Kentucky 2023 gubernatorial election megathread

[Bandit3 the Worker]

I think turnout is going to be very low.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

I think I'm going to revise to Beshear+4.5
I don't trust the GOP anymore in these odd year elections especially after 2022 and Beshear seems like a strong enough incumbent to escape partisanship. I also had Bevin winning last time so I want to reduce my R bias. That being said Daniel Cameron seems like a great fit for the future of the KYGOP, and if he doesn't win tomorrow I hope he replaces McConnell.

[oldkyhome]

I think turnout is going to be very low.

This, but it’ll mainly hurt Cameron. What the polls are missing is the crippling lack of Republican enthusiasm this cycle.

[Alben Barkley]

I think turnout is going to be very low.

Really? I think the opposite.

I also think that if Andy loses, it will be in part because he failed to do enough to tie Cameron to the hated, 75% unfavorably rated Mitch McConnell. He should have emphasized their close ties and hinted that Cameron only views the governorship as a stepping stone to the Senate. If he hired me, that would have been the primary theme of this campaign. In the last few days/weeks especially, I worry because Cameron has gone full on blitzkrieg with advertisements painting Beshear as soft on crime, out of step with KY cultural values, and pro-Biden/anti-Trump. While Beshear's best response is "Hey, you know me and like me don't you?" and "Here's some doctors who don't like Cameron's healthcare plan." It just feels like he's bringing a knife to a gunfight, and like the Republicans have dumped a ton of money at the last minute into this race while the Democrats have failed to respond.

This is why I will sadly not be surprised by a loss tomorrow.

[MT Treasurer]

Not sure if this has been clarified yet as I've seen this said multiple times in this thread but Laura Kelly did not lose ground in her re-election - she increased her vote share against lower turnout, a significantly less favorable political climate, and a more popular opponent.

This is like arguing that Bob Dole did not "lose ground" compared to George H. W. Bush because he increased the R vote share between 1992 and 1996.

Different candidates, I know, but the elephant in the room here is Orman. You cannot compare a race with a high-profile independent challenger to one without as that will always affect vote share of the other candidate(s). Without Orman, Kelly would probably not have increased her vote share/the difference would have been near-negligible.

Your focus on vote share as opposed to margins works much better in polling, I think.

[oldkyhome]

I think turnout is going to be very low.

Really? I think the opposite.

I also think that if Andy loses, it will be in part because he failed to do enough to tie Cameron to the hated, 75% unfavorably rated Mitch McConnell. He should have emphasized their close ties and hinted that Cameron only views the governorship as a stepping stone to the Senate. If he hired me, that would have been the primary theme of this campaign. In the last few days/weeks especially, I worry because Cameron has gone full on blitzkrieg with advertisements painting Beshear as soft on crime, out of step with KY cultural values, and pro-Biden/anti-Trump. While Beshear's best response is "Hey, you know me and like me don't you?" and "Here's some doctors who don't like Cameron's healthcare plan." It just feels like he's bringing a knife to a gunfight, and like the Republicans have dumped a ton of money at the last minute into this race while the Democrats have failed to respond.

This is why I will sadly not be surprised by a loss tomorrow.

What polls have shown consistently over the past year is that almost without-exception Andy has locked up half of Kentucky voters. By galvanizing the other half of the electorate with petty personal attacks, he would not only supercharge his opposition but also probably alienate his own supporters who appreciate his uncontroversial good guy image.

[Alben Barkley]

I think turnout is going to be very low.

Really? I think the opposite.

I also think that if Andy loses, it will be in part because he failed to do enough to tie Cameron to the hated, 75% unfavorably rated Mitch McConnell. He should have emphasized their close ties and hinted that Cameron only views the governorship as a stepping stone to the Senate. If he hired me, that would have been the primary theme of this campaign. In the last few days/weeks especially, I worry because Cameron has gone full on blitzkrieg with advertisements painting Beshear as soft on crime, out of step with KY cultural values, and pro-Biden/anti-Trump. While Beshear's best response is "Hey, you know me and like me don't you?" and "Here's some doctors who don't like Cameron's healthcare plan." It just feels like he's bringing a knife to a gunfight, and like the Republicans have dumped a ton of money at the last minute into this race while the Democrats have failed to respond.

