Peruvian presidential election (2nd round) – June 5, 2016

[Velasco]

"As for endorsements, Alfredo Barnechea won't support any candidate because he sees no difference between PPK and Keiko on economic policies."

He's trying to be a left-winger now?

I think the question here is that Keiko and PPK are very right-wing on what they call the economic "model". From the little that I know about their platforms, Barnechea has more common ground with Mendoza. Guzmán and the candidate of Acción Popular are placed on the centre in the Peruvian politics. Basically, the choice in the second ground for people left of the centre is between a populistic and allegedly authoritarian right-winger and an orthodox (neo) liberal right-winger.

[Famous Mortimer]

If the left don't turn out to vote though, doesn't that help PPK?

[Vega]

If the left don't turn out to vote though, doesn't that help PPK?

No, it helps Fujimori. The left is far more content with him, even if it is a cold contentedness.

[jaichind]

If the left don't turn out to vote though, doesn't that help PPK?

No, it helps Fujimori. The left is far more content with him, even if it is a cold contentedness.

Yep.  The Left not coming out to vote means Fujimori wins.  What needs to happen is for the Leftist vote to come up and vote for a neo-liberal and American-trained investment banker.  it is not that likely but perhaps their animosity toward the Fujimori senior years might motivate them.

[Velasco]

The FP majority in the Congress presents a worrying aspect in what concerns the legal situation of the former president Fujimori senior, aka Chinochet. Alberto Fujimori petitioned for a writ of habeas corpus, in order to annul the judgement that sentenced him to 25 years of imprisonment for crimes against humanity. It's feared that the Fujimorista bench will put pressure on the members of the Constitutional Court, whom are elected by Congress. The term of one of the court members is expired and the Fujimoristas will want to appoint someone friendly in replacement.

Recently Keiko Fujimori stated that there's no evidence of her father's involvement in La Cantuta and Barrios Altos crimes. Two intervening lawyers and a former attorney replied such statements, clarifying that during the judicial process more than 500 evidence was submitted, proving the facts and Fujimori's responsibility. It was proved during the process that Alberto Fujimori encouraged an anti-subversive strategy that included the selective elimination of people, as it happened in La Cantuta and Barrios Altos massacres. Also, it was proved the connection between Fujimori (through the Chino's aide Vladimiro Montesinos) and the death squad known as Grupo Colina.

On forced sterilizations occurring in that period, the Dean of the Peruvian Official Medical Association stated days ago that in 1997 or 98 he was offered to go to remote areas and perform sterilization surgeries (the Ministry of Health paid 30 dollars for each) . The Dean, by that time a gynaecologist in Trujillo region, said he rejected the offer.  During the Fujimori administration (1990-2000) at least 272 women were sterilized, more than 2000 without consent or by deception, coercion or bribery. Those women had in common being poor, living in remote areas and were mostly of Quechua and Aymara ethnicity. This affair already arose during the 2011 campaign.

[jaichind]

Fujimori's brother says he will seek Peru presidency if she loses

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-peru-election-idUSKCN0XM1ZR

Kenji Fujimori will run in 2021 if Keiko loses in the second round it seems.

[Vega]

Fujimori's brother says he will seek Peru presidency if she loses

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-peru-election-idUSKCN0XM1ZR

Kenji Fujimori will run in 2021 if Keiko loses in the second round it seems.

I'm surprised he wasn't the one in the family who entered presidential politics. He was Alberto's preferred son.

But I don't think that is terribly surprising, if he doesn't run, I'm sure some family member will.

[jaichind]

The latest Ipsos poll, published by daily newspaper El Comercio, showed Fujimori with 42 percent support compared with Kuczynski's 39 percent. It also showed 14 percent of respondents were either undecided or planned to leave their ballots blank.

[jaichind]

Keiko Fujimori and Pedro Pablo Kuczynski each had 50% in a simulated vote by Datum Internacional, according to Peru21 newspaper.

[Vega]

Yeah, the race is definitely a dead heat, but Fujimori has the passion and arguably the momentum around her.

[Gog]

I hope PPK wins, Fujimori won't be good for Peru at all.

[jaichind]

Looks like by the latest polls Fujimori is pulling ahead.  Ipsos has her winning 53-47 where as weeks ago it was 50-50 by the same pollster. 

[jaichind]

El Comercio has Fujimori 46.1 PKK 41.6 and 12 blank/spoiled ballot which would work out to 52.6/47.4

[Vega]

It seems Fujimori has taken the lead at this point from all the public polls.

[jaichind]

CPI poll, Fujimori 46 PPK 39

[Velasco]

CPI poll, Fujimori 46 PPK 39

Terrible news. PPK will have to fight hard on next Sunday's debate if he wants to have a chance.

[Vega]

CPI poll, Fujimori 46 PPK 39

Terrible news. PPK will have to fight hard on next Sunday's debate if he wants to have a chance.

I don't believe Presidential debates have a terribly large impact on debates, if 2011 or past years are to judge.

[jaichind]

CPI poll, Fujimori 46 PPK 39

Terrible news. PPK will have to fight hard on next Sunday's debate if he wants to have a chance.

I don't believe Presidential debates have a terribly large impact on debates, if 2011 or past years are to judge.

Could be.  Of course it did seem that the polls show that Keiko won the debate last sunday



Which seems to drive up her poll number the week after. 

One way or another PPK better do well in this upcoming debate or he is most likely toast.

[jaichind]

Datum poll seems to show the same story.  Fujimori 45.6 PKK 40.7 which translates to 52.9-47.1

[jaichind]

(Bloomberg) -- Keiko Fujimori leading with 45.7% of voter intentions against 40.8% for Pedro Pablo Kuzcynski in a poll by GFK, according to La Republica newspaper.

[jaichind]

El Comercio-Ipsos poll has Fujimori ahead 53.1-46.9.  Most of the polls seem to converge on the same result.  Only game changer left for PPK would be the debate tonight.

[jaichind]

I saw part of the debate.  My Spanish is very rusty so I understood only around 2/3 of it.  Overall it seems that Fujimori mostly outmaneuvered PPK and came across as the better debater.   The facial expressions of Fujimori and PPK at the end of the debate makes it pretty clear who came out ahead.

[jaichind]

Looks like Mendoza endorsed PPK.

[Velasco]

Looks like Mendoza endorsed PPK.

Yes, Veronika Mendoza calls to vote for PPK in order to prevent a comeback of fujimorismo to power. She is concerned by the alleged ties between Keiko's clique and drug traffickers. "Mrs Fujimori is surrounded by people prosecuted for corruption and ties with the narco. And she's not concerned. On what moral authority she will fight crime and drug trafficking? I don't want my sons to live in a country of corruption, drugs and violence; where lying, stealing and killing is normal".

http://larepublica.pe/politica/772127-veronika-mendoza-solo-queda-marcar-por-ppk

[jaichind]

CPI poll has Fujimori led narrowing 51.6 -  48.4.  Not sure how they are able to do this.  I thought there was a ban on polls the last week of the election.  Could be they changed the rules.