North Carolina 2020 Redistricting

[lfromnj]

If the Republicans are bold enough to do a mid decade gerrymander, I wonder who would likely win the primaries where Democrat incumbents get shoved together? Presumably Jeff Jackson and Alma Adams in a Charlotte district, and Wiley Nickel and Deborah Ross in a Raleigh one.

Assuming Stein runs for Governor, Jackson would likely just go for AG. Ross should be pretty favored for the Raleigh seat.

Jackson is wise enough to know that he probably doesn't have a shot against Adams. I'm not sure though if Jackson wouldn't just run for Governor though.

I assume Ross would also have the strong advantage against Nickel.

Yeah Nickel might just either do best to pick something statewide or hope the GOP doesn't make the seat unwinnable which isn't an impossibility IMO as it was under the original map where they merely just put the Wake leftovers with Cumberland and JoCo. Bo Hines seems to want to run again and its not impossible Nickel could win. If I recall correctly that seat was within a few hundred votes in the 2020 gubernatorial race so a very tough pull but still a possibility.

[GALeftist]

Their old map was fine but for its attempt to screw Cawthorn which Edwards will probably want them to change. Honestly even as the court drew it NC-01 was likely not long for this world. The Research Triangle really needs two seats for security though.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Their old map was fine but for its attempt to screw Cawthorn which Edwards will probably want them to change. Honestly even as the court drew it NC-01 was likely not long for this world. The Research Triangle really needs two seats for security though.

Yeah I tried 1 Durham-Raleigh pack and any way you do it is too close for comfort.

I'm pretty sure Rs will go for an 11-3 map, perhaps with a close NC-01 with the intention that the declining black belt population will push it right, as was the case in their original map.

On the old map, 10 and 13 both had votes to give so they could prolly find a way to push NC-11 a few points right. My guess is they just do a natural Trump + 12 NC-11 config like it is on the current map.

[patzer]

I assume Ross would also have the strong advantage against Nickel.

Might depend on how the new seat is drawn? If they drew it towards the south of Wake County to be akin to the 2021-23 2nd district, it’d probably contain more of Nickel’s base than Ross’s.

[lfromnj]

I assume Ross would also have the strong advantage against Nickel.

Might depend on how the new seat is drawn? If they drew it towards the south of Wake County to be akin to the 2021-23 2nd district, it’d probably contain more of Nickel’s base than Ross’s.

Back then then Wake + Durham+ Orange wasn't even  2 full seats and you could still add 3 fairly medium sized rurals/exurban counties. Now Orange + Wake+Durham has a spare 100k along with 2 seats to begin with with  and if you leave the northern portion of the county open you ruin the GOP opportunity for the black seat. Instead of having a clearly R trending swing seat you now have a mix trending seat. The south can easily be bared with either rurals far to the west or just make a hodgepodge of the Research triangle exurbs with the remaining 100k of Wake.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I assume Ross would also have the strong advantage against Nickel.

Might depend on how the new seat is drawn? If they drew it towards the south of Wake County to be akin to the 2021-23 2nd district, it’d probably contain more of Nickel’s base than Ross’s.

Back then then Wake + Durham+ Orange wasn't even  2 full seats and you could still add 3 fairly medium sized rurals/exurban counties. Now Orange + Wake+Durham has a spare 100k to begin with with  and if you leave the northern portion of the county open you ruin the oppurtunity for the black seat. Instead of having a clearly R trending swing seat you now have a mix trending seat. The south can easily be bared with either rurals far to the west or just make a hodgepodge of the Research triangle exurbs with the remaining 100k of Wake.

Not only is that part of the state growing very fast, but the state gained a new seat. So it makes sense.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Yeah 12-2 is basically impossible now. The northern Wake seat only barely went to Trump and voted for Cooper in 2020.

[Mr.Phips]

Yeah 12-2 is basically impossible now. The northern Wake seat only barely went to Trump and voted for Cooper in 2020.

It’s been pretty much impossible for the last decade, which is why Republicans didn’t do it in 2011.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Yeah 12-2 is basically impossible now. The northern Wake seat only barely went to Trump and voted for Cooper in 2020.

It’s been pretty much impossible for the last decade, which is why Republicans didn’t do it in 2011.

Last decade you could’ve done the NC-12 snake, the Raleigh-Durham pack, and a swing black belt seat.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Yeah 12-2 is basically impossible now. The northern Wake seat only barely went to Trump and voted for Cooper in 2020.

It’s been pretty much impossible for the last decade, which is why Republicans didn’t do it in 2011.

Last decade you could’ve done the NC-12 snake, the Raleigh-Durham pack, and a swing black belt seat.

Just look at the 2013-2017 map.

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/decunningham2/status/1603792842718998528?cxt=HHwWgMCjufvF6ME...

[Torie]

https://twitter.com/decunningham2/status/1603792842718998528?cxt=HHwWgMCjufvF6ME...

The hope that stare decisis might have some traction with the new members of the Court.

[BenjiG98]

https://twitter.com/RedistrictNet/status/1616478202469437440

[ProgressiveModerate]

I wouldn't be suprised if the GOP re-uses their original gerrymander that was struck down, except redraw NC-11 after seeing the 2022 results (and the fact Cawthorn no longer represents the seat).

