Nate Silver on 12/10: 20% chance of a brokered convention

[Likely Voter]

The thing that keeps brokered conventions from happening is that usually the race comes down to two candidates winning delegates following Super Tuesday, with one of them eventually winning a majority. This year there is a reasonable chance that there will be 3: Trump, Cruz and [Insert Mainstream consolidator]. Even if one of the three is dominant, the other two can still get a combined 51% (after factoring in unpledged).

I would say the chances are ~25%.

[Likely Voter]

It won't happen exact as a remote chance, because a deal will most probably be cut before the convention if nobody has a majority. Granted it might take two ballots to implement the deal, since delegates might be legally committed to vote a certain way on the first ballot.

I think most people would lump the "cut a deal before the convention" scenario in with a brokered convention. When I say ~25%, I am talking about no candidate winning a majority of delegates in the primaries.

[Likely Voter]

Again Silver is using data, he believes in the 'party decides' theory that the best early indicators are endorsements (from currently elected politicians) and Trump has zero. This cycle will test the 'party decides' theory. Silver is also right that early polling, especially early national polling has not been a good indicator. However we are now transitioning into the time when it isn't early polling and Trump still has a lead in NH and is in second in IA, so history is slowly but surely moving in Trump's direction to at least be a serious contender.