CPRM, Pt 2: AL (RO) 7/17; GA (RO) 7/24; TN 8/2; 274K ballots left in CA

[Hindsight was 2020]

Can Rouda make this up?

[GeorgiaModerate]

Can Rouda make this up?

Orange has 15K mail and then 45K provisionals to count.  Wasserman thinks the provisionals will break Rouda's way (I'm not sure why).

[mencken]

Can Rouda make this up?

Orange has 15K mail and then 45K provisionals to count.  Wasserman thinks the provisionals will break Rouda's way (I'm not sure why).

Rouda was the establishment pick going into Election Day, while Keirstead was favored earlier in the race? That might have something to do with it.

[Oryxslayer]

Can Rouda make this up?

Orange has 15K mail and then 45K provisionals to count.  Wasserman thinks the provisionals will break Rouda's way (I'm not sure why).

Rouda was the establishment pick going into Election Day, while Keirstead was favored earlier in the race? That might have something to do with it.

This is why Wasserman believes Rouda has the nomination.

[Gass3268]

Democratic Gubernatorial candidates are only 1,346 votes away from taking the lead over the Republican candidates in Orange County.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Orange County dumped a few more votes overnight, but both Rouda and Keirstead gained 76 votes each, so the gap remains at 329.

* DANA ROHRABACHER (REP)   47,052   30.6%
HANS KEIRSTEAD (DEM)   26,716   17.4%
HARLEY ROUDA (DEM)   26,387   17.2%
SCOTT BAUGH (REP)   24,684   16.1%

[Gass3268]

[GeorgiaModerate]

I'm still not convinced that relative primary turnout means much.  Yes, an increase for one party from previous elections may show increased enthusiasm, but this is likely to be far outweighed by how interesting/competitive each primary matchup is.

[ON Progressive]

That should be scaring Brat big time. Dems didn't have a statewide primary while Republicans did, and the House primary for Dems wasn't competitive. Even with those advantages for Republican primary turnout, they still get romped.

[Oryxslayer]

That should be scaring Brat big time. Dems didn't have a statewide primary while Republicans did, and the House primary for Dems wasn't competitive. Even with those advantages for Republican primary turnout, they still get romped.

Yeah but the dems had a fairly competitive primarily for VA-07, where the republicans didn't. We also know that turnout was way down for reps this primary in virginia. Sometimes these comparisons work, sometimes they don't, but in both cases these data points the size of of salt grains.

[ajc0918]

Virginia is going to turn into a dummymander huh?

[ON Progressive]

That should be scaring Brat big time. Dems didn't have a statewide primary while Republicans did, and the House primary for Dems wasn't competitive. Even with those advantages for Republican primary turnout, they still get romped.

Yeah but the dems had a fairly competitive primarily for VA-07, where the republicans didn't. We also know that turnout was way down for reps this primary in virginia. Sometimes these comparisons work, sometimes they don't, but in both cases these are data points the size of of salt grains.

The VA-07 Dem primary was a 73-27 win for Spanberger, so I doubt it was competitive. Also, I would think a Senate primary would be more energizing than a House primary.

[KingSweden]

I'm still not convinced that relative primary turnout means much.  Yes, an increase for one party from previous elections may show increased enthusiasm, but this is likely to be far outweighed by how interesting/competitive each primary matchup is.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I'm still not convinced that relative primary turnout means much.  Yes, an increase for one party from previous elections may show increased enthusiasm, but this is likely to be far outweighed by how interesting/competitive each primary matchup is.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Virginia is going to turn into a dummymander huh?

If Chesterfield goes the way of Henrico.

[Brittain33]

Reminder that Gillespie won VA-7 by only 4 points over Northam.

[Gass3268]

Just a friendly reminder that Brat, Taylor, and Wittman are likely ed if (when) Dems take the trifecta. I would include Comstock, but she’s toast already lol

I love this map, I'm not sure if the Dems would want to go as nuts in NoVa (you might spread yourself out a bit too thin), but the 2nd and 7th here are perfect. Also it barely splits any counties, so it's obviously not a gerrymander /s.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Just a friendly reminder that Brat, Taylor, and Wittman are likely ed if (when) Dems take the trifecta. I would include Comstock, but she’s toast already lol

I love this map, I'm not sure if the Dems would want to go as nuts in NoVa (you might spread yourself out a bit too thin), but the 2nd and 7th here are perfect. Also it barely splits any counties, so it's obviously not a gerrymander /s.

Thanks! I mean, it’s clearly a gerrymander, but VA Dems could always just point out how much of an abortion factory the current map is lol

All 4 NOVA seats are at least D+3.5ish and getting bluer. The only real competitive seats on this map is the Charlottesville—Richmond one (R+1 Romney-Clinton seat) and the new VA-2 (about D+2.5)

If you are using 2010 population numbers, the 2020 versions will be sucked further into NOVA, so NOVA should be able to support 4 seats without real issue.

[heatcharger]

^ There’s been slight growth in NoVA’s favor since 2017 (namely in Loudoun), but probably nothing map-shattering. It might allow you to make a VA-11 with a less narrow reach-into Fairfax and still makes it out to cow country.

Still always find PNM’s yellow district comical as well as illogical, though I hope it happens somehow. The GOP would throw a fit about being shoved into a completely legal vote sink district that sweeps from the Shenandoah Valley to the Bay.

[DINGO Joe]

That should be scaring Brat big time. Dems didn't have a statewide primary while Republicans did, and the House primary for Dems wasn't competitive. Even with those advantages for Republican primary turnout, they still get romped.

