USA 2020 Census Results Thread (Release: Today, 26 April)

[Storebought]

The July 2020 estimate was off by a whopping 1.75 million for the Northeastern census region. That's a 3% difference, that suggests a systematic error in the estimation.

[jimrtex]

The Census Bureau has agreed to release the PL 94-171 redistricting data to Ohio by August 16.

[Roronoa D. Law]

While not official. If anybody is interested the 2020 estimates for incorporated places are out.

https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/popest/technical-documentation/research/evaluation-estimates.html

[jimrtex]

While not official. If anybody is interested the 2020 estimates for incorporated places are out.

https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/popest/technical-documentation/research/evaluation-estimates.html

Texas now has 41 cities over 100K including 12 new performers:

Round Rock
Odessa
Pearland
Richardson
College Station
Sugar Land
Lewisville
Allen
League City
Tyler
Edinburg
San Angelo

[Frodo]

Given the makeup of the Supreme Court, this could be the last census in which imputation can be used:

Conservatives aim at Census' method for uncounted households

When U.S. Census Bureau workers couldn't find out any information about some households after repeatedly mailing them questionnaire reminders and sending census takers to knock on their doors, the statisticians turned to an obscure, last-resort statistical technique known as “imputation.”

Less than 1% of households were counted using the technique during the 2020 census. But some conservative political groups are questioning it, potentially laying a foundation for legal challenges to the data that will ultimately be used for drawing congressional and legislative districts.

Imputation involves using information about neighbors with similar characteristics to fill in head counts or demographic characteristics for households lacking data. For instance, a rowhouse with no information may be counted as having two people if a neighboring rowhouse is occupied by two people. The technique tends to be utilized in hard-to-count places, often with racial and ethnic minorities, where people haven’t answered the census questionnaire and could otherwise go uncounted.

“It makes the overall dataset — or census in this case — more accurate than leaving the gaps blank," Pat Cantwell, a bureau official, said in a blog post earlier this year. “By using imputation, we fill in what we don’t know, using information we do know."

The focus for conservatives is on how this technique was applied to college dorms, nursing homes, prisons and other places where people live in groups. These residents were particularly difficult to count during the 2020 census because the pandemic sent college students fleeing campuses and put nursing homes in lockdown. In response, the Census Bureau unexpectedly decided to use the technique for group housing, where about 3% of the U.S. population lives.

[Non Swing Voter]

Given the makeup of the Supreme Court, this could be the last census in which imputation can be used:

Conservatives aim at Census' method for uncounted households

When U.S. Census Bureau workers couldn't find out any information about some households after repeatedly mailing them questionnaire reminders and sending census takers to knock on their doors, the statisticians turned to an obscure, last-resort statistical technique known as “imputation.”

Less than 1% of households were counted using the technique during the 2020 census. But some conservative political groups are questioning it, potentially laying a foundation for legal challenges to the data that will ultimately be used for drawing congressional and legislative districts.

Imputation involves using information about neighbors with similar characteristics to fill in head counts or demographic characteristics for households lacking data. For instance, a rowhouse with no information may be counted as having two people if a neighboring rowhouse is occupied by two people. The technique tends to be utilized in hard-to-count places, often with racial and ethnic minorities, where people haven’t answered the census questionnaire and could otherwise go uncounted.

“It makes the overall dataset — or census in this case — more accurate than leaving the gaps blank," Pat Cantwell, a bureau official, said in a blog post earlier this year. “By using imputation, we fill in what we don’t know, using information we do know."

The focus for conservatives is on how this technique was applied to college dorms, nursing homes, prisons and other places where people live in groups. These residents were particularly difficult to count during the 2020 census because the pandemic sent college students fleeing campuses and put nursing homes in lockdown. In response, the Census Bureau unexpectedly decided to use the technique for group housing, where about 3% of the U.S. population lives.

I'm not a conservative but this seems like a terrible way to go about it.  Just haphazardly counting dorms or row houses when the person might have moved or responded to the census at their parents place, etc., seems very very wrong.

