Slovak Elections and Politics | Fico the Fourth 🇸🇰

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https://twitter.com/CalibreObscura/status/1639032536277094400?s=20

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Today, oligarch Marian Kocner was acquitted in the case of the murder of journalist Jan Kuciak, which sparked mass protests in 2018. The public prosecutor had demanded a lifelong jail sentence.

"However, the District Court in Pezinok convicted co-defendant Alena Zsuzsavá of ordering and planning Kuciak's murder in February 2018. She received a 25-year prison sentence."

"According to the prosecution's indictment, Kočner tasked his associate and failed furniture business owner Alena Zsuzsová with arranging Kuciak's murder and she, in turn, tasked businessman Zoltán Andruskó, who ordered former soldier Miroslav Marček and his cousin Tomáš Szabó to carry out the murder.

Andruskó entered a plea agreement with the prosecution in December 2018 and was sentenced to 15 years — but also named Kočner as the individual who had ordered the murder."

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This election will end in a mess:

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1661643781253341187?s=20

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1661640914266095617?s=20

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1661638650470318082?s=20

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Mentioning “maybe [if Smer wins] it will be more similar to Viktor Orbán-type of foreign policy" is definitely an easy way to grab the Brussels establishment's attention.

https://twitter.com/POLITICOEurope/status/1665030158149988354?s=20

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Confirmation that no one in Slovakia smiles:

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1686351217381736448?s=20

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snippity snip

On the one hand a party can randomly drop two points only to get back up the next week, even in countries with better polling*, on the other I can absolutely imagine that some people are starting to have doubts about whether they want that man back in power. It's nice to see PS ahead (their first polling lead ever!), but the more important thing is that this is the first poll with Republika clearly surpassing Hlas. The seat numbers would look like this:

30 PS
30 Smer
17 REP
16 Hlas
13 SR
12 KDH
12 OĽaNO–KÚ–ZĽ
11 SASKA
9 SNS

Not only does the all-but-official Smer+Hlas+SNS combination not get a majority, they're 21 (!) seats short. They'd need Sme rodina and a fifth partner: either Republika or, as a real longshot, KDH. Despite their statements to the contrary, SNS would be able to stomach the former, but it would be a problem for Hlas: I don't think someone who just proposed a constitutional amendment to guarantee equal rights of men and women will be comfortable governing with ex-Nazis. As for the latter, even though KDH is very socially conservative (like Smer, probably more so) and economically leftish (like Smer, probably more so, at least right now), they never got on well with Fico even though he's been trying to get KDH to join him for as long as he's been in politics.

* although I'd hazard a guess that Slovak polling is not as awful as it used to be, if nothing else because there are now 2-3 polls each week and the figures aren't jumping around as much as a few years ago

Have another Sickos Committee chaos poll:

AKO    5–11 Sep 2023, with change in percentage and seats from their last poll
Smer 19.4% (+0.2%)             32 (nc)
PS: 18.2% (+0.4%)               31 (+1)
Hlas 15.1% (+0.1%)              25 (nc)
SASKA 7.4 (+0.8%)               12 (+1)
OĽaNO–KÚ–ZĽ 7.0 (-0.2%)     12 (nc)
KDH 6.0% (-0.2%)                10 (nc)
SNS 6.0% (+0.1%)                  10 (nc)
SR 5.3%(-0.4%)                      9 (nc)
REP 5.2% (-1.1%)                    9 (-2)


Smer + Hlas + SR + SNS = 76 (A one seat majority always signals a stable government.)
PS + Hlas + SASKA + OLaNO = 79 (Estrella is more knowledgeable than myself, but I suppose this is the most probable scenario for a PS led government based on this poll.)

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Translated using google translate, so there are probably some translation errors:
"For MP Fico (and those who have a similar view of the army)"

"In the past few days, we have all witnessed the "top" event that was shaken by the media, that is, the deteriorating situation with migrants crossing our borders.

On the car ride, I listened to various reactions to this situation on the radio. MP Robert Fico was one of those who contributed to this media discussion. If he remained at the level of criticism - whether justified or not - regarding the procedures or not/activity of the authorities responsible for solving such situations, I probably would not deal with it.

