Qunnipiac: Trump +5 in TX, Biden +1 in OH

[libertpaulian]

You think it'd be the opposite.

https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/1309191138511859714

[SaneDemocrat]

https://poll.qu.edu/ohio/release-detail?ReleaseID=3675

[Tender Branson]

TX sadly slipping away a bit from Uncle Joe ... but OH would also be nice.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

97% of voters in Ohio say they have made up their mind, 94% in Texas.

[OSR stands with Israel]

I think the Court battle will help Trump in the Sunbelt while hurt him in the Midwest(around point for both)

[Buzz]

Texas

Lean R —> Likely R

[Tender Branson]

BTW:

SurveyMonkey/Axios also has Biden+1 in OH and Trump+3 in TX.

[MT Treasurer]

No.

[ajc0918]

Reminder that the Trump campaign is off the air in Ohio because they can't afford it.

[Devils30]

Q has the same issue with Latinos in TX as FL. Biden +8?? Most likely Trump is better with whites than in this poll but a lot worse with Latinos.

[President Johnson]

Not bad overall. Keep in mind Joe Biden doesn't need either, while Trump absolutely has to win both to maintain any chance for victory in the Electoral College.

[VAR]

Trump approval:
OH 46/51 (-5)
TX 50/48 (+2)

[KaiserDave]

I can't believe either of these. No. No.

2020 is not 2012.

However Ohio going Dem would be incredibly based

[Landslide Lyndon]

If we take under consideration Quinnipiac's own national poll, Ohio makes sense but Texas doesn't.
Not to mention that 2018 confirmed that these two states were going in opposite directions.

[wbrocks67]

Q has the same issue with Latinos in TX as FL. Biden +8?? Most likely Trump is better with whites than in this poll but a lot worse with Latinos.

Yeah, was just gonna say. For some reason, Q-pac has a huge problem contacting Latinos. But I think this sample is just super R-leaning in general. Biden has the support of 95% of democrats and an +8 lead among Indies (Beto only won them by 3) and he's still losing by 5. The "likely voter" sample seems to benefit Rs a lot here. Plus, they have Trump at 19% with blacks and 43% with Hispanics which both are really out of step.

I'm not really convinced Ohio is this close just b/c we've been burned here before, but Biden is leading +1 here even while losing 18-34 year olds which is obviously not gonna happen. So who knows.

[Skill and Chance]

Trump now leading Biden on response to COVID in Texas.  Blue Texas 2020 is probably over.  Wonder if this is close enough to flip the state house given the dummymander map?

[wbrocks67]

Q has the same issue with Latinos in TX as FL. Biden +8?? Most likely Trump is better with whites than in this poll but a lot worse with Latinos.

To add to this, just like in 2018 when they severely underestimated Beto in all of their polls:

Cruz +5, Cruz +9, Cruz +9, Cruz +6, Cruz +11

[Terry the Fat Shark]

lmao

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

I don't believe either of these results. Also, Quinnipiac needs to get better at polling Black and Latino people.

[Gass3268]

This might push Ohio to Biden at 538.

[Bootes Void]

I can't believe either of these. No. No.

2020 is not 2012.

However Ohio going Dem would be incredibly based

I think Ohio is more likely to dem. The 2020 result will be 2/3 2016 and 1/3 2012 on the results

[wbrocks67]

Although if you think about it: it may not be that surprising. Hasn't Biden been up with ads in Ohio for a while now? While Trump is too broke to even spend $$$ there. If this is accurate, that could be a major reason why.

[Gass3268]

Texas

Lean R —> Likely R

Lol

Trump up 5! Likely R!
Biden up 5! Toss Up!

[VAR]

See, I told you guys, Quinnipiac is not a high-quality pollster.

[wbrocks67]

I don't believe either of these results. Also, Quinnipiac needs to get better at polling Black and Latino people.

It appears that it's limited to the sun-belt stats. They have Ohio at 91% Biden with blacks and 6% Trump which is probably very close to the likely result. For some reason though, in places like TX, FL, AZ, they have a really hard time with it. Or a bad LV model.