2011 State Elections in Germany

[BenNebbich]

Sachsen-Anhalt State Elections (Infratest dimap):

32% CDU
26% Left
23% SPD
  7% Greens
  5% FDP
  4% NPD
  3% Others

Oh great, another state where we gonna throw tax-payers' money at the Nazis soon.

i fear you are right.

[BenNebbich]

hamburg prediction from BenNebbich:

spd          43%
cdu          28%
gal           15%
fdp             6%
sedlinke  4%
other          4%

[BenNebbich]

hamburg prediction from BenNebbich:

spd          43%
cdu          28%
gal           15%
fdp             6%
sedlinke  4%
other          4%

anyone with a worse prediction?

[BenNebbich]

well franzl, you can see true conservatives losing next week in baden-würtemberg.

greetings from the city of landshut, where even the csu was 'idiotic anti-atom' for years. now we are happy to get rid of isar I.

BenNebbich

[i personally still fear the rightwingers getting 5%; maybe the sample for the pollsters is not choosen carefully enough.]

[BenNebbich]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Perhaps. Don't get too confident yet. You might regret it.

well, you may be right. but i think the ENBW deal will send Mappus to the ground.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

No German party really represents my views on atomic energy.

lucky us. but you have just to wait for 6 months and the 'nuclear parties' will be back. don't worry, it's just a trick for the moment.

[BenNebbich]

ing useless npd is coming up!

i don't like eastern germany; communists and nazis like in the 'good old days'.

[BenNebbich]

try the spiegel online link.

[BenNebbich]

i'm really looking forward to 18.00.

but i still fear a cdu/fdp victory in BW. the election law is still giving advantages to the cdu.

well lets see.

[BenNebbich]

or it mans the opposite.

or it doesn't mean anything at all.

[BenNebbich]

it' still not over in BW.

[BenNebbich]

absolut!

[BenNebbich]

Ugh, the nuclear fearmongering worked.

Unsurprisingly. Germans are this way.

off topic:

no; it is not fearmongering. i live for 20 years in landshut, a town next to a nuclear power plant ('isar I'). there is not even an evacuation plan for the 60.000 inhabitants, because it is senseless in case of a nuclear accident.

it is real fear. it is not 'angst'.

i pray weekly that they close the plant.

[BenNebbich]

...it seems to me, that guido and angela are pretty much f***ing up the country, right now.

[BenNebbich]

FTR, what are the chances that Die Linke and the CDU would ever, EVER, sit together without either SPD or Greens?

That already happens on the local level in East Germany. Quite often in fact.
On the state level it is still no option for both sides. Today. 30 years from now, in some East German state, who knows...

i hope that in 30 years the left party will be history.

[BenNebbich]

FTR, what are the chances that Die Linke and the CDU would ever, EVER, sit together without either SPD or Greens?

That already happens on the local level in East Germany. Quite often in fact.
On the state level it is still no option for both sides. Today. 30 years from now, in some East German state, who knows...

i hope that in 30 years the left party will be history.

No. The FDP will though.

i don't think so. The left party 'needs' the gap between east and west germany. i think the gap will vanishover the years.

the fdp needs the gap between rich and poor. this is a gap, which will exist forever.

please check it in 30 years and then remember old BenNebbich.

[BenNebbich]

SSW

May I add that have no guarantee for at least one seat. they need the votes for one seat and then they get it.

it's quite a difference.

B.N.

[BenNebbich]

i would like a pirate - green - fdp coalition.

[BenNebbich]

I'm no kid and live in the countryside, so....

[BenNebbich]

I'm no kid and live in the countryside, so....

Landshut, wasn't it? I seem to remember that being one of the reasons for your opposition to atomic energy

I'll be a voter in Holzkirchen starting next month.  Grüß Gott!

right - the historic capital of bavaria.

don't worry about the csu; the spd - green - fw coalition will fall apart before election day about central issues like munich airport and the railway tunnel in munich.

BenNebbich

[BenNebbich]

Well, time for my Mecklenburg-Vorpommern prediction:

38% SPD
28% CDU
15% Left
  7% Greens
  4% FDP
  4% NPD
  4% Others

SPD-Greens and SPD-Left would be possible and of course SPD-CDU.

My prediction:

SPD    36%
CDU   27%
Left    16%
Greens 6%
FDP       4%
NPD      6%
Others  5%

[BenNebbich]

if turnout stays so low we will see the nazis in and a pretty good result for the communists.

[BenNebbich]

no red green possible.

i think spd/cdu will be the result.

[BenNebbich]

What the hell is wrong with this place?

http://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Neu_Kali%C3%9F

FDP 22.8 and second strongest party.

And the FDP controls 50% of seats at local level as well.

Hääää?

seem to be a n outstanding nice place.

[BenNebbich]

Hmpf. Given the turnout expectations and the trend of the last days, I'm not expecting a result that makes me smile this evening.
My prediction for Berlin, without any kind of wishful thinking:

SPD: 29 (voters feel save that we win it anyway --> low motivation --> low turnout --> bad result)
CDU: 23
Grüne: 18 (suffer badly from the Pirates' surge)
Linke: 12
FDP: 4 (the turn towards anti-euro-populism, though promising in the long run, came to late for the election)
Pirates: 7 (Seems unavoidable, the momentum is to strong and they had so much media attention...)
NPD: 3 (always had a significant base in Berlin, and the low turnout is helping too)
Others: 4

SPD  28,5
CDU  22,5
Linke 13,5
FDP    3,5
Grüne 19,5
Pirates 6,5
Sonst. 6

[BenNebbich]

State Election Mechlenburg-Vorpommern

The Seat goes to the SPD (FDP comes in third; so no chance for the seat.)