I was interested in the deputy's "proposal" to deploy members of the Armed Forces of the Slovak Republic to support the resolution of this situation. Even that would probably not be a reason for a reaction, since the armed forces more or less standardly support the police force in such and similar situations. Whether it was during the pandemic, refugee crises, including the one caused by the war in Ukraine, or crises caused by natural disasters or technological accidents, for example during the fire in Banská Štiavnica. It is a matter of course for us, we are here to help where it is necessary and where the authorized authorities decide on it.

Although our primary mission is the defense of the Slovak Republic, one of the most frequent activities of the armed forces is precisely the activities to support domestic crisis management. By the way, maybe the public doesn't even know or perceive it anymore, but the Slovak Armed Forces still have several dozen soldiers deployed to support the Border and Foreign Police on the eastern border, and this operation has been going on since March last year.

So, what was it that prompted me to react? It was the statement of MP Fico (which I am only paraphrasing, since I was, of course, not taking notes while driving the car) that "while the government was able to deploy soldiers against the citizens of the Slovak Republic during covid, it is no longer willing to allocate soldiers to protect them". And to that he added the literally dishonorable "argument" that "there are hundreds of soldiers in Poland who are playing soldiers and have nothing to do, so we can send them to guard the borders."

Yes, perhaps the authorized authorities could have handled this migration crisis more agilely and decisively. After all, we already have several experiences with it. The press releases of the President of the Police Force, where he presented the reasons why this is not actually possible, whether for "Fico's" confirmation, Hungary, the European Union, the "toy" fence, the missing policemen..., certainly did not reassure the citizens of the affected regions in any way, nor did they assure that the responsible the authorities have the situation under control. A higher presence of police (and soldiers) at the beginning of the crisis would definitely help more than the press releases. But the fact is that the government, not the president of the police force, decides on the deployment of policemen and soldiers, and that he has repeatedly asked for it.

And on the subject of the "soldiers" in Lešť - a multinational battle group under the leadership of the Army of the Czech Republic is stationed in the Lešť Training Center as part of NATO, to which the armies of Germany, Slovenia and the USA also contribute. This group also includes our Slovak mortar platoon of around 25 soldiers and a support team. So in Poland, our armed forces have only less than 30 soldiers, which would certainly not be enough to support the police force. And our soldiers are definitely not playing "soldiers" there.

The purpose, mission and tasks of the multinational combat group are very well known, and I don't want to believe that the three-time prime minister, three-time chairman of the Security Council of the Slovak Republic and at the same time a long-time member of the National Council would not know about it. If only because the presence of this militant group on our territory was approved by the parliament, of which Mr. Fico is a member.

Mr Fico - maybe in a few weeks you will become a four-time prime minister and prime minister. And as with your three periods of government, you may face crises like this or others that are hard to predict today. But surely those crises will come, and the company under (perhaps) your leadership will have to face them. And just like during your three previous terms in the prime minister's chair, you will also rely on us, the members of the Slovak Armed Forces.

All those whom you, perhaps in a rush of emotions, perhaps in the heat of the pre-election battle, or perhaps lack of concentration, called "soldiers who play soldiers"! And we, despite the fact that we will remember, we will come and help. Despite the fact that the armed forces are understaffed, perhaps even more acutely than the police force, they have a significant material and technological deficit. But we do not lack determination, commitment and pride. Pride in the Slovak Republic, our homeland, the citizens of the Slovak Republic who support us and rely on us, the representation of Slovakia in the world through missions and operations abroad, our commitments in international organizations and many other reasons for our pride.

Members of the Slovak Armed Forces, soldiers and employees will fulfill their tasks and fulfill their mission. Not (only) because it is so in the constitution and laws, but because we know it is our mission. The armed forces have already deployed several hundred soldiers to support the police force in this crisis. Not because of your (defamatory) statements, but because it was decided by the government and because it is necessary for the security of the country and rightly for the reassurance of our citizens.

Mr Fico - in any developed country, political representatives will not allow themselves to dishonor their own armed forces. The political representatives of these countries are rather proud of their armed forces. It is one of the pillars of statehood and one of the pillars of security and support for the country's inhabitants. And their condition, equipment and occupancy reflects the level of support and attention from the politicians responsible for running the armed forces. You should remember this (and not only) in case you really become prime minister for the fourth time. It will help you, it will help us and it will help the citizens of the Slovak Republic.

