Congressional Special Elections Results Thread (OLD, PLEASE UNSTICKY)

[Vosem]

Not to rain on all the Democrats' hopes here, but didn't Trump get massacred in the early vote in Florida, North Carolina, st al, only to slaughter Clinton even worse in Election Day voting?

He lost the early vote in both, yes, but I wouldn't say he got massacred. The early vote was about 6-7% more D friendly than the eventual results, IIRC.

If that's reflected here, assuming what we have is representative of all the early vote, we should see a 0-1% Thompson win

Could be a barn-burner, folks.

[McGovernForPrez]

If this seat is actually even competitive, then Democrats look poised to win control of the House and maybe even (somehow, despite the map) the Senate in the 2018 midterms.

There is a path to winning the senate. It's called forcing out McCaskill for Kander in Missouri, and winning a three-way (McMullin as Indy) in Utah.

Possibly upset Beto in TX? If Thompson wins this I wouldn't rule it out of the realms of possibility.

[Chief Justice Keef]

In hindsight, now that Thompson might actually have a real shot at this...

[Adam Griffin]

Stop getting me all excited, people. Now I have to commit to sitting at my computer for the next few hours pressing refresh instead of, you know, eating and doing taxes.

Now I'm sitting here getting all liquored up instead of doing my at-dusk exercising.

Could there be a more fitting drink for me to have?

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

If this seat is actually even competitive, then Democrats look poised to win control of the House and maybe even (somehow, despite the map) the Senate in the 2018 midterms.

There is a path to winning the senate. It's called forcing out McCaskill for Kander in Missouri, and winning a three-way (McMullin as Indy) in Utah.

Possibly upset Beto in TX? If Thompson wins this I wouldn't rule it out of the realms of possibility.

I'll believe it when I see it with TX after Hillary did worse than Obama '08 in terms of % of the vote despite maxing out the urban areas.

[MAINEiac4434]

If this seat is actually even competitive, then Democrats look poised to win control of the House and maybe even (somehow, despite the map) the Senate in the 2018 midterms.

There is a path to winning the senate. It's called forcing out McCaskill for Kander in Missouri, and winning a three-way (McMullin as Indy) in Utah.

Possibly upset Beto in TX? If Thompson wins this I wouldn't rule it out of the realms of possibility.

I mean, if Kansas-04 is swinging this hard against Trump, and assuming Trump doesn't right the ship and up his approvals, anything is possible.

[Confused Democrat]

I bet the DCCC regrets not investing heavily in this race.

[Badger]

Not to rain on all the Democrats' hopes here, but didn't Trump get massacred in the early vote in Florida, North Carolina, st al, only to slaughter Clinton even worse in Election Day voting?

He lost the early vote in both, yes, but I wouldn't say he got massacred. The early vote was about 6-7% more D friendly than the eventual results, IIRC.

Really? What was FL? I recall the EV there being ugly for Trump.

 From that observation, I'm starting to suspect Estes is toast.

[Devout Centrist]

It'll be close, perhaps my bold prediction was not as bold as I thought.

[heatcharger]

I bet the DCCC regrets not investing heavily in this race.

Thompson localized the race at made it more of a referendum on Brownback than on Trump or Congressional Republicans. I don't think ties to the national party would've helped all that much.

[ApatheticAustrian]

the EV in fl wasn't so bad for trump.

he got beaten in the last week, as usual, but not even close to obama territory and needed much too long.

[Suburbia]

It will be close, but Estes will win. But he is not off the hook in 2018.

[McGovernForPrez]

If this seat is actually even competitive, then Democrats look poised to win control of the House and maybe even (somehow, despite the map) the Senate in the 2018 midterms.

There is a path to winning the senate. It's called forcing out McCaskill for Kander in Missouri, and winning a three-way (McMullin as Indy) in Utah.

Possibly upset Beto in TX? If Thompson wins this I wouldn't rule it out of the realms of possibility.