This is why I will sadly not be surprised by a loss tomorrow.

What polls have shown consistently over the past year is that almost without-exception Andy has locked up half of Kentucky voters. By galvanizing the other half of the electorate with petty personal attacks, he would not only supercharge his opposition but also probably alienate his own supporters who appreciate his uncontroversial good guy image.

It would be a "petty personal attack" to go after Cameron for his personal life or worse, dogwhistle about his race. But going after him for his close and deep ties to Cocaine Mitch would NOT be a "petty personal attack," it would be fair game based on the fact that they really do have close and deep ties and it's purely political; there is a lot of evidence that Cameron is trying to game Kentucky politics to position himself the best to replace McConnell in the Senate. I don't understand why you leave that line of attack on the table.

Also you don't necessarily win with half or near-half of the electorate. You have to do SOMETHING to win over the swing voters. All I'm saying is this COULD have been a winning attack. We'll never know, I guess.

[oldkyhome]

I think turnout is going to be very low.

Really? I think the opposite.

I also think that if Andy loses, it will be in part because he failed to do enough to tie Cameron to the hated, 75% unfavorably rated Mitch McConnell. He should have emphasized their close ties and hinted that Cameron only views the governorship as a stepping stone to the Senate. If he hired me, that would have been the primary theme of this campaign. In the last few days/weeks especially, I worry because Cameron has gone full on blitzkrieg with advertisements painting Beshear as soft on crime, out of step with KY cultural values, and pro-Biden/anti-Trump. While Beshear's best response is "Hey, you know me and like me don't you?" and "Here's some doctors who don't like Cameron's healthcare plan." It just feels like he's bringing a knife to a gunfight, and like the Republicans have dumped a ton of money at the last minute into this race while the Democrats have failed to respond.

This is why I will sadly not be surprised by a loss tomorrow.

What polls have shown consistently over the past year is that almost without-exception Andy has locked up half of Kentucky voters. By galvanizing the other half of the electorate with petty personal attacks, he would not only supercharge his opposition but also probably alienate his own supporters who appreciate his uncontroversial good guy image.

It would be a "petty personal attack" to go after Cameron for his personal life or worse, dogwhistle about his race. But going after him for his close and deep ties to Cocaine Mitch would NOT be a "petty personal attack," it would be fair game based on the fact that they really do have close and deep ties and it's purely political; there is a lot of evidence that Cameron is trying to game Kentucky politics to position himself the best to replace McConnell in the Senate. I don't understand why you leave that line of attack on the table.

Also you don't necessarily win with half or near-half of the electorate. You have to do SOMETHING to win over the swing voters. All I'm saying is this COULD have been a winning attack. We'll never know, I guess.

I’m not sure voters would see it that way. Cameron and co’s onslaught of attacks during the July-August phase undoubtedly hurt his numbers and dampened enthusiasm in his ranks. Andy was smart to steer clear of that, I think.

[Alben Barkley]

Well, honestly folks I'm scared. I'm scared that I might have seen the last Democratic statewide victory in my home state in my lifetime in 2019. I hope I'm wrong, I really do. But if I'm not?

Well I mourn the loss of Democratic Kentucky, and will go down knowing that I took a stand to try to stop it.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Does anyone have the county benchmarks that Beshear needs to be hitting to win again? I was thinking of using 2019 since he barely one, but I feel like his coalition has shifted enough since then.

[Tekken_Guy]

Does anyone have the county benchmarks that Beshear needs to be hitting to win again? I was thinking of using 2019 since he barely one, but I feel like his coalition has shifted enough since then.

Maybe use the 2022 abortion referendum (shifted a few points to the right), or the median between the two.

