Peruvian Elections and Politics: Boluarte era, political crisis continues

[Jeppe]

These are the expat voting results I've found so far.

Japan
Fujimori 92-8

Australia
Fujimori 82-18

New Zealand
Fujimori 74-26

Madrid, Spain
Fujimori 61-39

Paris, France
Fujimori 57-43

Norway
Castillo 56-44

[Jeppe]

It might come down to which polling error is bigger - understating Fujimori due to "shy" voters (they do seem to be a thing here) or not fully expressing Castillo's support with poor rural people.

Those results call to mind another polling error - the exclusion of (mostly right-wing) Peruvians abroad from national polling.

How many expats overseas registered to vote are there?

About 900k registered and 220k who voted in round 1.

[Jeppe]

The quick count underestimated Fujimori by almost 1% in 2016. Still anybody’s game...

[Jeppe]

I don’t think Castillo has enough votes left. Fujimori might finally win a second round.

[Jeppe]

Some napkin math.

Outstanding votes in provinces where Castillo is leading
45k from Amazonas
50k from Arequipa
100k from Ayacucho
170k from Cusco
45k from Huancavelica
30k from Huanuco
70k from Junin
18k from Madre de Dios
40k from Moquegua
38k from Pasco.
Approximately 606k votes left in provinces where Castillo is winning.

Outstanding vote in provinces where Fujimori is leading
8k from Ica
304k from Loreto
82k from Piura
36k from Ucayali
Approximately 430k votes left in provinces where Fujimori is winning.

Caveat is that Castillo has stronger margins in the most of the provinces where he's winning.

There are estimated to be another ~330-350k votes abroad as well, that are not counted yet.