[Beet]

Given the makeup of the Supreme Court, this could be the last census in which imputation can be used:

Conservatives aim at Census' method for uncounted households

When U.S. Census Bureau workers couldn't find out any information about some households after repeatedly mailing them questionnaire reminders and sending census takers to knock on their doors, the statisticians turned to an obscure, last-resort statistical technique known as “imputation.”

Less than 1% of households were counted using the technique during the 2020 census. But some conservative political groups are questioning it, potentially laying a foundation for legal challenges to the data that will ultimately be used for drawing congressional and legislative districts.

Imputation involves using information about neighbors with similar characteristics to fill in head counts or demographic characteristics for households lacking data. For instance, a rowhouse with no information may be counted as having two people if a neighboring rowhouse is occupied by two people. The technique tends to be utilized in hard-to-count places, often with racial and ethnic minorities, where people haven’t answered the census questionnaire and could otherwise go uncounted.

“It makes the overall dataset — or census in this case — more accurate than leaving the gaps blank," Pat Cantwell, a bureau official, said in a blog post earlier this year. “By using imputation, we fill in what we don’t know, using information we do know."

The focus for conservatives is on how this technique was applied to college dorms, nursing homes, prisons and other places where people live in groups. These residents were particularly difficult to count during the 2020 census because the pandemic sent college students fleeing campuses and put nursing homes in lockdown. In response, the Census Bureau unexpectedly decided to use the technique for group housing, where about 3% of the U.S. population lives.

I'm not a conservative but this seems like a terrible way to go about it.  Just haphazardly counting dorms or row houses when the person might have moved or responded to the census at their parents place, etc., seems very very wrong.

Well it's not haphazard. There's a defined methodology to it. The only question should be whether it makes the count more or less accurate. If it makes the count more accurate, then it is 100% completely justified and any attempt to undo it is a naked power grab.

[jimrtex]

Given the makeup of the Supreme Court, this could be the last census in which imputation can be used:

Conservatives aim at Census' method for uncounted households

When U.S. Census Bureau workers couldn't find out any information about some households after repeatedly mailing them questionnaire reminders and sending census takers to knock on their doors, the statisticians turned to an obscure, last-resort statistical technique known as “imputation.”

Less than 1% of households were counted using the technique during the 2020 census. But some conservative political groups are questioning it, potentially laying a foundation for legal challenges to the data that will ultimately be used for drawing congressional and legislative districts.

Imputation involves using information about neighbors with similar characteristics to fill in head counts or demographic characteristics for households lacking data. For instance, a rowhouse with no information may be counted as having two people if a neighboring rowhouse is occupied by two people. The technique tends to be utilized in hard-to-count places, often with racial and ethnic minorities, where people haven’t answered the census questionnaire and could otherwise go uncounted.

“It makes the overall dataset — or census in this case — more accurate than leaving the gaps blank," Pat Cantwell, a bureau official, said in a blog post earlier this year. “By using imputation, we fill in what we don’t know, using information we do know."

The focus for conservatives is on how this technique was applied to college dorms, nursing homes, prisons and other places where people live in groups. These residents were particularly difficult to count during the 2020 census because the pandemic sent college students fleeing campuses and put nursing homes in lockdown. In response, the Census Bureau unexpectedly decided to use the technique for group housing, where about 3% of the U.S. population lives.

There is likely a systemic bias in which housing units must be (or are) imputed. Apartments and other more transient housing are more likely to not return a form, or unable to be contacted, or locate a proxy who knows who lived in that apartment five months ago.

In areas of single family homes, it is more likely that the occupants were still there during NRFU or that neighbors would be more able to know the number of former occupants.

Count imputation should have smaller errors, though there may still be systemic biases. Households with a single person may be more likely to require imputation than those with families - or it could be the other way around. If the Census Bureau knew why they were imputing for a particular housing unit, they wouldn't need to impute.

But assigning a count of 2 or 3 would likely be more likely to be accurate than assigning a zero.

Imputing for group quarters seems much more dicey.

The comment in the story about deduplicating did not make sense. The Census Bureau does not impute actual persons.