[EastwoodS]

Why are KY Democratic internals always D+8?😂😂😂😂like the KY Democratic Party could cease to exist tomorrow and I’m pretty sure their polls would still be D+8. This just means they’re tied but too afraid to admit it.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Why are KY Democratic internals always D+8?😂😂😂😂like the KY Democratic Party could cease to exist tomorrow and I’m pretty sure their polls would still be D+8. This just means they’re tied but too afraid to admit it.

The state has 8 electoral votes?

[EastwoodS]

Why are KY Democratic internals always D+8?😂😂😂😂like the KY Democratic Party could cease to exist tomorrow and I’m pretty sure their polls would still be D+8. This just means they’re tied but too afraid to admit it.

The state has 8 electoral votes?

broke the matrix

[BigSkyBob]

I think turnout is going to be very low.

Really? I think the opposite.

I also think that if Andy loses, it will be in part because he failed to do enough to tie Cameron to the hated, 75% unfavorably rated Mitch McConnell. He should have emphasized their close ties and hinted that Cameron only views the governorship as a stepping stone to the Senate. If he hired me, that would have been the primary theme of this campaign. In the last few days/weeks especially, I worry because Cameron has gone full on blitzkrieg with advertisements painting Beshear as soft on crime, out of step with KY cultural values, and pro-Biden/anti-Trump. While Beshear's best response is "Hey, you know me and like me don't you?" and "Here's some doctors who don't like Cameron's healthcare plan." It just feels like he's bringing a knife to a gunfight, and like the Republicans have dumped a ton of money at the last minute into this race while the Democrats have failed to respond.

This is why I will sadly not be surprised by a loss tomorrow.

What polls have shown consistently over the past year is that almost without-exception Andy has locked up half of Kentucky voters. By galvanizing the other half of the electorate with petty personal attacks, he would not only supercharge his opposition but also probably alienate his own supporters who appreciate his uncontroversial good guy image.

The polls most certainly have not shown "Andy has locked up half of Kentucky voters." No poll has shown Andy Bashear to have the "certain support" of 50% of Kentuckians. Historically, over 50% well before the election was a good score; less than 50% a couple of week before the election was a lousy result; and less than 50% just before election day with few undecides was a mediocre score. The race has changed. We have witness Bashear slip from an almost commanding position to a mediocre one. He might pull it off. Then again, he might lose.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Ds are looking for the sweeper

[Duke of York]

Ds are looking for the sweeper

Are you predicting Beshear wins?

[EastwoodS]

I think turnout is going to be very low.

Really? I think the opposite.

I also think that if Andy loses, it will be in part because he failed to do enough to tie Cameron to the hated, 75% unfavorably rated Mitch McConnell. He should have emphasized their close ties and hinted that Cameron only views the governorship as a stepping stone to the Senate. If he hired me, that would have been the primary theme of this campaign. In the last few days/weeks especially, I worry because Cameron has gone full on blitzkrieg with advertisements painting Beshear as soft on crime, out of step with KY cultural values, and pro-Biden/anti-Trump. While Beshear's best response is "Hey, you know me and like me don't you?" and "Here's some doctors who don't like Cameron's healthcare plan." It just feels like he's bringing a knife to a gunfight, and like the Republicans have dumped a ton of money at the last minute into this race while the Democrats have failed to respond.

This is why I will sadly not be surprised by a loss tomorrow.

What polls have shown consistently over the past year is that almost without-exception Andy has locked up half of Kentucky voters. By galvanizing the other half of the electorate with petty personal attacks, he would not only supercharge his opposition but also probably alienate his own supporters who appreciate his uncontroversial good guy image.

The polls most certainly have not shown "Andy has locked up half of Kentucky voters." No poll has shown Andy Bashear to have the "certain support" of 50% of Kentuckians. Historically, over 50% well before the election was a good score; less than 50% a couple of week before the election was a lousy result; and less than 50% just before election day with few undecides was a mediocre score. The race has changed. We have witness Bashear slip from an almost commanding position to a mediocre one. He might pull it off. Then again, he might lose.

The D internal had like 12% undecided? That makes no sense right before Election Day does it

[BigSkyBob]

I think turnout is going to be very low.

Really? I think the opposite.

