Rate TX-07 for 2020

[Lisa's voting Biden]

This district has a PVI of R+7. It voted for Romney by 21.3% in 2012, but voted for Clinton by 1.4% in 2016. It also voted for O'Rourke by 7% in 2018.

Recent Results
2018: D +5%
2016: R +12.3%
2014: R +28.8%
2012: R +24.4%

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Lean D

[Gracile]

Likely D. This district's demographic profile has become far more favorable to Democrats in the last few years, and it's hard to imagine Republicans making a comeback.

[Xing]

Likely D, since a trend that big isn't just going to reverse itself.

[SnowLabrador]

Tilt D. I expect Trump to carry Texas by about 10%.

[Politics Fan]

Likely D, Fletcher only loses if Trump can somehow improve his performance in sunbelt suburbs.

[MT Treasurer]

Safe D, even if Sanders is the nominee (yeah, I know this is silly). I was considering Likely D, but I don’t see it.

[NOVA Green]

This district is a bit trippy....

Voted LEAN DEM.

It encompasses some of the highest-income and Whitest precincts of West Houston, which swung dramatically DEM in '16, and even further in '18 TX-SEN. (We are talking about places with average household incomes of $150k + /Yr (or more) in key places with some of the highest turnout levels...

District ends up going West and starts flipping North, and we end up somewhere on the edge of Cy-Fair where the Black and the Brown start to become a solid majority, once we hit Jersey Village, this is on the edge of my old Backyard from the Highways of Metro Houston....

Assuming the Anglo voters in the district continue their major swings towards DEMs, and Middle-Class and Upper-Income Latinos voter DEM, AND Latino and Black turnout continues the way it has been, fairly confident that this will be a LEAN DEM district in 2020....

[Skill and Chance]

Safe D, even if Sanders is the nominee (yeah, I know this is silly). I was considering Likely D, but I don’t see it.

It was only Clinton+1 and Beto +7.  If you think it's completely safe, you must either think Texas is going to be competitive statewide or else Trump is gaining a ton of ground in the Rio Grande Valley? 

[MT Treasurer]

Safe D, even if Sanders is the nominee (yeah, I know this is silly). I was considering Likely D, but I don’t see it.

It was only Clinton+1 and Beto +7.  If you think it's completely safe, you must either think Texas is going to be competitive statewide or else Trump is gaining a ton of ground in the Rio Grande Valley?  

I really don’t think a Romney +21/Clinton +1/O'Rourke +7 district is going to be winnable for Republicans in 2020, not sure why that’s considered such a bold prediction. Fletcher is going to run ahead of Biden, who will almost certainly win this district, so...

I expect TX to vote for Trump by 3 or 4 points against Biden, but not more than that. This race could be somewhat close if Republicans are having a good night, but the last few % points will be impossible for the GOP.

[Libertas Vel Mors]

Safe D, even if Sanders is the nominee (yeah, I know this is silly). I was considering Likely D, but I don’t see it.

This district voted cleanly for 1/2 of the statewide Republicans in 2018, and even counting the House, Beto, etc the average margin was only +0.7% D.

[Frenchrepublican]

Here is a good article concerning this district :
https://www.texastribune.org/2020/01/20/houston-republicans-vie-challenge-us-rep-lizzie-fletcher/

[Frenchrepublican]

The district is clearly trending away from republicans but Hunt is a very strong candidate thus Lean D seems more appropriate than Likely D. But still republicans should not count on TX-7 if they want to win back the House

[One Term Floridian]

Republicans are comfortably winning back the House if they flip this seat, which is really unlikely so I’ll go with Likely D

[Libertas Vel Mors]

Republicans are comfortably winning back the House if they flip this seat, which is really unlikely so I’ll go with Likely D

That's not true. I know uniform swing is an imperfect measure, but this was the 23nd closest D seat in 2018. Factor in NC redistricting and Hurd and districts that previously had strong incumbents like CA-21 and Republicans would be borderline winning the House at around 215-220 if they won this seat.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Lean D. This could well flip but Ds now have the incumbency advantage among other things.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

I’d also like to point out the 2018 average is skewed because of two very popular statewide people who ran for office then, and Trump will not win by their margins. In addition, as a consequence of this district being ancestrally red, expect it to be redder in more local elections, kind of like how Loudoun county Virginia still elected several countywide republicans in 2019.