Hmm, any Blue Wave (if it exists) should dissipate by 2020 in the same manner 2012 didn't follow along on what happened in 2010. I can see the Dems winning the Governor seat, but losing the State House and missing out on the Senate in 2020.
Why would that happen?
Seriously. You know elections don't just replay the same way forever for no reason, right? I mean, Trump could win again in 2020, but you ought to make an argument for it other than "but 2012," which is a reallllllllly lazy way of thinking about this.
If you want to go the 2012 route though, think about it this way: Obama lost a little less than half his first election's winning margin. What happens if the 2020 Democrat wins by almost double Clinton's margin, replicating 2012-like parameters? Trump loses, and it won't be that close either. You can't just take "2020 = 2012" and only take the parts that fit what you want to happen. That's not how any of this works.
What's wrong with taking historical parallels? '94 was a Dem bloodbath, but Hillary's husband hung on just 2 years later. Same with '82 and '84 reversed. Sure, DJT may be a one-termer, but it's common for the outparty to let out their frustrations in the midterms and then tire out by the time the Presidential campaign rolls around. It took a freakin' hostage crisis and dizzying gas prices/inflation to sink Carter.
The difference was that Reagan, Clinton, and Obama all had some accomplishment or event that turned their fortunes around for them. For Reagan, it was getting out of a recession. For Clinton it was his handling of the Oklahoma City bombing plus welfare reform and the crime bill, and for Obama it was the killing of Osama Bin Laden. If presented with any of those scenarios, we all know the moron-in-chief would completely screw it up and the proverbial sh**t would hit the fan.
Reagan and Clinton both worked with a Congress at least partially controlled by the other party to get at least some things done. We already see how little of Trump’s agenda Congress has passed even with a Republican majority.
Trump will have precisely nothing to run on except pandering to his base. With the results we’re seeing in the Midwest in the primaries over the last few weeks, it is becoming more and more apparent that even among his 2016 supporters, there is a lot of buyer’s remorse.
Trump got 46% of the vote. If there was a lot of buyer's remorse, he wouldn't have a 43% approval rating. The difference is that Democrats and left leaners are turning out at a much higher rate than Republicans, and also consolidating the anti-Trump vote.
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