duel.

I think Chirac knew that he would get crushed and his ego would make him stay out.

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In your case, Jura is a good idea for Iowa, even if a big "corn" or "wheat" département would be Eure-et-Loir.
Haut-Rhin would be fine as NH (or maybe Haute-Savoie).

I didn't try to match departments with states much. I just tried to have the same ideas with a few early primaries, a huge Super Tuesday, a "regional primary", a smaller Mini Tuesday, and a wrap up.

Do not forget Saint-Martin and Saint-Barthélémy: they will have MPs now !

Ah yes. I forgot about those two. Let them vote with Guadeloupe for now

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note to moderators: please move topic to Int'l what-ifs

It begins! I'll skip over the declarations and boring campaign quite fast and jump right into it. Of course, this timeline is massively unplausible and a few things have been altered from reality:

-larger party membership
-an organized party registration system
-weaker party bosses


September 19, 2005: Jean-Luc Mélenchon, the leader of the For the Social Republic (PRS) faction in the Socialist Party, is the first Socialist candidate to officially declare his intentions.

September 22, 2005: Rachid Kaci, the leader of the libertarian wing of the UMP, announces his candidacy.

October 10, 2005: Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, the leader of the hardline Gaullist wing of the UMP, announces his candidacy.

October 16, 2005: Laurent Fabius, former Prime Minister and Minister of Finances in the Jospin government forms an exploratory committee and his campaign places his participation in the primaries conditional on a good result for his motion in the November 2005 Socialist Le Mans Congress.

October 23, 2005: In a newspaper interview, the new PS President of Poitou-Charentes, Ségolène Royal, declares her "interest" in the primaries, though she does not form an exploratory committee.

October 25, 2005: Yves Contassot declares his candidacy in the Green presidential primaries.

October 31, 2005: Two candidates declare their candidacy: Christine Boutin, a member of the UMP's Christian right and Jean-Marie Bockel, a social liberal within the PS.

November 1, 2005: Yves Cochet, a Green MP from Paris, declares his candidacy in the Green primaries. He is joined three days later by Dominique Voynet, a Green Senator from Seine-Saint-Denis and Green candidate in 1995.

November 9, 2005: André Gérin, an "Orthodox" Communist deputy, announces his candidacy. Five days later, Roger Martelli, a Communist historian and rénovateur declares his candidacy.

November 13, 2005: François Bayrou, the President of the UDF, declares his candidacy from his small native village of Bordères, Pyrenées-Atlantiques.

November 18, 2005: The Socialist Congress opens in Le Mans. The majority faction led by incumbent leader François Hollande wins 53% of the motions vote, but Laurent Fabius wins a pleasing 22%, tied with the New Socialist Party current led by Arnaud Montebourg, Henri Emmanuelli and Vincent Peillon.

November 20, 2005: The Socialist Congress ends in the re-election, unopposed, of François Hollande as party leader. However, on the 22nd, Laurent Fabius confirms his candidacy. Arnaud Montebourg also declares his interest, while Ségolène Royal forms an exploratory committee.

November 29, 2005: Gilles de Robien, the sole UDF cabinet minister (Education) declares his candidacy in the UDF primaries, citing his dissatisfaction with the Bayrou strategy.

December 12, 2005: Ségolène Royal, the frontrunner, officially announces that she will be a candidate. François Hollande, the PS First Secretary and Royal's partner, has yet to declare his intentions.
 
December 14, 2005: Michèle Alliot-Marie, the Minister of Defense and the last President of the Gaullist RPR, declares her candidacy.

January 3, 2006: Marie-George Buffet, the Secretary General of the PCF, declares her candidacy.

January 6, 2006: The Hollande majority shows its cracks when Dominique Strauss-Kahn declares his candidacy in the Socialist primaries. More and more analysts say that Hollande will not run, based on poor internal polling and a division of his majority.

January 9, 2006: Pierre Moscovici endorses Dominique Strauss-Kahn. DSK seems to be presented as the majority's preferred candidate over the "rebellious" Fabius and the "novice" Royal. The same day, the leader of the small Utopia current, Franck Pupunat, declares his candidacy.

January 15, 2006: The Minister of the Interior, Nicolas Sarkozy finally declares his candidacy in the UMP primaries. He is seen as the frontrunner.

January 20, 2006: Prime Minister Dominique de Villepin announces his candidacy in the UMP primaries. He is seen as the second man in the race and the major representative of President Jacques Chirac's legacy.

January 31, 2006: Yann Wehrling, a centrist Green from Alsace, declares his candidacy.

February 9, 2006: Arnaud Montebourg declares his candidacy. However, Henri Emmanuelli and Vincent Peillon, his former allies in the NPS, fail to endorse him. Indeed, Peillon later endorses Royal, along with Julien Dray, another member of the NPS.