[cinyc]

The comment in the story about deduplicating did not make sense. The Census Bureau does not impute actual persons.

Isn't that the point, though - because Census doesn't impute actual persons, they can't be deduplicated. Thus, some people can be counted in 2 places or states.

[jimrtex]

The comment in the story about deduplicating did not make sense. The Census Bureau does not impute actual persons.

Isn't that the point, though - because Census doesn't impute actual persons, they can't be deduplicated. Thus, some people can be counted in 2 places or states.

I was reacting to the following quote:

Conservatives aim at Census' method for uncounted households

The initial batch of Fair Lines documents included a slideshow that indicated the Census used the statistical technique to get a head count in 43,000 separate group housing facilities. That included 5,500 college housing units, which Torchinsky said were a special concern given the number of students who relocated last year. They could have been double-counted at their parents' homes and in the dorms through imputation, he said, though the Census Bureau says it eliminates duplicate responses during the numbers-crunching phase of the 2020 census.

I interpreted "though the Census Bureau says it eliminates duplicate responses during the numbers-crunching phase of the 2020 census" as being the reporters words. While "they could have been double-counted at their parents' homes and in the dorms through imputation" was a paraphrase of Torchinsky.

[Real Texan Politics]

For anyone who wants to see the full list of cities with over 100k without having to download an excel chart:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_States_cities_by_population

[jimrtex]

For anyone who wants to see the full list of cities with over 100k without having to download an excel chart:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_States_cities_by_population

Half of the 317 are in five states: CA, TX, FL, CO, and AZ.

Five have none: DE, ME, VT, WV, and WY.

DE had one, but probably won't ever again. WY may have one in the distant future.

[Real Texan Politics]

Something I realized is that the July 1, 2020 estimate for Austin's population puts it at 995,484.

Considering the city's rapid growth, and considering it's been almost a year since that estimate, I think it's safe to say that Austin has now surpassed 1 million people in its city limits, making its northern Texas neighbor Fort Worth the largest city in the United States to have less than 1 million people (which it should surpass by 2025). That now means that 11 cities in the USA now have 1 million people or more.

By the 2030 census, besides Austin and Fort Worth, I would expect the following cities to surpass 1 million people:

Jacksonville, Florida
Columbus, Ohio
Charlotte, North Carolina

This would make 15 cities with a population of 1 million or more, and based on growth trends, Seattle would likely become the largest city in the country to have less than 1 million people, as it (along with possibly Denver as well) would likely surpass Indianapolis and San Francisco in population.

Also to add-on, Texas is now the state with the most cities with 1 million people or greater, with 4 cities (Houston, San Antonio, Dallas, Austin) compared to California with only 3 (Los Angeles, San Diego, San Jose).

[Crumpets]

Random piece of data I just noticed: the Washington-Baltimore-Arlington Combined Statistical Area has overtaken Chicago-Naperville as the 3rd largest CSA in the US, with San Jose-San Francisco-Oakland set to soon follow. In a couple years, Chicago may be down to the fifth largest CSA after being third for decades.

[beesley]

Something I realized is that the July 1, 2020 estimate for Austin's population puts it at 995,484.

Considering the city's rapid growth, and considering it's been almost a year since that estimate, I think it's safe to say that Austin has now surpassed 1 million people in its city limits, making its northern Texas neighbor Fort Worth the largest city in the United States to have less than 1 million people (which it should surpass by 2025). That now means that 11 cities in the USA now have 1 million people or more.

By the 2030 census, besides Austin and Fort Worth, I would expect the following cities to surpass 1 million people:

Jacksonville, Florida
Columbus, Ohio
Charlotte, North Carolina

This would make 15 cities with a population of 1 million or more, and based on growth trends, Seattle would likely become the largest city in the country to have less than 1 million people, as it (along with possibly Denver as well) would likely surpass Indianapolis and San Francisco in population.

Also to add-on, Texas is now the state with the most cities with 1 million people or greater, with 4 cities (Houston, San Antonio, Dallas, Austin) compared to California with only 3 (Los Angeles, San Diego, San Jose).

