Israel General Elections || 23.03.2021

[danny]

Smotric added the Sydney Powell of Israel in Simcha Rotman to his list. I am going to make a careful prediction: mergers or not I don't think Smotric is going to pass the threshold.

This is a lazy forced comparison to American politics. Rotman has a different opinion than the supreme court regarding the role of the judiciary, he hasn't petitioned the supreme court to cancel the results of elections based on internet conspiracies.

[danny]

Only 5(?) days till the lists have to be submitted. Aren’t potential mergers (Labour/Huldai/Shelah or some of the far right people) being left pretty late?

It's normal for these things to be left until the last day.

[danny]

Fairly unimpressive list. A nobody from KL in the top 10? Who's in places 10-15 which are currently realistic?

11: Danny Dayan
12: Michel Buskila
13: Ofer Berkovich
14: Avi Ganon
15:Michal Diamant

[danny]

Yesh Atid's list is pretty much all the MKs Lapid had left + party activists. The main new faces are two women- KL refugee Merav Cohen and former Kulanu Merav Ben Ari (biggest potential for an Orly Levy replay in 2021- she started off by attacking the Arab on Labour's 7th spot for not being Zionist enough and representing left wing positions).

She attacked her for specific actions and statements, not for some vague idea of "representing left wing positions". Specifically she attacked her for disrespecting the holocaust memorial siren. I don't know why this would be a left wing position (and which to me sounds insulting to the left).

[danny]

What is New Hope? Sorry for the dumb question I missed it.

The new party founded by Gideon Saar, a prominent Likud member who left the party to run on his own in this election.

[danny]

What were his motives (official and unofficial) for doing this?

Officially because Bibi is focused on his own legal trouble and is at fault for the endless elections.

Unofficially because Saar tried to replace Bibi by running against him in the most recent Likud primaries. Bibi doesn't like internal opposition so he punished him by not giving him any influential role in government.

[danny]

So things could end up with Meretz merging into Labour?

(rather than, as seemed much likelier pretty recently, the other way around)

The deadline for mergers has already passed.

[danny]

I didn't see Gantz party in polls?

Gantz is Blue and White which makes it in most, but not all polls.

[danny]

Oh, then Lapid left the coalition? Clear.

Lapid has gone back to using the Yesh Atid name.

[danny]

The official results website for tomorrow:

https://votes24.bechirot.gov.il/nationalresults

BTW the comparative turnout numbers might be misleading tomorrow because of the corona positive or in quarantine voting with double envelopes (although it's nowhere near as bad now as it was when the election was announced), so take them with a grain of salt.

[danny]

Explain please.

Also there was a bunch of anti-Bibi protests last night, but as we all know crown size =/= results.

As usual this whole election, It's a big story that's all show. Bennet was on television and signed a paper that said he isn't going to join a coalition with Lapid as PM. I think this whole event looks ridiculous but keep in mind both Bennet and Saar have already claimed that they wouldn't do this anyway.

Personally I wouldn't trust what either of them say or sign on some meaningless paper.

[danny]

I thought you guys said the results were shocking?

The TV people always call the results shocking regardless of what they are, you just have to learn to ignore the rumours and wait for real numbers.

[danny]

Wonder if Gantz is still happy joining hands with Bibi /s

This would actually be shockingly good, much better than he got in any poll.

[danny]

Did anyone post link to results ?  I could not find it.

This is where they will be, but nothing is in yet:

https://votes24.bechirot.gov.il/nationalresults

[danny]

I dunno. Looking at Wikipedia, they have a poll where B&W would get 7 seats doesn't seem like a big reach.

It might a little better than their best poll, but there was a time when they were getting 4 or not passing at all. Basically the opposite of Saar who got slightly less than his worst late polls, but much less than where he was a couple of months ago.

[danny]

The channels have been updating their exit polls so now in the Channel 12 it's a 60-60 tie between the  Bibi coalition (including Yamina) and the anti Bibi parties. In a sign of how little we really know though in one exit poll Beitenu have 5 and in another they get 8, with differences like that everything is still up in the air.

[danny]

Channel 12 updated their exit poll again and now the anti Bibi parties are at 61.

[danny]

First 40K votes are in (obviously still unrepresentative).