Declared Candidates as of February 10, 2006

Socialist
President of the Poitou-Charentes Regional Council and MP for the Deux-Sèvres Ségolène Royal
Former Minister and MP for Val-d'Oise Dominique Strauss-Kahn
Former Prime Minister and MP for Seine-Maritime Laurent Fabius
Senator for Essonne Jean-Luc Mélenchon
MP for Saône-et-Loire Arnaud Montebourg
Senator for the Haut-Rhin and Mayor of Mulhouse Jean-Marie Bockel
Franck Pupunat

UMP
Minister of the Interior and MP for the Hauts-de-Seine Nicolas Sarkozy
Prime Minister Dominique de Villepin
Minister of Defense and MP for the Pyrenées-Atlantiques Michèle Alliot-Marie
MP for Essonne Nicolas Dupont-Aignan
MP for Yvelines Christine Boutin
Rachid Kaci

UDF
President of the UDF and MP for the Pyrenées-Atlantiques François Bayrou
Minister of Education Gilles de Robien

The Greens
MP for Paris Yves Cochet
Senator for Seine-Saint-Denis Dominique Voynet
Deputy Mayor of Paris Yves Contassot
Yann Wehrling

PCF
MP for Seine-Saint-Denis and Secretary General Marie-George Buffet
MP for Rhône André Gérin
Historian Roger Martelli


May 2, 2006: 15 days from the Jura primary.

Ipsos poll for the Jura UMP primary
Sarkozy 41%
Villepin 32%
Alliot-Marie 20%
Kaci 3%
Boutin 3%
Dupont-Aignan 1%

Ipsos poll for the Jura PS primary
Royal 30%
Strauss-Kahn 24%
Fabius 23%
Montebourg 12%
Mélenchon 9%
Bockel 1%
Pupunat 1%

Ipsos poll for the Jura UDF primary
Bayrou 60%
Robien 40%

Ipsos poll for the Jura Green primary
Voynet 65%
Cochet 27%
Contassot 9%
Wehrling 9%

Ipsos poll for the Jura PCF primary
Buffet 60%
Gérin 33%
Martelli 7%


Primary delegate allocation rules: The delegate numbers were posted earlier. Delegates allocated proportionally to each candidate breaking 10%.

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Delegate numbers revised with new improved formula.

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May 13, 2006: Arnaud Montebourg announces that he will not be campaigning in the Hautes-Alpes and will put all his forces in Meurthe-et-Moselle (May 23, 49 delegates), Calvados (May 23, 47) and Bouches-du-Rhone (May 28, 80). By consequence, he is also not campaigning in Eure-et-Loir (May 23, 37).

May 15, 2006 - Final Jura polls:

Ipsos poll for the Jura UMP primary
Sarkozy 42%
Villepin 33%
Alliot-Marie 20%
Kaci 2%
Boutin 2%
Dupont-Aignan 1%

Ipsos poll for the Jura PS primary
Royal 28%
Strauss-Kahn 25%
Fabius 24%
Montebourg 11%
Mélenchon 10%
Bockel 1%
Pupunat 1%

Ipsos poll for the Jura UDF primary
Bayrou 59%
Robien 41%

Ipsos poll for the Jura Green primary
Voynet 67%
Cochet 22%
Contassot 6%
Wehrling 5%

Ipsos poll for the Jura PCF primary
Buffet 62%
Gérin 32%
Martelli 6%

May 16, 2006 - The Jura UMP Primary

Victor:

Nicolas Sarkozy



Nicolas Sarkozy 44.67% (14)
Dominique de Villepin 34.11% (10)
Michèle Alliot-Marie 17.32% (5)
Rachid Kaci 1.62%
Christine Boutin 1.15%
Nicolas Dupont-Aignan 1.13%

May 16, 2006 - The Jura PS Primary

Victor:

Dominique Strauss-Kahn



Dominique Strauss-Kahn 26.96% (8 )
Ségolène Royal 26.11% (8 )
Laurent Fabius 24.13% (7)
Arnaud Montebourg 10.96% (3)
Jean-Luc Mélenchon 10.12% (3)
Jean-Marie Bockel 1.08%
Franck Pupunat 0.64%

May 16, 2006 - The Jura UDF Primary

Victor:

François Bayrou



François Bayrou 59.11% (17)
Gilles de Robien 40.89% (12)

May 16, 2006 - The Jura Green Primary

Victor:

Dominique Voynet



Dominique Voynet 72.11% (24)
Yves Cochet 15.09% (5)
Yves Contassot 6.79%
Yann Wehrling 6.01%

May 16, 2006 - The Jura PCF Primary

Victor:

Marie-George Buffet



Marie-George Buffet 59.19% (19)
André Gérin 33.14% (10)
Roger Martelli 7.67%

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Note: I'll be covering the UMP May primaries first, then PS and so forth.

May 18, 2006: Nicolas Sarkozy cancels a meeting in Gap, Hautes-Alpes and moves on to Meurthe-et-Moselle, Calvados and Eure-et-Loir, where his campaign is expecting a large victory but desire to work on achieving the largest margin possible in the primaries to maximize the amount of delegates for Sarkozy in those delegate-rich early primaries. Dominique de Villepin appears in Gap, but he too moves on to Calvados and Eure-et-Loir (he knows he has little chances in Meurthe-et-Moselle.

May 19, 2006: Following a deceiving showing in Jura, Michèle Alliot-Marie focuses on the Hautes-Alpes, where she is strong, and has the benefit of having her partner, the President of the National Assembly Patrick Ollier (who represented the department until 2002) working the ground for her and setting up an important local machine. Unlike Sarkozy and Villepin, she decides to keep troops in the Hautes-Alpes hoping to win a surprise underdog victory in the small mountainous department to increase her campaign's visibility.

May 21, 2006 - Final Hautes-Alpes polls: Sarkozy and Villepin's decision to skip the primary has played into the hands of Alliot-Marie, who, with this and the help of Ollier's influence, ate into Sarkozy's poll numbers.