Is Columbus' growth that rapid? I would've thought most of the growth would be outside the city limits.

[Real Texan Politics]

Something I realized is that the July 1, 2020 estimate for Austin's population puts it at 995,484.

Considering the city's rapid growth, and considering it's been almost a year since that estimate, I think it's safe to say that Austin has now surpassed 1 million people in its city limits, making its northern Texas neighbor Fort Worth the largest city in the United States to have less than 1 million people (which it should surpass by 2025). That now means that 11 cities in the USA now have 1 million people or more.

By the 2030 census, besides Austin and Fort Worth, I would expect the following cities to surpass 1 million people:

Jacksonville, Florida
Columbus, Ohio
Charlotte, North Carolina

This would make 15 cities with a population of 1 million or more, and based on growth trends, Seattle would likely become the largest city in the country to have less than 1 million people, as it (along with possibly Denver as well) would likely surpass Indianapolis and San Francisco in population.

Also to add-on, Texas is now the state with the most cities with 1 million people or greater, with 4 cities (Houston, San Antonio, Dallas, Austin) compared to California with only 3 (Los Angeles, San Diego, San Jose).

Is Columbus' growth that rapid? I would've thought most of the growth would be outside the city limits.

It grew by 14.84%, from 787,033 in 2010 to 903,852 in 2020.

[Real Texan Politics]

Random piece of data I just noticed: the Washington-Baltimore-Arlington Combined Statistical Area has overtaken Chicago-Naperville as the 3rd largest CSA in the US, with San Jose-San Francisco-Oakland set to soon follow. In a couple years, Chicago may be down to the fifth largest CSA after being third for decades.

Those darn tech jobs...

Also Dallas-Fort Worth might surpass Chicago's CSA in about 10 years time as well, likely for the same reason as San Jose-San Francisco's growth.

[jimrtex]

Something I realized is that the July 1, 2020 estimate for Austin's population puts it at 995,484.

Considering the city's rapid growth, and considering it's been almost a year since that estimate, I think it's safe to say that Austin has now surpassed 1 million people in its city limits, making its northern Texas neighbor Fort Worth the largest city in the United States to have less than 1 million people (which it should surpass by 2025). That now means that 11 cities in the USA now have 1 million people or more.

By the 2030 census, besides Austin and Fort Worth, I would expect the following cities to surpass 1 million people:

Jacksonville, Florida
Columbus, Ohio
Charlotte, North Carolina

This would make 15 cities with a population of 1 million or more, and based on growth trends, Seattle would likely become the largest city in the country to have less than 1 million people, as it (along with possibly Denver as well) would likely surpass Indianapolis and San Francisco in population.

Also to add-on, Texas is now the state with the most cities with 1 million people or greater, with 4 cities (Houston, San Antonio, Dallas, Austin) compared to California with only 3 (Los Angeles, San Diego, San Jose).

Is Columbus' growth that rapid? I would've thought most of the growth would be outside the city limits.

Columbus has had a very aggressive annexation policy. In Ohio, cities can annex with agreement of landowners. Columbus makes deals with landowners to provide water and sewage in exchange for being annexed. If you are developing a tract of land for a shopping center, or an office park, or warehouses, or apartments or single-family residences, you are going to need reliable infrastructure - water, sewage, and roads. The developer will be expected to put in the sewer and water lines and internal roads, but they need to connect to trunk lines. The roads will need to connect to major arterials, so the developer might also pay for stop lights and intersection expansion. But all of this will benefit the developer since people will be able to get to the shopping center or office park or out of the residence. So Columbus has lots of develop-able land.

Ohio also has adopted restrictions on creation of new cities. It used to be easier to incorporate residential areas which would incorporate and block expansion of Cleveland and Cincinnati. There are now minimum population requirements at least around major cities. While there has been some effort to contain Columbus it hasn't been wholly successful.

This shows the Columbus city limits. Incorporated cities, including Columbus are shown with a gray tint. Be sure to zoom in.

