TX-SEN: True to Form

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Hilarious to see Ted Cruz (principled Conservative fighter) running on the vitally important issue of NFL players standing.

The ad is hilarious for showing the reaction that Beto gets from the crowd- whilst the veteran gets a scant rounds of applause from an audience of people in their mid 80s.

But usual disclaimer about TV ads- they don't matter, they're never as important, they don't sway voters that Beto needs etc.  

Those 80 year olds are the electorate of Panola County, TX.

And anyway, if you look at the crowd, it is pretty clear they are not all that old. They are prime voting age, and vote they will.

[Blair]

Compare with Beto though.

https://twitter.com/BetoORourke/status/1041091869764198402

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Compare with Beto though.

https://twitter.com/BetoORourke/status/1041091869764198402

Compare with:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lakewood_Church



Hint - Obama did not win Texas.

[Blair]

The reality is that the folks in the Cruz campaign wish that they A.) Had the donor base B.) Had the grassroots enthuatism that Beto's campaign has had.

I've always been one to dismiss crowd/enthusiasm/momentum (see Corbyn 2015/Sanders 2016/Trump 2016) but the reality is that in every campaign I wished that the candidate I supported was able to actually get folks to turn out on a Saturday, and Sunday afternoon.

Cruz will probably win, but it's still fun to watch a genuinely authentic politician not be so god damn afraid of his own shadow. 

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

The reality is that the folks in the Cruz campaign wish that they A.) Had the donor base B.) Had the grassroots enthuatism that Beto's campaign has had.

I've always been one to dismiss crowd/enthusiasm/momentum (see Corbyn 2015/Sanders 2016/Trump 2016) but the reality is that in every campaign I wished that the candidate I supported was able to actually get folks to turn out on a Saturday, and Sunday afternoon.

Cruz will probably win, but it's still fun to watch a genuinely authentic politician not be so god damn afraid of his own shadow. 

I do agree with all that. I like Beto very much and will vote for him quite enthusiastically.

However, that does not mean that he will win. But it does speak to his skill as a politician that he has managed to successfully bamboozle large numbers of people into thinking that he actually has a realistic chance, and motivating people and giving them something to believe in for a better future is always a good thing.

[libertpaulian]

Beto's campaign is the jolt of electric shock that the Texas Democratic Party needs if it wants to have even the slightest hint of a viable future.

[Torrain]

After today’s news, I wonder which is more damaging for Cruz.
a) Voting for Kavanaugh and alienating independents, women in particular.
b) Voting against Kavanaugh to try and save face back home, cutting into the MAGA base.

I know this is a hypothetical given the current unknowns about the Kavanaugh confirmation, but Cruz is bound to be asked about it at the debates. Beto can just say that he opposes Kavanaugh, but Cruz has a tightrope to walk.

I’m sorry if this seems to be in bad taste, but it’s going to be a potentially important factor over the next few weeks. Given Kavanaugh’s historic unpopularity, even prior to the allegations this could be big with swingy suburban Romney Clinton voters.

[libertpaulian]

After today’s news, I wonder which is more damaging for Cruz.
a) Voting for Kavanaugh and alienating independents, women in particular.
b) Voting against Kavanaugh to try and save face back home, cutting into the MAGA base.

I know this is a hypothetical given the current unknowns about the Kavanaugh confirmation, but Cruz is bound to be asked about it at the debates. Beto can just say that he opposes Kavanaugh, but Cruz has a tightrope to walk.

I’m sorry if this seems to be in bad taste, but it’s going to be a potentially important factor over the next few weeks. Given Kavanaugh’s historic unpopularity, even prior to the allegations this could be big with swingy suburban Romney Clinton voters.

Not just the #MAGA base but your generic, cookie-cutter movement conservatives who are all gung-ho about issues like abortion, religious freedom laws, etc.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

After today’s news, I wonder which is more damaging for Cruz.
a) Voting for Kavanaugh and alienating independents, women in particular.
b) Voting against Kavanaugh to try and save face back home, cutting into the MAGA base.

I know this is a hypothetical given the current unknowns about the Kavanaugh confirmation, but Cruz is bound to be asked about it at the debates. Beto can just say that he opposes Kavanaugh, but Cruz has a tightrope to walk.