Ipsos poll for the Hautes-Alpes UMP primary
Alliot-Marie 35%
Sarkozy 33%
Villepin 25%
Kaci 3%
Boutin 2%
Dupont-Aignan 2%

May 16, 2006 - The Hautes-Alpes UMP Primary

Victor:

Michèle Alliot-Marie



Michèle Alliot-Marie 35.46% (8 )
Nicolas Sarkozy 31.97% (8 )
Dominique de Villepin 23.97% (5)
Rachid Kaci 5.61%
Nicolas Dupont-Aignan 1.98%
Christine Boutin 1.01%

Delegates as of now:
Sarkozy - 22
de Villepin - 15
Alliot-Marie - 13
Needed for Nomination: 2,219


May 24, 2006: Alliot-Marie's victory in the Hautes-Alpes has helped her poll ratings in the May 28 primary departments, but she still trails in all of them. She attempts to setup a base in Meurthe-et-Moselle, which is a rich prize with its 49 delegates, but she struggles.

May 25, 2006: A primary debate between Sarkozy, Villepin, Alliot-Marie, Kaci, Boutin and Dupont-Aignan in Metz, Meurthe-et-Moselle. Sarkozy takes the upper hand on security and immigration, popular themes in a department which voted for the far-right in 2002. Alliot-Marie and Villepin are unable to play the experience card on Sarkozy, though they attempt to portray him as dangerous and too far to the right. Sarkozy is seen to have won the debate, though it only noticeably improves his numbers in Meurthe-et-Moselle (where Sarkozy is concentrating his forces).

Ipsos poll for the Meurthe-et-Moselle UMP primary
Sarkozy 46%
Villepin 30%
Alliot-Marie 20%
Dupont-Aignan 2%
Kaci 1%
Boutin 1%

May 28, 2006 - The Calvados UMP Primary

Victor:

Nicolas Sarkozy



Nicolas Sarkozy 31.01% (16)
Dominique de Villepin 30.13% (16)
Michèle Alliot-Marie 28.7% (15)
Rachid Kaci 6.11%
Christine Boutin 3.19%
Nicolas Dupont-Aignan 0.86%

May 28, 2006 - The Eure-et-Loir UMP Primary

Victor:

Nicolas Sarkozy



Nicolas Sarkozy 36.55% (15)
Dominique de Villepin 28.64% (11)
Michèle Alliot-Marie 26.32% (11)
Rachid Kaci 5.64%
Christine Boutin 1.83%
Nicolas Dupont-Aignan 1.02%

May 28, 2006 - The Meurthe-et-Moselle UMP Primary

Victor:

Nicolas Sarkozy



Nicolas Sarkozy 52.19% (27)
Dominique de Villepin 24.49% (13)
Michèle Alliot-Marie 17.85% (9)
Nicolas Dupont-Aignan 2.37%
Rachid Kaci 1.99%
Christine Boutin 1.11%

May 29, 2008: Sarkozy had already started building up his powerful machine in the Bouches-du-Rhône, a very fertile ground for his campaign. He held a mass rally on the evening of the 28th in Marseille. His main focus was insecurity and immigration, a message also popular in the department with important North African immigration and insecurity problems.

May 30, 2006: The Bouches-du-Rhône UMP Primary

Victor:

Nicolas Sarkozy



Nicolas Sarkozy 50.09% (42)
Dominique de Villepin 33.11% (27)
Michèle Alliot-Marie 14.13% (11)
Rachid Kaci 1.02%
Nicolas Dupont-Aignan 0.98%
Christine Boutin 0.67%

Delegates as of now:
Sarkozy - 122
de Villepin - 82
Alliot-Marie - 59
Needed for Nomination: 2,219



Sarkozy: blue
Villepin: green
Alliot-Marie: red

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May 18, 2006: Following his surprise win in the Jura, Dominique Strauss-Kahn attempts to keep his momentum in the Hautes-Alpes primary, but his machine is weak in the department and faces a Royal machine which has been established longer in the department.

May 20, 2006: Martine Aubry, Mayor of Lille and former Minister of Labour, endorses Laurent Fabius. Aubry holds sway over the Nord, the department with the most delegates - 92. However, for Fabius to take advantage of Aubry's machine, he will need to be in the race on August 6, a time at which a candidate could potentially already have taken the Socialist nomination.

May 21, 2006: Campaigning in the Bouches-du-Rhône, Arnaud Montebourg decries the "excessive control" of the local party federation by Patrick Menucci and Jean-Noël Guérini, close supporters of the Royal campaign. Royal denies that her supporters are using intimidation tactics in their home departments. 

May 22, 2006 - Final Hautes-Alpes polls: The primary was largely forgotten by most candidates, except Royal and DSK. Fabius and Montebourg had both declared that the department was not in their strategy.

Ipsos poll for the Hautes-Alpes PS primary
Strauss-Kahn 35%
Royal 34%
Mélenchon 15%
Fabius 8%
Montebourg 6%
Bockel 1%
Pupunat 1%

May 23, 2006 - The Hautes-Alpes PS  Primary

Victor:

Dominique Strauss-Kahn



Dominique Strauss-Kahn 36.19% (9)
Ségolène Royal 32.21% (8 )
Jean-Luc Mélenchon 16.02% (4)
Laurent Fabius 7.54%
Arnaud Montebourg 5.74%
Jean-Marie Bockel 1.28%
Franck Pupunat 1.02%

May 24, 2006: Strauss-Kahn won a convincing victory, but the media largely ignored it and focused on the big campaigns in Calvados, Eure-et-Loir, and Meurthe-et-Moselle. All are classified as too close to call by the media.