Columbus zoning map

[beesley]

Something I realized is that the July 1, 2020 estimate for Austin's population puts it at 995,484.

Considering the city's rapid growth, and considering it's been almost a year since that estimate, I think it's safe to say that Austin has now surpassed 1 million people in its city limits, making its northern Texas neighbor Fort Worth the largest city in the United States to have less than 1 million people (which it should surpass by 2025). That now means that 11 cities in the USA now have 1 million people or more.

By the 2030 census, besides Austin and Fort Worth, I would expect the following cities to surpass 1 million people:

Jacksonville, Florida
Columbus, Ohio
Charlotte, North Carolina

This would make 15 cities with a population of 1 million or more, and based on growth trends, Seattle would likely become the largest city in the country to have less than 1 million people, as it (along with possibly Denver as well) would likely surpass Indianapolis and San Francisco in population.

Also to add-on, Texas is now the state with the most cities with 1 million people or greater, with 4 cities (Houston, San Antonio, Dallas, Austin) compared to California with only 3 (Los Angeles, San Diego, San Jose).

Is Columbus' growth that rapid? I would've thought most of the growth would be outside the city limits.

Columbus has had a very aggressive annexation policy. In Ohio, cities can annex with agreement of landowners. Columbus makes deals with landowners to provide water and sewage in exchange for being annexed. If you are developing a tract of land for a shopping center, or an office park, or warehouses, or apartments or single-family residences, you are going to need reliable infrastructure - water, sewage, and roads. The developer will be expected to put in the sewer and water lines and internal roads, but they need to connect to trunk lines. The roads will need to connect to major arterials, so the developer might also pay for stop lights and intersection expansion. But all of this will benefit the developer since people will be able to get to the shopping center or office park or out of the residence. So Columbus has lots of develop-able land.

Ohio also has adopted restrictions on creation of new cities. It used to be easier to incorporate residential areas which would incorporate and block expansion of Cleveland and Cincinnati. There are now minimum population requirements at least around major cities. While there has been some effort to contain Columbus it hasn't been wholly successful.

This shows the Columbus city limits. Incorporated cities, including Columbus are shown with a gray tint. Be sure to zoom in.

Columbus zoning map

Thanks for the detailed response.

[bagelman]

Something I realized is that the July 1, 2020 estimate for Austin's population puts it at 995,484.

Considering the city's rapid growth, and considering it's been almost a year since that estimate, I think it's safe to say that Austin has now surpassed 1 million people in its city limits, making its northern Texas neighbor Fort Worth the largest city in the United States to have less than 1 million people (which it should surpass by 2025). That now means that 11 cities in the USA now have 1 million people or more.

By the 2030 census, besides Austin and Fort Worth, I would expect the following cities to surpass 1 million people:

Jacksonville, Florida
Columbus, Ohio
Charlotte, North Carolina

This would make 15 cities with a population of 1 million or more, and based on growth trends, Seattle would likely become the largest city in the country to have less than 1 million people, as it (along with possibly Denver as well) would likely surpass Indianapolis and San Francisco in population.

Also to add-on, Texas is now the state with the most cities with 1 million people or greater, with 4 cities (Houston, San Antonio, Dallas, Austin) compared to California with only 3 (Los Angeles, San Diego, San Jose).

Is Columbus' growth that rapid? I would've thought most of the growth would be outside the city limits.

Columbus has had a very aggressive annexation policy. In Ohio, cities can annex with agreement of landowners. Columbus makes deals with landowners to provide water and sewage in exchange for being annexed. If you are developing a tract of land for a shopping center, or an office park, or warehouses, or apartments or single-family residences, you are going to need reliable infrastructure - water, sewage, and roads. The developer will be expected to put in the sewer and water lines and internal roads, but they need to connect to trunk lines. The roads will need to connect to major arterials, so the developer might also pay for stop lights and intersection expansion. But all of this will benefit the developer since people will be able to get to the shopping center or office park or out of the residence. So Columbus has lots of develop-able land.