I’m sorry if this seems to be in bad taste, but it’s going to be a potentially important factor over the next few weeks. Given Kavanaugh’s historic unpopularity, even prior to the allegations this could be big with swingy suburban Romney Clinton voters.

Not just the #MAGA base but your generic, cookie-cutter movement conservatives who are all gung-ho about issues like abortion, religious freedom laws, etc.

I think the optimal thing for Republicans/Cruz could be:

1) Immediately pull Kavanaugh's nomination.
2) Trump announces that he is nominating Ted Cruz to the Supreme Court, and hearings will begin in a week or two.
3) If still possible (not sure if that is the case under Texas law or not), Cruz is replaced on the ballot by some other Texas Republican who is much more popular than he is. If not, then Cruz and Abbott make a joint announcement that if Cruz is re-elected, he will immediately resign and Abbott will appoint insert-more-popular-Texas-Republican-here to fill the seat. So effectively Cruz is replaced on the ballot by that other more popular Texas Republican.
4) Cruz wins the election, helped by the fact that voters know it will not be him that actually serves out the term.
5) Cruz is confirmed and goes to the Supreme Court, resigns from the Senate, and the other TX Republican takes over his Senate seat.

Many Senators would also be very happy with this arrangement because it would mean Ted Cruz would be out of the Senate and they would not have to deal with him any more, since everyone hates him.

[libertpaulian]

Beto needs to walk a very fine line with this Kavanaugh thing.  If Beto states that this sexual assault thing disqualifies Kavanaugh, I could easily see Team Cruz retorting back with "Oh, so what some guy does when he's in high school sullies his job prospects, but your DUI when you're 26 shouldn't disqualify you from this job?!"

[Antonio the Sixth]

Beto needs to walk a very fine line with this Kavanaugh thing.  If Beto states that this sexual assault thing disqualifies Kavanaugh, I could easily see Team Cruz retorting back with "Oh, so what some guy does when he's in high school sullies his job prospects, but your DUI when you're 26 shouldn't disqualify you from this job?!"

> rape
> drunk driving

Totally comparable

[wbrocks67]

Beto needs to walk a very fine line with this Kavanaugh thing.  If Beto states that this sexual assault thing disqualifies Kavanaugh, I could easily see Team Cruz retorting back with "Oh, so what some guy does when he's in high school sullies his job prospects, but your DUI when you're 26 shouldn't disqualify you from this job?!"

> rape
> drunk driving

Totally comparable

Yeah, that comparison makes no sense. I think Beto will be quite fine...

[Torrain]

Beto needs to walk a very fine line with this Kavanaugh thing.  If Beto states that this sexual assault thing disqualifies Kavanaugh, I could easily see Team Cruz retorting back with "Oh, so what some guy does when he's in high school sullies his job prospects, but your DUI when you're 26 shouldn't disqualify you from this job?!"

> rape
> drunk driving

Totally comparable

Yeah, that comparison makes no sense. I think Beto will be quite fine...

That doesn't mean Cruz won't try it.
That being said, Beto just has to say that he believes the accuser. Cruz still may be held to account based on his up-or-down vote. Having to explain his vote for Kavanaugh to independents and surburban women won't be fun

[libertpaulian]

Beto needs to walk a very fine line with this Kavanaugh thing.  If Beto states that this sexual assault thing disqualifies Kavanaugh, I could easily see Team Cruz retorting back with "Oh, so what some guy does when he's in high school sullies his job prospects, but your DUI when you're 26 shouldn't disqualify you from this job?!"

> rape
> drunk driving

Totally comparable

You do realize drunk driving can result in the death of other drivers, passengers, and/or pedestrians, right?!

[Antonio the Sixth]

Beto needs to walk a very fine line with this Kavanaugh thing.  If Beto states that this sexual assault thing disqualifies Kavanaugh, I could easily see Team Cruz retorting back with "Oh, so what some guy does when he's in high school sullies his job prospects, but your DUI when you're 26 shouldn't disqualify you from this job?!"

> rape
> drunk driving

Totally comparable

You do realize drunk driving can result in the death of other drivers, passengers, and/or pedestrians, right?!

That's not how morality works unless you're a hardcore utilitarian creep.