"Disclaimer" - if anyone thought that I would somehow want to influence the elections, or the preferences of candidates or political parties, I can assure everyone that this is definitely not my goal. I would react the same after the election, during the election or in the middle of the election period. And the same in the event that MP Fico or anyone else would come up with such a slander of the armed forces. The armed forces of the Slovak Republic deserve the protection of their good name, regardless of whether or not it is a pre-election period.

Major General Ing. Ivan PACH
commander of the ground forces of the Armed Forces of the Slovak Republic"

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snippity snip

On the one hand a party can randomly drop two points only to get back up the next week, even in countries with better polling*, on the other I can absolutely imagine that some people are starting to have doubts about whether they want that man back in power. It's nice to see PS ahead (their first polling lead ever!), but the more important thing is that this is the first poll with Republika clearly surpassing Hlas. The seat numbers would look like this:

30 PS
30 Smer
17 REP
16 Hlas
13 SR
12 KDH
12 OĽaNO–KÚ–ZĽ
11 SASKA
9 SNS

Not only does the all-but-official Smer+Hlas+SNS combination not get a majority, they're 21 (!) seats short. They'd need Sme rodina and a fifth partner: either Republika or, as a real longshot, KDH. Despite their statements to the contrary, SNS would be able to stomach the former, but it would be a problem for Hlas: I don't think someone who just proposed a constitutional amendment to guarantee equal rights of men and women will be comfortable governing with ex-Nazis. As for the latter, even though KDH is very socially conservative (like Smer, probably more so) and economically leftish (like Smer, probably more so, at least right now), they never got on well with Fico even though he's been trying to get KDH to join him for as long as he's been in politics.

* although I'd hazard a guess that Slovak polling is not as awful as it used to be, if nothing else because there are now 2-3 polls each week and the figures aren't jumping around as much as a few years ago

And now the first poll with a PS lead (Don't give me too much hope, Slovakia):

NMS, vote percentage with change since their last poll in parenthesis:

PS 19.7 (+1.6)
Smer 19.4 (-2.6)
Hlas 10.6 (-0.9)
OĽaNO–KÚ–ZĽ 9.5 (+3.4) Maybe the car megaphone incident actually worked for Matovič? lol
REP 8.5 (+0.2)
SASKA 5.7 (+1.5)
KDH 5.4 (+0.7)
SNS 5.4 (-1.9)
SR 5.2 (-0.6)
Alliance 3.1 (-0.1)

"The key to moving PS to the top spot is 4 factors:

Progressive Slovakia benefits significantly from undecided voters;

voters of Progressive Slovakia show great motivation to vote for this (up to 98% of PS voters are completely or rather certain of their choice);

the progressives manage to fulfill their electoral potential at 82%, which is the second highest value after the Alliance;

scores significantly among young people (50.1% in the 18-24 category, 32.1% in the 25-34 age category), university-educated voters (31.9%) and voters from cities with over 100,000 inhabitants (36.2% )."

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Voting has started as of four minutes ago at 7am Central European Time. It ends at 10pm CET (4pm Eastern; 1pm Pacific). If only the US had such voting hours...

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We're getting the first trickle of votes from Bratislava region (4% of polling stations reporting). All other regions are reporting from 16% to 43.8%.

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Did we just get a big urban vote dump to get to over 60 percent?

Yep, but more small town than big city.

National (61% counted): Smer 24, Hlas 16, PS 14, OĽANO 10, KDH 7, SNS 6, Szövetség 5, SaS 5, Republika 5, Demokrati 3, Sme rodina 2, ĽSNS 1

Bratislava Region (26% counted): PS 28, Smer 20, Hlas 11, SaS 11, OĽANO 6, KDH 5, SNS 5, Demokrati 4, Republika 4

Now it's:

National - 75.1% counted

Bratislava Region - 36.2% counted

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80% counted. Smer 23.7, Hlas 15.5, PS 15.3, OĽANO 9.5, KDH 7.2, SNS 5.8, SaS 5.5, Republika 5.0, Szövetség 4.9, Demokrati 2.8, Sme rodina 2.3, ĽSNS 0.9, Commies 0.4, Pirates 0.3, Modrí 0.3, MF etc 0.2, everyone else <0.1

So it's gonna be PS second, SNS in, Republika out.