May 25, 2006: A primary debate between DSK, Royal, Fabius, Montebourg, Mélenchon, Bockel and Pupunat is held in Caen, Calvados. Royal is cornered by Fabius, Mélenchon and Strauss-Kahn for her lack of political experience. However, the male candidates appear misogynist with their attacks on Royal, who manages to stay above personal attacks.

May 28, 2006 - The Calvados PS Primary

Victor:

Jean-Luc Mélenchon



Jean-Luc Mélenchon 25.14% (12)
Laurent Fabius 23.09% (11)
Ségolène Royal 21.09% (10)
Dominique Strauss-Kahn 18.64% (9)
Arnaud Montebourg 10.64% (5)
Jean-Marie Bockel 0.97%
Franck Pupunat 0.43%

May 28, 2006 - The Eure-et-Loir PS Primary

Victor:

Laurent Fabius



Laurent Fabius 27.63% (12)
Ségolène Royal 24.63% (11)
Dominique Strauss-Kahn 24.52% (10)
Jean-Luc Mélenchon 10.98% (4)
Arnaud Montebourg 9.11%
Jean-Marie Bockel 2.02%
Franck Pupunat 1.11%

May 28, 2006 - The Meurthe-et-Moselle PS Primary

Victor:

Ségolène Royal



Ségolène Royal 28.98% (16)
Laurent Fabius 27.16% (15)
Dominique Strauss-Kahn 19.64% (11)
Jean-Luc Mélenchon 14.11% (7)
Arnaud Montebourg 7.87%
Jean-Marie Bockel 1.13%
Franck Pupunat 1.11%

May 29, 2008: Following a very divided primary day, with Fabius, Royal and... Mélenchon each winning a department each, the candidates moved on to Marseille and the Bouches-du-Rhône, a department controlled by the allies of Royal, who expected a large victory with the help of the local party machine. Arnaud Montebourg, who had polled much lower than expected in the three primaries, did not drop out but warned that he would drop out if he did poorly on Super Tuesday (June 6).

May 30, 2006: The Bouches-du-Rhône PS Primary

Victor:

Ségolène Royal



Ségolène Royal 63.57% (80)
Laurent Fabius 9.98%
Dominique Strauss-Kahn 9.96%
Jean-Luc Mélenchon 8.12%
Arnaud Montebourg 6.53%
Franck Pupunat 1.09%
Jean-Marie Bockel 0.75%

Delegates as of now:
Royal - 133
DSK - 47
Fabius - 45
Mélenchon - 30
Montebourg - 8
Needed for Nomination: 2,219



Royal: red
Fabius: blue
DSK: green
Mélenchon: orange

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May 19, 2006: François Bayrou decides to skip the Hautes-Alpes primary, while Gilles de Robien only stages one rally in Gap on the evening of the 19th. He is hoping for a surprise win in the Hautes-Alpes against Bayrou.

May 21, 2006: In a surprise move, the President of the UDF parliamentary caucus, Hervé Morin, endorses Gilles de Robien over Bayrou. At the same time, Gilles de Robien distances himself from the government and attempts to build a more "independent" image while still reminding voters of the centre-right roots of the UDF and the danger that an alliance with the left would represent.

May 22, 2006 - Final Hautes-Alpes polls: Bayrou, despite not campaigning in the department, remains narrowly ahead.

Ipsos poll for the Hautes-Alpes UDF primary
Bayrou 52%
de Robien 48%

May 23, 2006 - The Hautes-Alpes UDF  Primary

Victor:

Gilles de Robien



Gilles de Robien 52.19% (11)
François Bayrou 47.81% (10)

May 24, 2006: de Robien, strong from a high-profile endorsement from a "Bayrouiste", won a surprise victory in the Hautes-Alpes. His next step was the Calvados, where he relied on the support of Claude Leteurtre, a UDF deputy from the Calvados close to Robien. de Robien also had his eyes on Eure-et-Loir, where internal polls gave him good numbers.

May 25, 2006: Bayrou refuses a primary debate for the 25th with de Robien.

May 28, 2006 - The Calvados UDF Primary

Victor:

Gilles de Robien



Gilles de Robien 56.17% (26)
François Bayrou 43.83% (21)

May 28, 2006 - The Eure-et-Loir UDF Primary

Victor:

Gilles de Robien



Gilles de Robien 50.09% (19)
François Bayrou 49.91% (18)

May 28, 2006 - The Meurthe-et-Moselle UDF Primary

Victor:

François Bayrou



François Bayrou 61.13% (30)
Gilles de Robien 38.87% (19)

May 29, 2008: Robien had a good day, winning two out of three primaries, though he badly lost the third one in Meurthe-et-Moselle. The attention turned to the Bouches-du-Rhône, where Bayrou had a lead in polls.

Ipsos poll for the Bouches-du-Rhône UDF primary (May 26)
Bayrou 63%
de Robien 37%

May 30, 2006: The Bouches-du-Rhône UDF Primary

Victor:

François Bayrou



François Bayrou 57.19% (46)
Gilles de Robien 42.81% (34)

Delegates as of now:
Bayrou - 142
de Robien - 121
Needed for Nomination: 2,219



Bayrou: orange
de Robien: blue

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May 19, 2006: Despite Voynet's landslide in her home department of Jura, the national race for the Green nomination appeared to be close. A national poll by CSA gave Voynet 41%, Cochet 39%, Wehrling 11% and Contassot 9%. Surprisingly, both major candidates - Voynet and Cochet - campaigned for the minor Hautes-Alpes primary.

