RCP 2018 average: Cruz +6.8 > off by 4.2% towards D
583 2018 final forecast: Cruz +4.9-5.3 > off by 2.3-2.7% towards D
538's poll average right now is Trump +2.0 and their forecast is Trump +4.0. If we see the same 2-4% problem again, Biden wins.
I wish Q-pac released their RV # too. I have a feeling the LV model is the problem here.
By this definition, WI is tilt Trump as he is down 6.6 points in the RCP average vs 6.5 last time and if you apply same polling error than Trump wins WI.
This, 2016/2018 polling errors ≠ 2020 polling errors