Do you think it's possible this plays out like 2010 where a coalition government is formed, despite Smer winning the plurality?

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For what his words are worth (not much), Pellegrini said this at the Hlas election night press conference:

"...Peter Pellegrini did not directly comment on any potential combination of parties that could form a government coalition with his Hlas party. However, he assumes that Fico, as the winner, will call him first.

However, Pellegrini is still convinced that two ex-prime ministers in the government is not an optimal situation, but nothing prevents the creation of such a coalition. They will consider a possible offer.

Pellegrini emphasized that any decision will not be his decision only, but the decision of the party presidency. He thanked the voters for their trust and, apart from Smer, he also congratulated every party that got into parliament."

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Expat vote result is pretty funny
PS 62
Sas 11
Smer 6
O'LANO 4
SNS 4
KDH 3
Republika 3
Demokrati 2
Hlas 2

The expat vote was enough for PS to nab a 32nd seat. It was taken from KDH, which is now left with 12.

It isn't that big of a deal, but I'll take whatever positive news I can get.

 

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František Mikloško second highest vote getter for KDH, behind the party chairman, has said this (bolding added for emphasis):

"According to Mikloško, a government with Smer would be suicide for the KDH. And that's also because KDH would be replaceable in the coalition. "If Robert Fico and I went to the government, the moment we wanted to resist something, they would tell us: Get out. And he will take SNS, which will be very happy to go," he claims.

On the contrary, according to him, KDH could have a strong position in the government with PS, Hlas and SaS. According to him, Christian Democrats are irreplaceable there, because without them the government could not be formed.

Mikloško thinks that PS should offer Hlas the position of prime minister, and that would change the whole game. "If PS is about Slovakia, as they kept saying, I can imagine that they will make this deal.""

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This comment I saw on a SME article does make a good point. Despite ending up as the kingmaker in this election, Pellegrini is in a bit of a catch 22:

"Pele doesn't know it yet, but it's already his last election period.
1. He will go with Fico, he has no chance Fico will slowly eat him.
2. He will go with PS, so he will be eaten by his own. [within Hlas]
3. He plays it to pat. So Fico will eat him up [in] early elections"

Fico will no doubt try to take back Hlas' voting base, even while being in government with Pellegrini.  

Edit:

This isn't surprising, but Pellegrini said at a post election debate that he'd accept a deal with Smer where he becomes PM and Fico becomes Speaker of the Parliament.

Obviously whether Fico would be willing to offer such a deal is an open question.

At the same debate, the chairman of KDH Milan Majerský backed up František Mikloško's comments I shared earlier that the party will not enter a coalition with Smer.

Not surprising either, but SaS said it would not join a coalition with OLANO as long as Matovič remains in charge.

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How did SNS screw this up so badly lol. Does this make a split in the parliamentary group likely and, in turn, the only possible Smer government (Smer-Hlas-SNS) less likely?

1) As for SNS: when you are led by clowns, expect them to do silly things.

2) I'm not sure, honestly.

Though I wouldn't say the only possible government is Smer-Hlas-SNS. It's certainly by far the mostly likely to form. But, PS-Hlas-KDH-SaS is (in theory) possible. Of course such a coalition would be quite uneasy and unstable. It could fall apart in a short amount of time, like the Matovic government did after just one year.

Smer-Hlas-KDH is also possible. Because despite what KDH leaders have said in the aftermath of the election about the party not joining a coalition with Smer, I don't trust them at their word.

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A cartoon depicting how liberals feel Pellegrini is making his decision on who to form a government with:

https://dennikn.sk/3603366/newsfilter-teraz-uvidime-ako-velmi-je-pellegrini-slobodny/?ref=tit1

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Why I love Slovak politics: today, outgoing technocratic PM Ľudovít Ódor brought a "5,0%" made out of legos to a press conference representing how a new government can build their own package to cut the "percentage of GDP [that] needs to be saved in the next three years to stop the growth of debt". At the press conference he announced a hundred consolidation measures worth over €9 Billion, including raising the Value Added Tax from 20% to 22%. (No, it's not a coincidence these were announced after the elections.)

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The madlad did it:

"Pellegrini asked Fico for the post of prime minister"

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The madlad did it:

"Pellegrini asked Fico for the post of prime minister"

"PS offered Pellegrini the post of prime minister."