May 22, 2006 - Final Hautes-Alpes polls:

Ipsos poll for the Hautes-Alpes Green primary
Voynet 44%
Cochet 40%
Contassot 8%
Wehrling 7%

May 23, 2006 - The Hautes-Alpes Green Primary

Victor:

Yves Cochet



Yves Cochet 42.63% (11)
Dominique Voynet 41.02% (10)
Yves Contassot 9.91%
Yann Wehrling 6.44%

May 24, 2006: Yves Cochet, strong from a surprise win in the Hautes-Alpes, shifts his machine to the Calvados where he is hoping for a strong victory. Voynet focused her efforts on Meurthe-et-Moselle, and, later, the Bouches-du-Rhône.

May 28, 2006 - The Calvados Green Primary

Victor:

Yves Cochet



Yves Cochet 50.11% (25)
Dominique Voynet 34.32% (17)
Yann Wehrling 10.02% (5)
Yves Contassot 5.55%

May 28, 2006 - The Eure-et-Loir Green Primary

Victor:

Yves Cochet



Yves Cochet 40.11% (17)
Dominique Voynet 39.68% (16)
Yann Wehrling 10.23% (4)
Yves Contassot 9.98%

May 28, 2006 - The Meurthe-et-Moselle Green Primary

Victor:

Dominique Voynet



Dominique Voynet 51.13% (27)
Yves Cochet 41.09% (22)
Yves Contassot 4.59%
Yann Wehrling 3.19%

May 29, 2008: The Green race was turning in a two-candidate race between Cochet and Voynet, with Wehrling as an outsider - but a possible kingmaker if the race ended up tied. The ultra-left current represented by Yves Contassot was sidelined by Voynet, as if the left of the party united behind her and not Contassot. Contassot had no delegates as of now and announced that he would hold a press conference on June 1 following the crucial Bouches-du-Rhône primary.

Ipsos poll for the Bouches-du-Rhône Green primary
Voynet 41%
Cochet 33%
Wehrling 15%
Contassot 11%

Wehrling benefited from the support of Jean-Luc Bennahmias, a centrist Green MEP from the department.

May 30, 2006: The Bouches-du-Rhône Green Primary

Victor:

Dominique Voynet



Dominique Voynet 41.29% (36)
Yves Cochet 34.16% (30)
Yann Wehrling 16.97% (14)
Yves Contassot 7.58%

Delegates as of now:
Voynet - 130
Cochet - 99
Wehrling - 23
Needed for Nomination: 2,219



Voynet: green
Cochet: orange
Contassot: red

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May 21, 2006: In the race for the Communist nomination, Buffet was far ahead though Gerin was winning surprisingly high results, a good sign for future primaries? There was little contest in the Hautes-Alpes, where all candidates except Buffet had not campaigned.


May 23, 2006 - The Hautes-Alpes PCF Primary

Victor:

Marie-George Buffet



Marie-George Buffet 78.95% (17)
Roger Martelli 10.92% (2)
André Gérin 10.13% (2)

May 24, 2006: The primaries in the Calvados and Eure-et-Loir were mostly under the radar, due to a weak party in those areas in general. However, the contest was in the Meurthe-et-Moselle and the Bouches-du-Rhône. Both departments had stronger PCF infrastructure.

May 28, 2006 - The Calvados PCF Primary

Victor:

Marie-George Buffet



Marie-George Buffet 69.17% (33)
Roger Martelli 15.97% (7)
André Gérin 14.86% (7)

May 28, 2006 - The Eure-et-Loir PCF Primary

Victor:

Marie-George Buffet



Marie-George Buffet 67.16% (28)
Roger Martelli 23.16% (9)
André Gérin 9.68%

May 28, 2006 - The Meurthe-et-Moselle PCF Primary

Victor:

Marie-George Buffet



Marie-George Buffet 58.17% (28)
Roger Martelli 24.60% (12)
André Gérin 18.67% (9)

May 29, 2008: Gérin's surprising score in the Jura did not hold up and the reformist candidate Roger Martelli, despite a very low name recognition, took the second place in the PCF race while Gérin hovered slightly above 10% nationally. The race moved to the Bouches-du-Rhône, an historical stronghold of the PCF.

May 30, 2006: The Bouches-du-Rhône PCF Primary

Victor:

Marie-George Buffet



Marie-George Buffet 43.56% (35)
Roger Martelli 35.96% (29)
André Gérin 20.48% (16)

Delegates as of now:
Buffet - 160
Martelli - 59
Gérin - 44
Needed for Nomination: 2,219



Buffet: red

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The month of June for the PS will be covered first, this will take quite some time as June is a very heavy month for primaries. Then the UMP, UDF, Greenies and Communists.

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May 31, 2006: After Royal's landslide victory in the Bouches-du-Rhône primary, which resulted in her winning 64% of the vote and winning all 80 delegates - a huge prize - due to the division of her opponents, none of which broke 10% (Fabius and DSK were only a handful of votes away from 10%, which led them and Montebourg to decry fraud and intimidation in the primary, organized by the pro-Royal local federation.