I also think that if Andy loses, it will be in part because he failed to do enough to tie Cameron to the hated, 75% unfavorably rated Mitch McConnell. He should have emphasized their close ties and hinted that Cameron only views the governorship as a stepping stone to the Senate. If he hired me, that would have been the primary theme of this campaign. In the last few days/weeks especially, I worry because Cameron has gone full on blitzkrieg with advertisements painting Beshear as soft on crime, out of step with KY cultural values, and pro-Biden/anti-Trump. While Beshear's best response is "Hey, you know me and like me don't you?" and "Here's some doctors who don't like Cameron's healthcare plan." It just feels like he's bringing a knife to a gunfight, and like the Republicans have dumped a ton of money at the last minute into this race while the Democrats have failed to respond.

This is why I will sadly not be surprised by a loss tomorrow.

What polls have shown consistently over the past year is that almost without-exception Andy has locked up half of Kentucky voters. By galvanizing the other half of the electorate with petty personal attacks, he would not only supercharge his opposition but also probably alienate his own supporters who appreciate his uncontroversial good guy image.

The polls most certainly have not shown "Andy has locked up half of Kentucky voters." No poll has shown Andy Bashear to have the "certain support" of 50% of Kentuckians. Historically, over 50% well before the election was a good score; less than 50% a couple of week before the election was a lousy result; and less than 50% just before election day with few undecides was a mediocre score. The race has changed. We have witness Bashear slip from an almost commanding position to a mediocre one. He might pull it off. Then again, he might lose.

The D internal had like 12% undecided? That makes no sense right before Election Day does it

It makes no sense whatsoever. It suggests to me selective "pushing" of the undecided vote probably those the pollster think are more apt to choose the candidate commissioning the poll.

[walleye26]

My guess will be Beshear +1.5. However, I wouldn’t be surprised by a Cameron win, this is Kentucky after all.

[wbrocks67]

I get that partisanship is strong since its KY, but it's still weird to me that something happened here that we saw last year too -- this invisible "momentum" story that apparently every GOP candidate seems to get towards the end, when in fact, at least recently, most of the time it's completely not tied to reality and simply just made up.

Again, this is KY, and not PA, or AZ, or wherever. But still, Cameron has objectively done nothing differently in the last week or two that he's been doing the whole campaign, so any type of momentum outside of simply partisanship makes no sense to me.

[BigSkyBob]

I get that partisanship is strong since its KY, but it's still weird to me that something happened here that we saw last year too -- this invisible "momentum" story that apparently every GOP candidate seems to get towards the end, when in fact, at least recently, most of the time it's completely not tied to reality and simply just made up.

Again, this is KY, and not PA, or AZ, or wherever. But still, Cameron has objectively done nothing differently in the last week or two that he's been doing the whole campaign, so any type of momentum outside of simply partisanship makes no sense to me.

HAMAS.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

In Kentucky and probably every other state and territory in America, there had long been a big chunk of economically liberal voters who almost always voted against Republicans because of things that happened under Reagan, George H.W. Bush, or people much earlier. This was not a fringe movement. The Democrats owed a lot of their wins to this large constituency. The Republican brand was poison to these voters.

These voters were common in very urban and very rural areas, but rare in rich suburbs.

But since 2020, this constituency has almost completely evaporated.

[Unelectable Bystander]

Where are voter turnout reports posted?

[Unbeatable Titan Susan Collins]

I get that partisanship is strong since its KY, but it's still weird to me that something happened here that we saw last year too -- this invisible "momentum" story that apparently every GOP candidate seems to get towards the end, when in fact, at least recently, most of the time it's completely not tied to reality and simply just made up.

Again, this is KY, and not PA, or AZ, or wherever. But still, Cameron has objectively done nothing differently in the last week or two that he's been doing the whole campaign, so any type of momentum outside of simply partisanship makes no sense to me.

At least when I used to do some work in campaigns, there are some "undecided voters" who always vote 1 way in the end, but really like thinking they are undecided for most of the race. I think the GOP recently has had  more of those voters. Could be related to trust.