I also wonder if they try to shore up the old 4 given Johnston County shifted left from 2022 Senate and might not be reliable enough to cancel out Fayetteville's vote for the rest of the decade.

[BenjiG98]

NC Supreme Court will re-hear the redistricting (and voter ID) case March 14-15 this year.

https://twitter.com/RedistrictNet/status/1624070510366670850?s=20

[Vern]

And it begins

[ProgressiveModerate]

What do ya'll think Rs do with NC-11? After the 2020 and 2022 results, there does seem to be reason to think that area is shifting left; Beasley literally outran Biden. On their previous gerrymander, NC-14 (NC-11 equivalent) was one of the closer R seats, perhaps in an effort to get rid of Cawthorn. A "naturally nested" NC-11 like the one on the current map is Trump + 10; decently red and probably enough to survive the decade, but not 100% secure either if shifts continue.

Does the GOP go with their old config (~Trump + 6), a "natural" config (~Trump + 10), or something more aggressive?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Behold!
A clean-ish 12R-2D map!
https://davesredistricting.org/join/2aca0b34-1714-412c-844c-1576392cf6b6

[Spectator]

Behold!
A clean-ish 12R-2D map!
https://davesredistricting.org/join/2aca0b34-1714-412c-844c-1576392cf6b6

Can’t open it on my phone, but I guess by reopening the case, they FAFO by prodding NY to redraw theirs too. Play stupid games, win stupid prizes. They’re gonna need at least 4 or 5 flips out of here to make up for the 6-7 inevitable losses out of NY.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

The big problem with a 12R-2D at this stage is 1) it kinda requires carving up the 1st, which is a...gutsy move to say the least, and 2) it requires taking precincts for the Durham seat very carefully, choosing only the highest-numerical vote margin ones mostly. 2) still inevitably leads to at least two Cooper-won seats in Wake. Balancing them to all be Cooper by a marginal amount (like, Cooper+4 at worst) creates a series of R seats after splitting up Wake County Austin-style, but if the state trends hard enough, it risks creating a dummymander.
Btw, the 7th on my map is insanely polarized geographically.

NC-07, outside of Wake 336,172
Democratic 57,048 30.2%
Republican 129,217 68.5%

NC-07, Wake 411,213
Democratic 141,087 62.0%
Republican 81,916 36.0%

NC-07 (in total) 747,385
Democratic 170,559 46.6%
Republican 189,830 51.9%

(2020-PRES)

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Behold!
A clean-ish 12R-2D map!
https://davesredistricting.org/join/2aca0b34-1714-412c-844c-1576392cf6b6

That map feel very icarusy to me. I could image some, if not all, of the Biden ~46% seats flipping by the end of the decade.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Behold!
A clean-ish 12R-2D map!
https://davesredistricting.org/join/2aca0b34-1714-412c-844c-1576392cf6b6

That map feel very icarusy to me. I could image some, if not all, of the Biden ~46% seats flipping by the end of the decade.

What do you think is the worst-case scenario for Rs in 2030? The best-case? And the median?

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Behold!
A clean-ish 12R-2D map!
https://davesredistricting.org/join/2aca0b34-1714-412c-844c-1576392cf6b6

That map feel very icarusy to me. I could image some, if not all, of the Biden ~46% seats flipping by the end of the decade.

What do you think is the worst-case scenario for Rs in 2030? The best-case? And the median?

Best case scenario would be the start tacking a little to the right as the suburbs stabilize and the rurals turn more red. Worst case is Wake/Mecklenburg start growing like Atlanta as the cost of living in the rest of the country continues to spiral and end up voting like Fulton. Median would be somewhere between, a small democratic swing but growth slows by the end of decade.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Behold!
A clean-ish 12R-2D map!
https://davesredistricting.org/join/2aca0b34-1714-412c-844c-1576392cf6b6

That map feel very icarusy to me. I could image some, if not all, of the Biden ~46% seats flipping by the end of the decade.

What do you think is the worst-case scenario for Rs in 2030? The best-case? And the median?

Best case scenario would be the start tacking a little to the right as the suburbs stabilize and the rurals turn more red. Worst case is Wake/Mecklenburg start growing like Atlanta as the cost of living in the rest of the country continues to spiral and end up voting like Fulton. Median would be somewhere between, a small democratic swing but growth slows by the end of decade.

I meant in seat count. Thanks for the reply either way, of course.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Behold!
A clean-ish 12R-2D map!
https://davesredistricting.org/join/2aca0b34-1714-412c-844c-1576392cf6b6

That map feel very icarusy to me. I could image some, if not all, of the Biden ~46% seats flipping by the end of the decade.

What do you think is the worst-case scenario for Rs in 2030? The best-case? And the median?

Best case scenario would be the start tacking a little to the right as the suburbs stabilize and the rurals turn more red. Worst case is Wake/Mecklenburg start growing like Atlanta as the cost of living in the rest of the country continues to spiral and end up voting like Fulton. Median would be somewhere between, a small democratic swing but growth slows by the end of decade.

I meant in seat count. Thanks for the reply either way, of course.

Ah do you mean your map or in general.