Yeah but the dems had a fairly competitive primarily for VA-07, where the republicans didn't. We also know that turnout was way down for reps this primary in virginia. Sometimes these comparisons work, sometimes they don't, but in both cases these are data points the size of of salt grains.

The VA-07 Dem primary was a 73-27 win for Spanberger, so I doubt it was competitive. Also, I would think a Senate primary would be more energizing than a House primary.

The VA-07 primary was competitive by way of fundraising as both candidates raised close to a 1 million dollars, it's just that Spanberger was a far better campaigner and organizer.  While turnout was down for the Rs, it was up in Culpepper which was Freitas home county.  The 7th was also Stewart's worst district as he only got 33% of the vote

[Oryxslayer]

D+3 is not a good seat, that is barely safe, still in the competitive belt. VA-02 is R+3, an that is competitive. VA-10 was R+2 and would have flipped in 2016 in the event of a clinton win. The sweet spot for gerrymanders is between a pvi of 5 and 10, around 7.5. Too safe to be swept in a wave, but not too much to be wasting voters. And that is in the event the supreme court doesn't change things. The map probably ends up as 7-4. VA-02 gets reconfigured with Va-03 an! Va-04 to be more dem. VA-07 gets oriented towards Charlottesville and then dem NOVA rather than the republican exurbs. NOVA becomes better drawn. And the reps get packed into VA-01, 05, 06, and 09.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Keirstead picked up a net 6 votes today and now leads Rouda by 335:

* DANA ROHRABACHER (REP)   49,654   30.5%
HANS KEIRSTEAD (DEM)   28,373   17.4%
HARLEY ROUDA (DEM)   28,038   17.2%
SCOTT BAUGH (REP)   26,011   16.0%

Rohrabacher's percentage has been creeping downward.  I wouldn't be surprised to see him end up below 30%.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Keirstead picked up a net 6 votes today and now leads Rouda by 335:

* DANA ROHRABACHER (REP)   49,654   30.5%
HANS KEIRSTEAD (DEM)   28,373   17.4%
HARLEY ROUDA (DEM)   28,038   17.2%
SCOTT BAUGH (REP)   26,011   16.0%

Rohrabacher's percentage has been creeping downward.  I wouldn't be surprised to see him end up below 30%.

I don't think there's many more votes to count...

[GeorgiaModerate]

Keirstead picked up a net 6 votes today and now leads Rouda by 335:

* DANA ROHRABACHER (REP)   49,654   30.5%
HANS KEIRSTEAD (DEM)   28,373   17.4%
HARLEY ROUDA (DEM)   28,038   17.2%
SCOTT BAUGH (REP)   26,011   16.0%

Rohrabacher's percentage has been creeping downward.  I wouldn't be surprised to see him end up below 30%.

I don't think there's many more votes to count...

There are, actually.  As of last night, Orange County had about 45K votes left to count, almost all of them provisionals: http://elections.cdn.sos.ca.gov/statewide-elections/2018-primary/unprocessed-ballots-report.pdf.

[Oryxslayer]

D+3 is not a good seat, that is barely safe, still in the competitive belt. VA-02 is R+3, an that is competitive. VA-10 was R+2 and would have flipped in 2016 in the event of a clinton win. The sweet spot for gerrymanders is between a pvi of 5 and 10, around 7.5. Too safe to be swept in a wave, but not too much to be wasting voters. And that is in the event the supreme court doesn't change things. The map probably ends up as 7-4. VA-02 gets reconfigured with Va-03 an! Va-04 to be more dem. VA-07 gets oriented towards Charlottesville and then dem NOVA rather than the republican exurbs. NOVA becomes better drawn. And the reps get packed into VA-01, 05, 06, and 09.

How many D+3ish seats or higher do Republicans hold now? It’s only the two Cuban seats, Katko’s and Valadao’s seat. We can argue over semantics all we want, but chances are Republicans aren’t going to be winning much of anything higher than D+2. Something like 95% of the seats they gained in 2010 were R+ PVI. And it’s not like NOVA is getting redder.

Two problems with this analysis.

1. The 2010 wave was largely cleanup of red seat dems. In 2014, reps expanded the battleground and picked up quite a few D leaning seats. Ignoring the unique IL-10 we have these gains with 2008-2012 PVI: NV-04 (D+4), IA-01 (D+4), NY-24 (D+5), ME-02 (D+2), along with the EVEN seats of NY-21, FL-26, AZ-02, NY-01. This cycle, Dems are targeting countless seats above R+3, congressmen want to be waveproof.

2. NOVA is not getting redder right now. I don't disagree with you in this regard, but this line of thinking is what makes bad gerrymanders. You are drawing a map that needs to last 10 years and all the shuffles of coalitions. New Jersey is a great example of this, drawing six rep seats and assuming the suburbs would stay loyal. Nope, and now NJ republican will be lucky to have 3 new Jersey reps in 2018. Higher PVI's are more insulated from coalition shifts.

A good example of this is Ohio. Ohio's 2010 gerrymander is basically the perfect example of a swing state transformed into a party bulwark. Using the 2008 one cycle data from DRA, because I cannot input 2004 data, the average Republican district PVI is R+7.275. And they didn't give OH-10 or OH-14 that Republican a PVI, votes were sacrificed to give Boehner a Seat that Obama lost by over 60-40, he needed to be absolutely safe.