Well, I suppose it was worth a shot on Pelle's part lol:

"Robert Fico, resolutely refused to give the leader of Hlas, Peter Pellegrini, the post of prime minister

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Pelle also said he decided to not work with PS and KDH because "cooperating with liberals and conservatives would be full of conflicts". So he decided to cooperate with the mobsters and neo-nazis instead?

Edit: I don't think Pellegrini would be satisfied with being Speaker of the Parliament again. He already previously had that position before becoming Prime Minister. If a Smer-Hlas-SNS government is formed, I'd think it means Pellegrini is running for President in 2024 with Smer backing.

Edit 2.0: Lol. "Pele's statement from 2020 when he was "leaving" the direction [Smer]:
"I can't imagine a joint future in tandem with Roberto Fico. They are two worlds that cannot come together. They are two worlds - the world of the past and the world of the future,"
Pele's statement from June 2022: "I can't imagine participating in a government in which he (Fico) would also sit""

https://twitter.com/POLITICOEurope/status/1711788724667748807?s=20

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This means that Smer will be kicked out from the European Socialists, right?

There it is: The Party of European Socialists has suspended Smer and Hlas membership.

"Peter Pellegrini responded to this threat by saying that, unlike Smer, they have an advantage, since the Socialists cannot fire them, since they are not yet full members. Fico said in the video that he will not change his rhetoric towards Ukraine, even if it costs him membership."

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An anonymous (of course) EU official said this about Fico shaking hands with Putin in a Politico EU article:

"“Slovakia is such a piddly country that this will barely make a difference,” an EU official said. “Slovakia barely has any leverage. They need their cohesion funds and the EU’s goodwill, they can’t really afford to be a troublemaker in Brussels. What is much more relevant for Orbán is the loss of Poland as an ally on rule of law issues, they had real clout because of their size.”"

While I agree electing a pro-EU government in Poland is a bigger deal than "losing" Slovakia to an  illiberal populist wannabe Orban, sh**ing on Slovakia is exactly the kind of elitist dismissive attitude anti-EU parties and movements capitalize on.

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The PNL Minister of Finance has been throwing criticism at the Government over the pension bill that the Chamber of Deputies just passed. This would add quite a bit of spending over the medium term (0.6% of GDP 2023, 1.6-1.8% thereafter) so will bring the deficit to an insane 5.9% in 2024 and ~6.8% in 2025, and that's after the recent tax hikes and the fact that revenues this year have massively disappointed (6.3% deficit 2023.)

The EU has Romania in the Excessive Deficit Procedure (deficit must remain < 3.0%) so the scale of this deterioration is quite bad, given there's no way we get the coalition raising taxes ahead of the elections, so that 2024 number is baked in and the 2025 figure is the problem of the next Government (I don't even think PSD/PNL holds)

The pension bill is evidently an electoral handout, designed in order to goad retirees into supporting Ciolacu's presidential candidacy.

Thanks Ciolacu for giving Pellegrini an idea The government announced that in addition to increasing the monthly pension and increasing the special Christmas pension bonus, there will be an extra Christmas gift, a €300 one-time payment for every pensioner. Pelle's little campaign handout will cost some €440 million, about half a percent of GDP on top of the yawning 5.7% deficit.

Talking about the presidential election, here's a new poll:
Peter Pellegrini (Hlas) 34.9%
Ivan Korčok (SaS) 26.5%
Štefan Harabin (Vlasť) 7.7%
Ján Kubiš (ind. ex-Smer) 5.1%
Robert Mistrík (ind. ex-SaS) 3.1%
Miriam Lexmann (KDH) 1.7%
None of the above/wouldn't vote/don't know 21.0%

Note that Pellegrini hasn't officially declared he's running (but ofc he'll run), Mistrík says he has the 15,000 signatures he needs to run but he's still undecided, Harabin says he's running but doesn't have the signatures yet, Lexmann hasn't announced yet whether she's running and according to KDH's caucus chairwoman they might support Korčok if she doesn't run.

Something I just noticed, after looking at Korčok's wikipedia page, is that both he and Pellegrini are from Banská Bystrica. It's not all that out of the box, with it being the 6th largest city in the Slovakia. It would still be interesting if both candidates that make the second round in the Presidential election were from the same town with a population of around 75k.