2018 Congressional Generic Ballot and House Polls Megathread - the original

[Bidenworth2020]

In other news, the Democratic Generic Ballot advantage on 538 is at 7%. That's about the same as it was in the summer of 2018. I think that we're overestimating the effects of a Republican gerrymander. It reminds me a little of 2010. Many pundits missed the fact that Democrats were historically overextended in Republican territory; I think something similar is brewing this cycle.

Democrats are on track for a massive win this year, I’m currently projecting a net gain of D+30 in the House and D+2 in the Senate.

That is a bit optimistic.

Honestly, I don’t think their going to win the House or Senate, but I’m forced to say that, because if I post my real opinions, the moderators will ban me (they already have me on Post Moderation).

well, then why would you even bother to be on the forum if you can't

[Bidenworth2020]

If CA-45 (my home district) flips, then the House will flip, unfortunately, my gut tells me Walters will squeak it out. However, I plan on voting for Katie Porter in the Jungle Primary, because, if 2018 really is a “Blue Wave”, she’s the strongest candidate to take down Walters.

it seems as though min is, look at the polling

[Bidenworth2020]

YouGov, Feb 25-27, 1290 RV

D 40 (-3)
R 38 (+3)

The good people in Kentucky, NH and Connecticut must have missed the memo.

Special elections are about enthusiasm because turnout is so low, but in a midterm turnout is much higher. Saying that special election results have much of anything to do with the generic ballot (particularly when 22% are undecided) is a bit silly.

Saying that special elections are not related to future midterm results is silly. Other than 1998, there is a direct correlation.

I don't think that's what he said.  He said that special election results aren't correlated with the generic ballot, because in special elections turnout/motivation is a driving factor.  I agree with this.

well, turnout and getting sample sizes right is arguable the most crucial part go the generic ballot. Special elections can help show that

[Bidenworth2020]

As someone pointed out, how is he getting private poll results when he's raised like 85 cents?

The DCCC and national party are not that dumb. They know that this thing has the potential to flip and that Ojeda is a top recruit, so they probably commissioned some private polling and shared it with Ojeda.

they hate ojeda lmao, and of all the people to help, a trump voter is not at the top of the list

[Bidenworth2020]

Change Research CA-39: Kim 15, Huff 12

why do they keep polling chen?

[Bidenworth2020]

oof, generic ballot below 6, not that it matters this early out, but still curious what caused it

[Bidenworth2020]

its about time we all go full limo, as the chart demands...

[Bidenworth2020]

go gray! (sorry mcgrath)

[Bidenworth2020]

Garin Hart Yang Polling for Amy McGrath (D) in KY-06: https://www.scribd.com/document/375773715/KY-06-Garin-Hart-Yang-D-for-Amy-McGrath-Feb-2018

McGrath (D) - 44
Barr (R, i) - 48

Jim Gray (D) - 49
Barr (R, i) - 47

The poll is from late February though.

Wonderful results. I think either one could win this thing.

.
she is doing amazing with only 45% name rec.

[Bidenworth2020]

King Lear prefers male, conservative candidate who don’t pander to minority, women or LGBT issues.

woah... are we really at the point where JDems are conservative?

[Bidenworth2020]

Weren't we promised a poll from Nevada today?

where i do i get it?

[Bidenworth2020]

Ipsos/Reuters, April 26-30, 1977 RV

D 43 (-2)
R 35 (+1)

...and people had the nerve to come at me for talking of a Korea bounce.

thegcb fluctuates, like swing 6 to the dems in the last poll. didnt see any reasoning behind that?

[Bidenworth2020]

DTC, Clinton performed worse than Obama amongst minorities. Doug Jones won 98% of the black vote in Alabama. There is no evidence to suggest that Democrats are losing minorites, besides a mediocre daily tracking poll by Reuters. I expected Atlas to know better.

Doug Jones did not get 98% of the black vote. He got ~95% vs a pedophile. He noticeably got 20-25% less votes in the major black counties than Hillary. Get your facts straight. You cherrypicked the example of the democrat who did the best with black people since 2016, and Doug Jones barely did any better than Hillary among black voters despite facing a racist pedophile.

Democrats will almost surely do worse with minorities in 2016 because most Republicans are not as racial charged as Donald Trump. It's been a consistent trend in the special elections. It's simply extremely hard to win minorities by 60+ points. Isn't that obvious? Why do you think dems did worse in GA-06 than Hillary (it's 40% minority). Because minorities aren't going to be nearly as D if you're not vs Donald Trump, and they're not going to turn out as much.

