(Early October 2020) Plausible ceiling for Trump
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  (Early October 2020) Plausible ceiling for Trump		 « previous next »
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Poll
Question: What's the plausible ceiling for Trump at this point?
#1
Trump cannot win		  
#2
Trump wins anywhere from 270-299 electoral votes		  
#3
Trump wins anywhere from 300-320 electoral votes		  
#4
Trump wins anywhere from 320-350 electoral votes		  
#5
Trump wins with over 350 electoral votes		  
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Partisan results
Total Voters: 66

Author Topic: (Early October 2020) Plausible ceiling for Trump  (Read 574 times)
Chips
Those Chips
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« on: October 04, 2020, 09:48:58 PM »
Inspired by the other thread.

Here's mine.



325 electoral votes.
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #1 on: October 04, 2020, 09:51:11 PM »
If you give every state where Trump has a greater than 1% of winning in my model to him, you get a Trump win 350-188. 188 I think is a pretty fair ceiling at this point
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It’s so Joever
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« Reply #2 on: October 04, 2020, 10:05:02 PM »
Quote from: Chips on October 04, 2020, 09:48:58 PM
Inspired by the other thread.

Here's mine.



325 electoral votes.
Agreed for the most part, but I would switch CO and MN. There is a reason Trump just stopped trying here.
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TC 25
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« Reply #3 on: October 04, 2020, 10:28:39 PM »
Best case for Trump

Retains all 306 EV from 2016, plus:
* MN (10); NV (6); NH (4)

326 is the ceiling.
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Orser67
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« Reply #4 on: October 04, 2020, 10:35:21 PM »
« Edited: October 04, 2020, 10:38:26 PM by Orser67 »
Honestly, I think it's his 2016 map, though MI, NH, NV, and maybe MN are kind of on the borderline for me.



Biden 50%
Trump 47%
Other 3%
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Buzz
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« Reply #5 on: October 04, 2020, 10:39:19 PM »
2016 map + NH, MN, and NV
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Beefalow and the Consumer
Beef
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« Reply #6 on: October 04, 2020, 10:48:28 PM »
2016 - MI
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Turbo Flame
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« Reply #7 on: October 05, 2020, 12:59:45 PM »
Trump is now unlikely going to win, but even before he caught covid, this was my ceiling
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Ferguson97
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« Reply #8 on: October 05, 2020, 01:03:33 PM »
2016 minus WI/PA/MI/NE-02
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Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist
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« Reply #9 on: October 05, 2020, 01:07:59 PM »
The only Clinton 2016 state that seems remotely in play is Nevada, and even that seems like a stretch. That would put Trump's ceiling at 312, assuming we consider all Trump 2016 states as still viable for Trump.

Worth noting that I would put the chances of Trump hitting that ceiling at under 5%.
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #10 on: October 05, 2020, 01:29:36 PM »
2016 + MN + NV
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