PA-18 Special Election Prediction

[Oldiesfreak1854]

Saccone by 4 or 5.  Keep in mind that a number of polls in the last week ahead of the GA-6 special election showed Ossoff beating Handel, despite the district being clearly R-leaning.  That was a different story, because that was a district with a large number of #NeverTrump Republicans.  PA-18 is a blue-collar, working-class, unionized district--in other words, a Trump stronghold, and one of the regions where his populist, protectionist message went over well and helped get him elected.  Most polls have shown all or nearly all Trump voters showing no regrets about their votes, so I doubt Lamb's chances are as great as the polls suggest (especially considering that they are still using wildly flawed demographic models based on 2008 and 2012, which were anomalies due to the presence of a candidate of color on the ballot for president.)