The huge swings in special elections have been from places that are 80+% white after all, like PA-18.

you are cherrypicking data. sure, jones got 20-25% less, but roy got about 50% less, consistent with the state trend. I am seriously tired of people not recognizing how important minorities our to our coalition, it is sick.

[Bidenworth2020]

DTC, Clinton performed worse than Obama amongst minorities. Doug Jones won 98% of the black vote in Alabama. There is no evidence to suggest that Democrats are losing minorites, besides a mediocre daily tracking poll by Reuters. I expected Atlas to know better.

Doug Jones did not get 98% of the black vote. He got ~95% vs a pedophile. He noticeably got 20-25% less votes in the major black counties than Hillary. Get your facts straight. You cherrypicked the example of the democrat who did the best with black people since 2016, and Doug Jones barely did any better than Hillary among black voters despite facing a racist pedophile.

Democrats will almost surely do worse with minorities in 2016 because most Republicans are not as racial charged as Donald Trump. It's been a consistent trend in the special elections. It's simply extremely hard to win minorities by 60+ points. Isn't that obvious? Why do you think dems did worse in GA-06 than Hillary (it's 40% minority). Because minorities aren't going to be nearly as D if you're not vs Donald Trump, and they're not going to turn out as much.

The huge swings in special elections have been from places that are 80+% white after all, like PA-18.

you are cherrypicking data. sure, jones got 20-25% less, but roy got about 50% less, consistent with the state trend. I am seriously tired of people not recognizing how important minorities our to our coalition, it is sick.

I am not saying democrats should ignore minorities. In fact, my data is actively saying they should try to get more minorities! I am saying that they have consistently been doing worse with minorities in special elections from 2016. Black turnout completely bombed in Milwaukee in the Wisconsin Supreme Court elections, black turnout and margins were worse in Virginia governor, Latino turnout was worse in AZ-08 (the only places Hiral Tipinerni underperformed Hillary in was minorities). It's a very consistent trend, actually. Even as democrats are doing way better in elections across the country, they are doing worse among minorities than Hillary did (although better than Generic D vs Generic R in the 2016 vote).

And the Doug Jones point was to make it clear that even though he was facing a pedophile racist, he barely did any better than Hillary among minorities. You'd expect him to do a lot better, but it goes to show that minorities aren't as happy with the democratic party as they used to be.

Where did you get the idea that I said minorities are not important? Why are you putting words in my mouth? Very disrespectful of you. Please apologize for your petulance.

well, you seen to be recognizing white voters' influence more than black voters. They won us AL-sen. You are not respecting where they have gotten us, is my point, and them voting for us by slightly smaller margins is not changing where they have.

[Bidenworth2020]

DTC, Clinton performed worse than Obama amongst minorities. Doug Jones won 98% of the black vote in Alabama. There is no evidence to suggest that Democrats are losing minorites, besides a mediocre daily tracking poll by Reuters. I expected Atlas to know better.

Doug Jones did not get 98% of the black vote. He got ~95% vs a pedophile. He noticeably got 20-25% less votes in the major black counties than Hillary. Get your facts straight. You cherrypicked the example of the democrat who did the best with black people since 2016, and Doug Jones barely did any better than Hillary among black voters despite facing a racist pedophile.

Democrats will almost surely do worse with minorities in 2016 because most Republicans are not as racial charged as Donald Trump. It's been a consistent trend in the special elections. It's simply extremely hard to win minorities by 60+ points. Isn't that obvious? Why do you think dems did worse in GA-06 than Hillary (it's 40% minority). Because minorities aren't going to be nearly as D if you're not vs Donald Trump, and they're not going to turn out as much.

The huge swings in special elections have been from places that are 80+% white after all, like PA-18.

you are cherrypicking data. sure, jones got 20-25% less, but roy got about 50% less, consistent with the state trend. I am seriously tired of people not recognizing how important minorities our to our coalition, it is sick.

I am not saying democrats should ignore minorities. In fact, my data is actively saying they should try to get more minorities! I am saying that they have consistently been doing worse with minorities in special elections from 2016. Black turnout completely bombed in Milwaukee in the Wisconsin Supreme Court elections, black turnout and margins were worse in Virginia governor, Latino turnout was worse in AZ-08 (the only places Hiral Tipinerni underperformed Hillary in was minorities). It's a very consistent trend, actually. Even as democrats are doing way better in elections across the country, they are doing worse among minorities than Hillary did (although better than Generic D vs Generic R in the 2016 vote).