[BaldEagle1991]

Beto needs to walk a very fine line with this Kavanaugh thing.  If Beto states that this sexual assault thing disqualifies Kavanaugh, I could easily see Team Cruz retorting back with "Oh, so what some guy does when he's in high school sullies his job prospects, but your DUI when you're 26 shouldn't disqualify you from this job?!"

Every time Cruz has tried to hurt Beto with his personal past it has hurt Cruz more than it does Beto.

I don't think he'd respond like that.

[NHI]

Beto needs to walk a very fine line with this Kavanaugh thing.  If Beto states that this sexual assault thing disqualifies Kavanaugh, I could easily see Team Cruz retorting back with "Oh, so what some guy does when he's in high school sullies his job prospects, but your DUI when you're 26 shouldn't disqualify you from this job?!"

Every time Cruz has tried to hurt Beto with his personal past it has hurt Cruz more than it does Beto.

I don't think he'd respond like that.

[The Mikado]

Beto was interviewed on the Late Show with Stephen Colbert last night.

O'Rourke said on the show (at 5:34) that "they" (whoever that is) traveled all 254 counties of Texas.
Is that even possible, or is it just a saying?

O'Rourke's campaign absolutely has visited all 254 counties. It's something you can do when you're running in one state for a year and a half.

A lot of West Texas counties are, like, one town of under a thousand people separated 20-25 miles from the next one, so you can hit quite a few of them on one bus trip.

[The Mikado]

After today’s news, I wonder which is more damaging for Cruz.
a) Voting for Kavanaugh and alienating independents, women in particular.
b) Voting against Kavanaugh to try and save face back home, cutting into the MAGA base.

I know this is a hypothetical given the current unknowns about the Kavanaugh confirmation, but Cruz is bound to be asked about it at the debates. Beto can just say that he opposes Kavanaugh, but Cruz has a tightrope to walk.

I’m sorry if this seems to be in bad taste, but it’s going to be a potentially important factor over the next few weeks. Given Kavanaugh’s historic unpopularity, even prior to the allegations this could be big with swingy suburban Romney Clinton voters.

Not just the #MAGA base but your generic, cookie-cutter movement conservatives who are all gung-ho about issues like abortion, religious freedom laws, etc.

I think the optimal thing for Republicans/Cruz could be:

1) Immediately pull Kavanaugh's nomination.
2) Trump announces that he is nominating Ted Cruz to the Supreme Court, and hearings will begin in a week or two.
3) If still possible (not sure if that is the case under Texas law or not), Cruz is replaced on the ballot by some other Texas Republican who is much more popular than he is. If not, then Cruz and Abbott make a joint announcement that if Cruz is re-elected, he will immediately resign and Abbott will appoint insert-more-popular-Texas-Republican-here to fill the seat. So effectively Cruz is replaced on the ballot by that other more popular Texas Republican.
4) Cruz wins the election, helped by the fact that voters know it will not be him that actually serves out the term.
5) Cruz is confirmed and goes to the Supreme Court, resigns from the Senate, and the other TX Republican takes over his Senate seat.

Many Senators would also be very happy with this arrangement because it would mean Ted Cruz would be out of the Senate and they would not have to deal with him any more, since everyone hates him.

Given how much Ted Cruz's colleagues in the Senate dislike him, he might be coasting for a unanimous confirmation to the SCOTUS just to get him out of the Senate.

[junior chįmp]

🚨🚨🚨 First time ever Cruz has dropped below 60 on the betting markets 🚨🚨🚨



Is this the end of Lyin Ted Cruz?!

[aaroncd107]

Quinnipiac poll coming tomorrow.

[Virginiá]

One Republican Official Challenged Thousands Of Voter Registrations In His County. It Could Happen Elsewhere.

https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/republican-challenge-voter-registration-houston_us_5b9fb69ce4b046313fbd65d3

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Welp, it wouldn't be a bonafide Texas election without dirty tricks I suppose

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Quinnipiac poll coming tomorrow.

I'm going to guess it will have Cruz +5.

EDIT --- revising my prediction to Cruz +2 because Quinnipiac uses random digit dialing ---

An important thing to watch is the undecideds. If it is close, it will probably have high undecideds.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Quinnipiac poll coming tomorrow.

what were the results of the previous Quinnipiac polls

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Quinnipiac poll coming tomorrow.

what were the results of the previous Quinnipiac polls

Cruz 49 - Beto 43 (7/26 - 7/31)