June 2, 2006: A primary debate between DSK, Royal, Fabius, Montebourg, Mélenchon, Bockel and Pupunat is held in Strasbourg, Bas-Rhin. Strauss-Kahn is perceived to be the winner.

June 3, 2006: In a major boost for Strauss-Kahn, the First Secretary of the PS, François Hollande, endorses Strauss-Kahn over his partner, Royal. The endorsement gives a boost to Strauss-Kahn, though it reinforces his image as the candidate of the party "establishment". He is also endorsed by the Mayor of Paris, Bertrand Delanoë.

June 4, 2006: The major figure of the left of the PS, Henri Emanuelli endorses
Jean-Luc Mélenchon while also calling for the unity of the PS' left-wing. This is aimed specifically at his former ally from the Mans Congress and former member of the NPS, Arnaud Montebourg.

June 5, 2006 - Final Super Tuesday polls: The Super Tuesday primaries are only a day away, and all candidates are frantically campaigning in the last 24 hours. A number of primaries are classified as too close to call.

June 6, 2006 - The Aisne PS Primary

Victor:

Jean-Luc Mélenchon



Jean-Luc Mélenchon 35.63% (17)
Ségolène Royal 26.53% (12)
Laurent Fabius 16.43% (7)
Dominique Strauss-Kahn 12.34% (6)
Arnaud Montebourg 6.75%
Jean-Marie Bockel 1.19%
Franck Pupunat 1.13%

June 6, 2006 - The Allier PS Primary

Victor:

Laurent Fabius



Laurent Fabius 26.11% (9)
Ségolène Royal 24.56% (9)
Jean-Luc Mélenchon 20.09% (7)
Dominique Strauss-Kahn 14.70% (5)
Arnaud Montebourg 11.34% (4)
Jean-Marie Bockel 1.99%
Franck Pupunat 1.21%

June 6, 2006 - The Alpes-Maritimes PS Primary

Victor:

Ségolène Royal



Ségolène Royal 39.11% (25)
Laurent Fabius 19.97% (13)
Jean-Luc Mélenchon 18.11% (12)
Dominique Strauss-Kahn 15.69% (10)
Arnaud Montebourg 5.49%
Jean-Marie Bockel 0.98%
Franck Pupunat 0.65%

June 6, 2006 - The Ardèche PS Primary

Victor:

Ségolène Royal



Ségolène Royal 34.19% (12)
Jean-Luc Mélenchon 24.92% (9)
Laurent Fabius 19.16% (7)
Dominique Strauss-Kahn 13.17% (4)
Arnaud Montebourg 6.02%
Jean-Marie Bockel 1.43%
Franck Pupunat 1.11%

June 6, 2006 - The Charente-Maritime PS Primary

Victor:

Ségolène Royal



Ségolène Royal 48.73% (25)
Jean-Luc Mélenchon 15.67% (8 )
Dominique Strauss-Kahn 14.47% (7)
Laurent Fabius 10.02% (5)
Arnaud Montebourg 7.91%
Jean-Marie Bockel 2.01%
Franck Pupunat 1.19%

June 6, 2006 - The Corrèze PS Primary

Victor:

Dominique Strauss-Kahn



Dominique Strauss-Kahn 56.19% (22)
Ségolène Royal 15.62% (6)
Laurent Fabius 9.19%
Jean-Luc Mélenchon 8.02%
Arnaud Montebourg 6.21%
Jean-Marie Bockel 1.87%
Franck Pupunat 1.21%

June 6, 2006 - The Corse-du-Sud PS Primary

Victor:

Dominique Strauss-Kahn



Dominique Strauss-Kahn 65.02% (16)
Ségolène Royal 12.13% (3)
Jean-Luc Mélenchon 11.58% (2)
Laurent Fabius 6.09%
Arnaud Montebourg 3.56%
Jean-Marie Bockel 0.98%
Franck Pupunat 0.64%

TBC...

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June 6, 2006 - The Haute-Corse PS Primary

Victor:

Laurent Fabius



Laurent Fabius 73.19% (23)
Dominique Strauss-Kahn 9.22%
Ségolène Royal 8.76%
Jean-Luc Mélenchon 4.45%
Arnaud Montebourg 3.31%
Jean-Marie Bockel 0.75%
Franck Pupunat 0.42%

June 6, 2006 - The Doubs PS Primary

Victor:

Dominique Strauss-Kahn



Dominique Strauss-Kahn 45.16% (21)
Ségolène Royal 23.64% (11)
Laurent Fabius 12.41% (5)
Jean-Luc Mélenchon 10.13% (4)
Arnaud Montebourg 6.19%
Jean-Marie Bockel 1.45%
Franck Pupunat 1.02%

June 6, 2006 - The Drôme PS Primary

Victor:

Dominique Strauss-Kahn



Dominique Strauss-Kahn 32.20% (14)
Ségolène Royal 30.59% (14)
Jean-Luc Mélenchon 15.63% (7)
Laurent Fabius 13.02% (5)
Arnaud Montebourg 5.73%
Jean-Marie Bockel 1.67%
Franck Pupunat 1.16%

June 6, 2006 - The Eure PS Primary

Victor:

Laurent Fabius



Laurent Fabius 40.19% (19)
Ségolène Royal 21.89% (10)
Dominique Strauss-Kahn 17.16% (8 )
Jean-Luc Mélenchon 14.19% (6)
Arnaud Montebourg 5.02%
Jean-Marie Bockel 1.02%
Franck Pupunat 0.53%