I'll believe it when I see it with TX after Hillary did worse than Obama '08 in terms of % of the vote despite maxing out the urban areas.

Well any Beto win would come from a suburban defection. Also it's not fair to compare Obama's +6 or +7 win to Hillary's +2 win and say she did worse. Relative to national trends she did much better than Barry. Still I'd still say TX is at likely to lean R even of Thompson wins.

[Adam Griffin]

Not to rain on all the Democrats' hopes here, but didn't Trump get massacred in the early vote in Florida, North Carolina, st al, only to slaughter Clinton even worse in Election Day voting?

He lost the early vote in both, yes, but I wouldn't say he got massacred. The early vote was about 6-7% more D friendly than the eventual results, IIRC.

Really? What was FL? I recall the EV there being ugly for Trump.

 From that observation, I'm starting to suspect Estes is toast.

If I recall correctly, Dems only had a net EV advantage of a point or two - but people read into this as being good considering the net Dem advantage they had in 2012 was less (or non-existent?) in early voting and Obama still eeked out a win + believing the losses in D registration over the past four years were merely Romney '12 voters finally flipping their registrations.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

I still think Estes will squeak this out, but this is simply embarrassing!

[Holmes]

Ryan Struyk @ryanstruyk  
Early returns in Sedgwick County show strongest Trump precincts coming in weaker for Estes. Strongest Clinton stronger for Thompson. #KS04

Ryan Struyk‏ @ryanstruyk
GO - Trump 68%, Estes 56%
DB42 - Trump 67%, Estes 57%
410 - Trump 67%, Estes 49%
GY01 - Trump 70%, Estes 53%
531 - Trump 67%, Estes 53%

Ryan Struyk @ryanstruyk
Some core Dem precincts in Wichita, still very early:
116 - Clinton 89%, Thomp 97%
117 - Clinton 90%, Thomp 98%
118 - Clinton 82%, Thomp 94%

Some precincts voting nearly 100% Thompson. lol

[bilaps]

This is going so sloooow

[Xing]

Not to rain on all the Democrats' hopes here, but didn't Trump get massacred in the early vote in Florida, North Carolina, st al, only to slaughter Clinton even worse in Election Day voting?

He lost the early vote in both, yes, but I wouldn't say he got massacred. The early vote was about 6-7% more D friendly than the eventual results, IIRC.

Really? What was FL? I recall the EV there being ugly for Trump.

 From that observation, I'm starting to suspect Estes is toast.

I believe Clinton started out about 6% ahead of Trump in FL, so again, that would have made the EV roughly 7% more Democratic than the eventual results. I have no idea if that will be the case with this race, though. I don't want to jump to conclusions too quickly.

[MAINEiac4434]

From what I gather....turnout is abysmal without Trump on the ballot

Estes is basically seen as Brownback

I can understand that...Trump brought a lot of nonvoters out of the woodwork. But without Trump on the ballot, they don't get out. A bit like nonvoting Obama supporters.

[henster]

What if Ds end up winning KS-04 and MT-AL but lose GA-06 what message would that send to the DCCC?

[Devout Centrist]

I bet the DCCC regrets not investing heavily in this race.

i don't think the old, "Hey kids, it's Nancy from SF!" would've helped that much.

[Gass3268]

I bet the DCCC regrets not investing heavily in this race.

They staying out helped the expectations game.

[Classic Conservative]

Are Kansas primaries open or closed? The reason I'm asking is that if they are closed, that could explain why Thompson did so good with registered R's in the early vote.

[GeorgiaModerate]

What if Ds end up winning KS-04 and MT-AL but lose GA-06 what message would that send to the DCCC?

"Special elections are special."

[InheritTheWind]

What if Ds end up winning KS-04 and MT-AL but lose GA-06 what message would that send to the DCCC?

Rural voters are far more elastic than their suburban counterparts?