Politics and Elections in the Netherlands: Rutte III era

[Former President tack50]

It's getting increasingly challenging with the level of fragmentation we're currently experiencing, and there seems to be no quick fix or potential solution with the system that we have (which is unlikely to change). We'll have to deal with it. I guess we'll have a two-horse race election once in a while, which makes coalition formation easier, but elections like in 2010 and 2017 with that level of fragmentation will likely only become more prevalent in the future. It is what it is.

FVD are a new populist right-wing party focusing on direct democracy, opposition to mass immigration, opposition to the EU, maintaining Dutch traditions and values, and lowering taxes for small and mid-sized businesses. They mainly attract voters from PVV, CDA and VVD.

I now wonder how a Dutch election would look like if they switched to FPTP cold turkey and without any party consolidation or coalitions.

Looking at the 2017 map I imagine an overall VVD majority (with less than 22% of the vote!) with CDA in second and a handful of PVV people in the south and GL in Amsterdam. Eventually a VVD-CDA 2 party system?

[Former President tack50]

How does provincial control look like as of now? And what are your predictions for the new provincial elections? (at least the most interesting provinces)

[Former President tack50]

What powers does the Dutch Senate have anyways? Is it strong? (like say, the US senate) Or can be easily overruled?

[Former President tack50]

Decided to do that test for North Holland and apparently I got a bunch of local parties first. I hope it's the atrocious translation. Top 5:

Code Oranje: 62%
GroenLinks: 59%
NIDA: 59%
D66: 55%
PvdA: 55%

Bottom 5:

VVD: 28%
FvD: 34%
PVV: 34%
Ouderenpartij Noord Holland: 38%
CU: 41%

Looking a bit at the parties on top, I have no idea what Code Oranje is and NIDA seems to be a party for inmigrants (yikes! I'd definitely never ever vote them). Also, the translation was atrocious for some reason.

[Former President tack50]

I know this is the Netherlands, but yikes is that parliament divided!

And unlike in Belgium (also very divided, but on linguistic lines) there doesn't seem to be any way to easily consolidate the parties.

[Former President tack50]

I wonder whether this ship hasn't already sailed, with voters agreeing with the Free Left's message already opting for Forum.

But why would they choose Forum? Seems like the Free Left's stance on identity politics is closer to that of some of the more "moderate" parties?

Many people undoubtedly agree with the Free Left. But I suspect most of those who actually find these issues sufficiently important to vote based on them already vote for the right.

Still, I wonder why would they choose Forum (an unambigously right wing party in every policy aspect).

Wouldn't those voters (presumably left wing but against identity politics) vote PVV if they are voting for the right in the first place?

Also, considering how Dutch elections work, I can certainly see them getting 1 seat as it's incredibly easy to get one?

[Former President tack50]

Hopefully GL being on disarray and PvdA's amazing result at the EU election means they can make a comeback and either lead the next Dutch government or at least lead the opposition

[Former President tack50]

RIP Dutch left

Extremely surprised at the D66 surge. Per Laki's coalitions tbh I think VVD+D66+Volt+GL would be interesting, but I guess realistically it is going to be VVD+D66+cDA