June 6, 2006 - The Gironde PS Primary

Victor:

Laurent Fabius



Laurent Fabius 26.73% (21)
Dominique Strauss-Kahn 24.87% (19)
Ségolène Royal 21.32% (16)
Jean-Luc Mélenchon 16.17% (12)
Arnaud Montebourg 7.86%
Jean-Marie Bockel 1.98%
Franck Pupunat 1.07%

June 6, 2006 - The Hérault PS Primary

Victor:

Ségolène Royal



Ségolène Royal 46.17% (29)
Dominique Strauss-Kahn 20.13% (12)
Jean-Luc Mélenchon 14.19% (9)
Laurent Fabius 13.29% (8 )
Arnaud Montebourg 4.02%
Jean-Marie Bockel 1.14%
Franck Pupunat 1.06%

June 6, 2006 - The Ille-et-Vilaine PS Primary

Victor:

Dominique Strauss-Kahn



Dominique Strauss-Kahn 35.58% (22)
Ségolène Royal 24.19% (15)
Jean-Luc Mélenchon 18.75% (12)
Laurent Fabius 12.02% (7)
Arnaud Montebourg 5.19%
Jean-Marie Bockel 2.16%
Franck Pupunat 2.11%

June 6, 2006 - The Loire PS Primary

Victor:

Ségolène Royal



Ségolène Royal 29.86% (17)
Jean-Luc Mélenchon 28.54% (16)
Dominique Strauss-Kahn 15.43% (9)
Laurent Fabius 13.98% (8 )
Arnaud Montebourg 8.99%
Jean-Marie Bockel 1.98%
Franck Pupunat 1.22%

June 6, 2006 - The Marne PS Primary

Victor:

Jean-Luc Mélenchon



Jean-Luc Mélenchon 29.11% (14)
Ségolène Royal 22.12% (11)
Dominique Strauss-Kahn 21.02% (10)
Laurent Fabius 17.89% (8 )
Arnaud Montebourg 6.66%
Jean-Marie Bockel 1.98%
Franck Pupunat 1.22%

June 6, 2006 - The Martinique PS Primary

Victor:

Ségolène Royal



Ségolène Royal 46.16% (20)
Laurent Fabius 23.16% (10)
Dominique Strauss-Kahn 13.92% (6)
Jean-Luc Mélenchon 8.65%
Arnaud Montebourg 3.11%
Franck Pupunat 2.99%
Jean-Marie Bockel 2.01%

June 6, 2006 - The Nièvre PS Primary

Victor:

Laurent Fabius



Laurent Fabius 32.11% (11)
Ségolène Royal 26.02% (9)
Dominique Strauss-Kahn 20.54% (7)
Jean-Luc Mélenchon 9.02%
Arnaud Montebourg 9.00%
Jean-Marie Bockel 1.88%
Franck Pupunat 1.43%

June 6, 2006 - The Orne PS Primary

Victor:

Ségolène Royal



Ségolène Royal 52.39% (19)
Dominique Strauss-Kahn 14.68% (5)
Laurent Fabius 13.02% (4)
Jean-Luc Mélenchon 10.11% (3)
Arnaud Montebourg 6.02%
Franck Pupunat 2.11%
Jean-Marie Bockel 1.67%

June 6, 2006 - The Pas-de-Calais PS Primary

Victor:

Laurent Fabius



Laurent Fabius 42.19% (33)
Dominique Strauss-Kahn 21.33% (16)
Ségolène Royal 15.14% (11)
Jean-Luc Mélenchon 13.27% (10)
Arnaud Montebourg 4.89%
Jean-Marie Bockel 1.75%
Franck Pupunat 1.43%

June 6, 2006 - The Bas-Rhin PS Primary

Victor:

Dominique Strauss-Kahn



Dominique Strauss-Kahn 47.19% (36)
Ségolène Royal 18.73% (14)
Laurent Fabius 14.10% (10)
Jean-Luc Mélenchon 8.67%
Jean-Marie Bockel 7.56%
Arnaud Montebourg 2.89%
Franck Pupunat 0.86%

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June 6, 2006 - The Deux-Sèvres PS Primary

Victor:

Ségolène Royal



Ségolène Royal 69.84% (35)
Dominique Strauss-Kahn 9.89%
Laurent Fabius 9.67%
Jean-Luc Mélenchon 6.13%
Arnaud Montebourg 3.02%
Franck Pupunat 0.67%
Jean-Marie Bockel 0.78%

June 6, 2006 - The Vosges PS Primary

Victor:

Laurent Fabius



Laurent Fabius 46.11% (20)
Dominique Strauss-Kahn 24.02% (10)
Ségolène Royal 15.78% (6)
Jean-Luc Mélenchon 8.95%
Arnaud Montebourg 3.02%
Jean-Marie Bockel 1.11%
Franck Pupunat 1.01%

June 6, 2006 - The Yonne PS Primary

Victor:

Jean-Luc Mélenchon



Jean-Luc Mélenchon 27.16% (10)
Laurent Fabius 25.42% (9)
Ségolène Royal 21.14% (8 )
Dominique Strauss-Kahn 18.54% (7)
Arnaud Montebourg 5.49%
Jean-Marie Bockel 1.24%
Franck Pupunat 1.01%

June 6, 2006 - The Yvelines PS Primary

Victor:

Dominique Strauss-Kahn



Dominique Strauss-Kahn 29.81% (23)
Ségolène Royal 24.17% (18)
Laurent Fabius 21.13% (16)
Jean-Luc Mélenchon 14.39% (11)
Arnaud Montebourg 6.42%
Jean-Marie Bockel 2.79%
Franck Pupunat 1.29%

June 6, 2006 - The Val-de-Marne PS Primary

Victor:

Dominique Strauss-Kahn



Dominique Strauss-Kahn 40.16% (29)
Ségolène Royal 25.64% (18)
Laurent Fabius 16.52% (12)
Jean-Luc Mélenchon 10.12% (7)
Arnaud Montebourg 4.13%
Jean-Marie Bockel 2.30%
Franck Pupunat 1.13%

[Hash]

Royal: red
Fabius: blue
DSK: green
Mélenchon: orange

Delegates as of now:
Royal - 506
DSK - 371
Fabius - 315
Mélenchon - 206
Montebourg - 12
Needed for Nomination: 2,219

Errors, of course, very possible.

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Delegates allocated on June 6 (PS)
Royal - 373
DSK - 324
Fabius - 270
Mélenchon - 176
Montebourg - 4

Delegates as of now:
Royal - 506 (35.89%)
DSK - 371 (26.31%)
Fabius - 315 (22.34%)
Mélenchon - 206 (14.61%)
Montebourg - 12 (0.85%)
Allocated - 1,410 (31.79%)
Needed for Nomination: 2,219

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June 7, 2006: Arnaud Montebourg announces that he is dropping out of the race for the Socialist nomination without making an immediate endorsement.

June 8, 2006: Franck Pupunat drops out of the race for the Socialist nomination and endorses Jean-Luc Mélenchon. Pupunat was a fringe candidate throughout the early primaries and never came close to winning delegates. The field is narrowed down from 7 to 5, including four "major" candidates.

June 9, 2006: For the first time since the start of the race, Royal no longer leads IFOP's nationwide primary surveys. The latest poll had Strauss-Kahn ahead of her with 28% against 26% for her. Fabius had 21%, Mélenchon had 16% and Bockel had 3%.

June 10, 2006 - Final Rural Tuesday polls: The 'Rural' Tuesday primaries are only hours away, and Royal seems to have the upper hand in most of them partly due to the support of the local party establishment.

June 11, 2006 - The Alpes-de-Haute Provence PS Primary

Victor:

Ségolène Royal



Ségolène Royal 50.45% (13)
Dominique Strauss-Kahn 22.17% (5)
Laurent Fabius 13.45% (3)
Jean-Luc Mélenchon 10.09% (2)
Jean-Marie Bockel 2.89%
Arnaud Montebourg 0.93%
Franck Pupunat 0.02%

June 11, 2006 - The Aveyron PS Primary

Victor:

Dominique Strauss-Kahn



Dominique Strauss-Kahn 29.86% (10)
Ségolène Royal 25.69% (7)
Jean-Luc Mélenchon 23.14% (8)
Laurent Fabius 17.47% (5)
Jean-Marie Bockel 3.51%
Arnaud Montebourg 0.32%
Franck Pupunat 0.01%

June 11, 2006 - The Cantal PS Primary

Victor:

Dominique Strauss-Kahn



Dominique Strauss-Kahn 44.16% (10)
Jean-Luc Mélenchon 30.09% (7)
Ségolène Royal 12.19% (3)
Laurent Fabius 10.16% (2)
Jean-Marie Bockel 2.96%
Arnaud Montebourg 0.43%
Franck Pupunat 0.01%

June 11, 2006 - The Haute-Loire PS Primary

Victor:

Ségolène Royal



Ségolène Royal 43.12% (12)
Jean-Luc Mélenchon 29.16% (8)
Laurent Fabius 13.29% (4)
Dominique Strauss-Kahn 12.19% (3)
Jean-Marie Bockel 2.02%
Arnaud Montebourg 0.21%
Franck Pupunat 0.01%

June 11, 2006 - The Lot PS Primary

Victor:

Dominique Strauss-Kahn



Dominique Strauss-Kahn 37.86% (10)
Ségolène Royal 33.42% (8)
Laurent Fabius 16.02% (4)
Jean-Luc Mélenchon 10.42% (2)
Jean-Marie Bockel 2.01%
Arnaud Montebourg 0.24%
Franck Pupunat 0.03%

June 11, 2006 - The Lozère PS Primary

Victor:

Ségolène Royal



Ségolène Royal 55.72% (11)
Dominique Strauss-Kahn 19.89% (3)
Jean-Luc Mélenchon 15.12% (2)
Laurent Fabius 7.64%
Jean-Marie Bockel 1.53%
Arnaud Montebourg 0.09%
Franck Pupunat 0.01%

June 12, 2006 - The Haute-Marne PS Primary

Victor:

Jean-Luc Mélenchon



Jean-Luc Mélenchon 27.09% (7)
Ségolène Royal 26.89% (7)
Dominique Strauss-Kahn 23.28% (6)
Laurent Fabius 20.39% (5)
Jean-Marie Bockel 2.01%
Arnaud Montebourg 0.32%
Franck Pupunat 0.02%

Royal: red
Fabius: blue
DSK: green
Mélenchon: orange

Delegates as of now:
Royal - 567
DSK - 418
Fabius - 338
Mélenchon - 242
Uncommitted (Montebourg) - 12
Needed for Nomination: 2,219