[danny]

After 40K actual votes counted (%):
Likud: 29.32
Yesh Atid: 10.52
Shas: 7.92
Religious Zionism: 7.9
Beitenu: 7.09
Yamina: 6.93
Labour: 5.98
Blue And White: 5.62
UTJ: 4.52
New Hope: 4.14
Meretz: 3.33
Joint List: 2.88
RAAM: 2.2

[danny]

After 92K actual votes counted (%):
Likud: 28.75
Yesh Atid: 10.12
Shas: 8.08
Beitenu: 7.19
Yamina: 6.59
Religious Zionism: 6.52
Blue And White: 5.4
Labour: 5.14
UTJ: 5.01
Joint List: 4.4
New Hope: 4.11
RAAM: 4.03
Meretz: 3.13

[danny]

After 156K votes counted (%):
Likud: 27.09
Yesh Atid: 10.65
Shas: 7.88
Beitenu: 6.72
Yamina: 6.54
Religious Zionism: 6.45
UTJ: 5.88
Blue And White: 5.53
Labour: 5.33
Joint List: 4.55
RAAM: 4.37
New Hope: 4.14
Meretz: 3.34

[danny]

After 156K votes counted (%):
Likud: 27.09
Yesh Atid: 10.65
Shas: 7.88
Beitenu: 6.72
Yamina: 6.54
Religious Zionism: 6.45
UTJ: 5.88
Blue And White: 5.53
Labour: 5.33
Joint List: 4.55
RAAM: 4.37
New Hope: 4.14
Meretz: 3.34

After 417K votes counted (%):
Likud: 25.91
Yesh Atid: 11.43
Shas: 8.69
UTJ: 8.47
Beitenu: 6.1
Yamina: 5.86
Blue And White: 5.69
Religious Zionism: 5.36
Labour: 5.19
Joint List: 4.3
New Hope: 4.29
RAAM: 3.65
Meretz: 3.54

[danny]

After 156K votes counted (%):
Likud: 27.09
Yesh Atid: 10.65
Shas: 7.88
Beitenu: 6.72
Yamina: 6.54
Religious Zionism: 6.45
UTJ: 5.88
Blue And White: 5.53
Labour: 5.33
Joint List: 4.55
RAAM: 4.37
New Hope: 4.14
Meretz: 3.34

After 417K votes counted (%):
Likud: 25.91
Yesh Atid: 11.43
Shas: 8.69
UTJ: 8.47
Beitenu: 6.1
Yamina: 5.86
Blue And White: 5.69
Religious Zionism: 5.36
Labour: 5.19
Joint List: 4.3
New Hope: 4.29
RAAM: 3.65
Meretz: 3.54

why does that only add up to 87.43

I calculate that it adds up to 98.48 (the rest going to minor parties that I didn't bother writing).

[danny]

After 417K votes counted (%):
Likud: 25.91
Yesh Atid: 11.43
Shas: 8.69
UTJ: 8.47
Beitenu: 6.1
Yamina: 5.86
Blue And White: 5.69
Religious Zionism: 5.36
Labour: 5.19
Joint List: 4.3
New Hope: 4.29
RAAM: 3.65
Meretz: 3.54

After 505K votes counted (%):
Likud: 26.4
Yesh Atid: 11.64
Shas: 8.9
UTJ: 8.29
Beitenu: 6.17
Yamina: 5.8
Blue And White: 5.73
Religious Zionism: 5.24
Labour: 5.15
New Hope: 4.34
Joint List: 3.93
Meretz: 3.53
RAAM: 3.35

[danny]

After 505K votes counted (%):
Likud: 26.4
Yesh Atid: 11.64
Shas: 8.9
UTJ: 8.29
Beitenu: 6.17
Yamina: 5.8
Blue And White: 5.73
Religious Zionism: 5.24
Labour: 5.15
New Hope: 4.34
Joint List: 3.93
Meretz: 3.53
RAAM: 3.35

After 893K votes counted (%):
Likud: 25.13
Yesh Atid: 11.6
Shas: 8.66
UTJ: 7.93
Beitenu: 6.13
Blue And White: 5.76
Yamina: 5.73
Religious Zionism: 5.35
Labour: 5.22
Joint List: 5.04
New Hope: 4.36
RAAM: 3.83
Meretz: 3.76