Ohio also has adopted restrictions on creation of new cities. It used to be easier to incorporate residential areas which would incorporate and block expansion of Cleveland and Cincinnati. There are now minimum population requirements at least around major cities. While there has been some effort to contain Columbus it hasn't been wholly successful.

This shows the Columbus city limits. Incorporated cities, including Columbus are shown with a gray tint. Be sure to zoom in.

Columbus zoning map

Is this why the municipal borders within Franklin County are so hideous?

[H. Ross Peron]

For anyone who wants to see the full list of cities with over 100k without having to download an excel chart:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_States_cities_by_population

Lots of older Southern California cities registering modest declines or zero growth, especially in Los Angeles County. Not surprising when they have little new land to develop and restrictive zoning laws remain in place, pricing out many younger families in particular.

[walleye26]

Columbus’ borders are worse than Madison’s! I didn’t think that was possible. Madison does, however, have border agreements in place with neighboring communities so that within the next 15-20 years or so they will follow roads and township borders to be clean. Is Columbus working on that too? Boy the city borders are nearly a crime against my eyes. Sheesh.

[Jackson Lee]

The CDC has recorded 3,565 million births since Census Day, 1 April 2020, and 3,521 million deaths.

That’s only 44,000 more births than deaths.

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/provisional-tables.htm

The numbers are important for mid 2021 population estimates out in December.

Only second quarter 2021 data is missing, but it’s unlikely the US population has grown by more than 100,000 as a result of more births than deaths since Census day.

What about immigration gains?

Vintage 2019 estimates showed an immigrant increase of 500,000-a number which should decrease in the Covid19 era.

The mid 2021 estimate in December could indicate a population of 332 million, +0,6 million in a year and a quarter. That 0,15% growth is the lowest ever recorded.

[jimrtex]

Columbus’ borders are worse than Madison’s! I didn’t think that was possible. Madison does, however, have border agreements in place with neighboring communities so that within the next 15-20 years or so they will follow roads and township borders to be clean. Is Columbus working on that too? Boy the city borders are nearly a crime against my eyes. Sheesh.

Ohio closed the barn door about 3 decades after the horse had left.

There is some sort of law that counties have to approve annexations - though it might not be discretionary if it meets certain requirements. Franklin County has approved about a dozen annexation this year, but most are small. The two largest were around 30 acres. Many were under an acre.

There were also three agreements to adjust boundaries between Columbus and other cities. I didn't see maps. These might be tweaks to get all of a road into one city or the other, which makes maintenance and policing simpler.

There are also some agreements where annexation to Columbus does not mean removal from a township. One problem with annexation is that it removes the territory from the township's tax base. If they have bond indebtedness it may make it difficult to service the debt.

Ohio redistricting law disfavors splitting of wards. It also disfavors splitting of cities and townships but that is not possible because of the size of Columbus. Columbus has lots of "wards", but doesn't use them for electing its city council. But they are drawn to help comply with the redistricting law. If you have a fragmented township forming islands, a Columbus ward will be drawn around the archipelago, so you can include all of the islands and that one ward in a district.

There is a similar system in Cleveland, where the wards are used for city council elections. They are drawn so you can connect to smaller cities on the edge of Cleveland.

[Frodo]

The CDC has recorded 3,565 million births since Census Day, 1 April 2020, and 3,521 million deaths.

That’s only 44,000 more births than deaths.

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/provisional-tables.htm

The numbers are important for mid 2021 population estimates out in December.

Only second quarter 2021 data is missing, but it’s unlikely the US population has grown by more than 100,000 as a result of more births than deaths since Census day.

What about immigration gains?

Vintage 2019 estimates showed an immigrant increase of 500,000-a number which should decrease in the Covid19 era.

The mid 2021 estimate in December could indicate a population of 332 million, +0,6 million in a year and a quarter. That 0,15% growth is the lowest ever recorded.

Historians and demographers have explained that as a lagging side effect from the Great Recession.  So not too dissimilar to the drastic drop in births we experienced as a result of the Great Depression.  I don't think it will be permanent.  We will see by 2030 whether I am right that there should be a recovery in both the birthrate and immigration rate this decade.