And the Doug Jones point was to make it clear that even though he was facing a pedophile racist, he barely did any better than Hillary among minorities. You'd expect him to do a lot better, but it goes to show that minorities aren't as happy with the democratic party as they used to be.

Where did you get the idea that I said minorities are not important? Why are you putting words in my mouth? Very disrespectful of you. Please apologize for your petulance.

well, you seen to be recognizing white voters' influence more than black voters. They won us AL-sen. You are not respecting where they have gotten us, is my point, and them voting for us by slightly smaller margins is not changing where they have.

I mean, I'm just saying that white people are going to swing more because Trump race-related politics won't be as prevalent in 2018, and white people are already more GOP. I am not endorsing any strategy. I wish republicans did far more to try to get minority voters.

well, people like cochran and isakson did.

[Bidenworth2020]

https://twitter.com/AndrewHClark/status/998948301117493248

Agree with Sean here. Political environment pretty clearly shifting towards Republicans. No, R+6 is not realistic. But could easily see a tied generic ballot in which the Democrats only pick up a few open seats and don't beat an incumbent.

]
check the crosstab lmao

[Bidenworth2020]

that was probably a glitch limo

[Bidenworth2020]

(PPP) PA-16

Mike Kelly (R) - 48%
Ron DiNicola (D) - 43%

damn

[Bidenworth2020]

It's an internal guys.

still.

[Bidenworth2020]

New CA-49 SurveyUSA poll:

Harkey (R) 24%
Applegate (D) 11,%
Jacobs (D) 11%
Levin (D) 10%
Chavez (R) 8%
Kerr (D) 8%
Maryott (R) 6%

 

survey monkey lmao, well jacobs would lose a ge handily so go applegate (preferably levin)

[Bidenworth2020]

Absolutely ridiculous that my posts got deleted.

Two things happened:

• Dude claims that WA-08 is Lean D based on DEMOCRATIC INTERNAL showing democrats losing by 6-9 points
• Atlas tries to claim Survey USA is Republican biased despite it having an A rating on 538

Let's be very clear -
If a Monmouth poll (rated A+) came out showing Heitkamp leading by 10 points and I decried it as "wonky" and biased I would be rightly pilloried by Atlas for making up reasons to justify my dislike of the poll.
If a NRCC internal was released showing potential Democrats leading by 6-9 points in, say, CA-39 and I declared it "great news for Republicans" and shifted the race to Lean R, I would be correctly criticized again.

to be clear, i thought it was survey monkey first, which has a d- rating on 538

[Bidenworth2020]

If we had a candidate in TX-22 on the same caliber as Lizzie Fletcher, we might’ve had a shot at winning the seat. Oh well, maybe in 2020.

a pro choice neo lib

[Bidenworth2020]

Fletcher doesn't impress me. I don't think she will win. Hillary only won the district by 1.5, whereas Romney won it by 21. It still has some GOP DNA, even if it is shifting super fast. Dems depend on young voters to win districts like this, and young people will be turning out poorly in this midterm, just as they always do in this midterm.

Thankfully for democrats, there are plenty of other districts that are easier to win IMO. There's plenty of ripe targets in NJ/NY/PA, the midwest, and the west coast (although I am skeptical about dems making many gains in Orange County).

As for whether this poll is a good or bad result for dems... it's just a neutral result. About what I expect the final margin to be. I was actually thinking Fletcher would lose by 4 in November. I think Sessions loses by 2 and Hurd vs Jones is a big tossup (Hurd is a very strong incumbent - Sessions/Culberson would lose this matchup).

millenials will be turning out in crazy numbers (for a midterm)

[Bidenworth2020]

tilt r->tossup

[Bidenworth2020]

Not sure if this has been posted here yet, WA-08 poll from GBA Strategies/House Majority Pac:

Rossi- 51%
Schrier- 45%

Rossi- 51%
Hader- 45%

Rossi- 52%
Rittereiser- 43%

https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/4492869-WA-8-Baseline-Survey-Analysis.html

And out there in the wild friends, you can faintly hear the high pitched scream of joy from a prepubescent boy all the way in the Seattle ‘burbs.

I think Greedo was from Clark, which is near Portland

he'll be back....