RI-2 Independent Roger Williams Poll: Fung + 6

[kwabbit]

Odd that Magaziner has not released any internals to counter the narrative that Fung is leading by a healthy margin.

It would be odd for Fung to be leading by so much, especially when he barely won it in 2014 and lost it in 2018. Maybe this district has truly shifted right, which wouldn't be that surprising given its demographics, but I think this will be within a few points either way.

[kwabbit]

Odd that Magaziner has not released any internals to counter the narrative that Fung is leading by a healthy margin.

It would be odd for Fung to be leading by so much, especially when he barely won it in 2014 and lost it in 2018. Maybe this district has truly shifted right, which wouldn't be that surprising given its demographics, but I think this will be within a few points either way.

who is saying that narrative? i don't think anyone is.

250 people sample with a MOE of 6% is... yikes

We've gotten two Fung +6 independent polls and one Fung +15 internal. On each poll, the narrative was that Fung seems to be leading but it's unlikely to last/poll is weird. Certainly, all these results are odd but they are agreeing with each other.

Magaziner hasn't released anything to dispel that notion. Cook has it as a tossup. What are your thoughts?

[kwabbit]

Odd that Magaziner has not released any internals to counter the narrative that Fung is leading by a healthy margin.

It would be odd for Fung to be leading by so much, especially when he barely won it in 2014 and lost it in 2018. Maybe this district has truly shifted right, which wouldn't be that surprising given its demographics, but I think this will be within a few points either way.

who is saying that narrative? i don't think anyone is.

250 people sample with a MOE of 6% is... yikes

We've gotten two Fung +6 independent polls and one Fung +15 internal. On each poll, the narrative was that Fung seems to be leading but it's unlikely to last/poll is weird. Certainly, all these results are odd but they are agreeing with each other.

Magaziner hasn't released anything to dispel that notion. Cook has it as a tossup. What are your thoughts?

Sis i have no idea but I think it'd be best for a poll that's not an internal or one that has a 250 sample

The Suffolk was 423. The internal was Public Opinion Strategies, which uses 400 typically. 254 is unusually low, must be a cheapo sponsor.

[kwabbit]

Man, remember how we celebrated when Rhode Island unexpectedly kept 2 House seats? Are we about to be fools?

RI had a heroic effort to beat the system lol. Had the biggest Census overcount after Census Director/Rhode Island Governor Gina Raimondo really prioritized it. I find it really funny that Rhode Island was projected to lose the seat, massively overperformed expectations, then a year later the Census Bureau says Rhode Island was overcounted.

It would be a beautiful thing to have an RI-2, a MT-2, and a DE-2 at the same time. Unlikely to happen sadly. Interestingly, Delaware has never had a second house district. When they had more than one rep, they used an At Large district as well.

[kwabbit]

Fung could win here. From what I know about him, he is a sensible Republican. Whether he votes that way in Congress is another matter.

He's going to vote for Kevin McCarthy to be Speaker, so that rules out him voting sensibly.

Not necessarily. I could see Fung becoming another Katko or Fitzpatrick. And why would you expect a Republican to vote against their Party Leader as Speaker?

Agree with Calthrina here, this seat may flip. The poll may be flawed, but didn't we have at least another showing a right race? Not saying it will, but it could. It's common tactic though for both sides to scare voters with the (usually unpopular) party leadership of the other side.

May have been a good move by fung after his 2 failed gov bids to finally get a win under his belt. If 2026 is another D-midterm and McKee retires, he may actually win the governorship this time around.

It would take some political wizardry for Fung to hold this seat in 2024. New England loves its moderate Republicans, but maintaining that image is a lot harder as a Congressman than a Governor. If he is able to win, he'd set be up well for the governorship.

[kwabbit]

those golden and fung leads are surely a sign of intense 'polarization' amirite

#pvimatters

Worth noting that Golden underperformed most polling drastically in 2020. Had Golden +9, +25, +28, +18 in the last month. I think ME-2 had the worst polling misses out of any oft-polled jurisdiction in 2020. Missed Trump's margin by 10 pts and Collin's humungous margin in ME-02 as well. Even if Poliquin wins, I doubt any poll will have him up. I think the 538 model has that race nailed pretty well with Golden having a 63% chance and a +2.8 margin.