USA 2020 Census Results Thread (Release: Today, 26 April)

[Roronoa D. Law]

Nothing shows how bad the Northeast was underestimated more than Philadelphia Metro and Boston Metro back at #7 and #10 respectively.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Clark County NV actually ended up a bit below 73% of the state, bleh.    Looks like one of the congressional districts actually does have to take in a good chunk of the rurals.

160k-170k people look likely to be added to the rest-of-Clark CD. The 4th might actually move north.

[Nyvin]

Clark County NV actually ended up a bit below 73% of the state, bleh.    Looks like one of the congressional districts actually does have to take in a good chunk of the rurals.

160k-170k people look likely to be added to the rest-of-Clark CD. The 4th might actually move north.

I have it at 63k,  170k people would be pretty much almost everything outside the Reno/Carson City area.

[wbrocks67]

Looks like these numbers are good for Dems, no?

[ꙮ]

New York’s top 10 cities:

1. (-) New York City - 8,804,190 (+7.7%)
2. (-) Buffalo - 278,349 (+6.5%)
3. (+1) Yonkers - 211,569 (+7.9%)
4. (-1) Rochester - 211,238 (+0.4%)
5. (-) Syracuse - 148,620 (+2.4%)
6. (-) Albany - 99,224 (+1.4%)
7. (-) New Rochelle - 79,726 (+3.5%)
8. (-) Mount Vernon - 73,893 (+9.8%)
9. (-) Schenectady - 67,047 (+1.4%)
10. (-) Utica - 65,283 (+4.9%)

[Roronoa D. Law]

Some good for Dems in GA. Hall, Columbia, and Paulding look to have been overestimated while Muscogee, Richmond, and Bibb were underestimated.

[Tintrlvr]

Looks like these numbers are good for Dems, no?

Overall definitely better proportionally than the most recent county estimates, but not overwhelmingly so, maybe a marginal impact on congressional seats of +1 or 2 seats for the Democrats.

[Tintrlvr]

New York’s top 10 cities:

1. (-) New York City - 8,804,190 (+7.7%)
2. (-) Buffalo - 278,349 (+6.5%)
3. (+1) Yonkers - 211,569 (+7.9%)
4. (-1) Rochester - 211,238 (+0.4%)
5. (-) Syracuse - 148,620 (+2.4%)
6. (-) Albany - 99,224 (+1.4%)
7. (-) New Rochelle -
8. (-) Mount Vernon - 73,893 (+9.8%)
9. (-) Schenectady
10. (-) Utica - 65,283 (+4.9%)

Growth in Mount Vernon is pretty surprising; it hasn't had a notable increase in population (above +2%) since the 1960 Census. And Buffalo of course as others pointed out had declined at every Census since 1950!

[Tintrlvr]

Detroit still dropped over 10%, or around 75,000 people; not as fast as the 2000s but still pretty severe. So much for the "revitalization" narrative there (in contrast to so many other cities like Buffalo).

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Clark County NV actually ended up a bit below 73% of the state, bleh.    Looks like one of the congressional districts actually does have to take in a good chunk of the rurals.

160k-170k people look likely to be added to the rest-of-Clark CD. The 4th might actually move north.

I have it at 63k,  170k people would be pretty much almost everything outside the Reno/Carson City area.

Oh, I miscalculated badly, lol.
My math was on basis of 750,000-800,000 for a CD/10=75,000-80,000, then I doubled it.
I am going to take your word for it and assume you got it right.

[Roronoa D. Law]

Welp so much for that post recession rural come back.

[Coastal Elitist]

I'm not sure why people think these numbers will result in dems losing less seats in redistricting. You can still do 10-4 GA, 11-3 NC, 26-12 TX, 20-8 FL, 13-2 OH, 8-1 TN and so on. You just have to shift things with populations changes but you can still draw out dem incumbents and put them in safe R seats.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Welp so much for that post recession rural come back.

Bizarre to think that a majority of the US land area is in counties or county-equivalents that lost population from 2010 to 2020.

[Skill and Chance]

Welp so much for that post recession rural come back.

Bizarre to think that a majority of the US land area is in counties or county-equivalents that lost population from 2010 to 2020.

I want to say that's been the case since the 1940 census after the Dust Bowl?  Or if not that early, since the 1990 post-Farm Crisis census?

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Overall, it looks like rural areas were shafted - certainly in terms of raw numbers, and also generally by a bit relative to expectations (but with some variation). Any time that rural areas are shafted, it is a good thing. Besides any impacts on Congressional redistricting, rural areas will clearly be losing representation in state legislatures due to rural population losses. So I'll certify it a Freedom Census.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Welp so much for that post recession rural come back.

Bizarre to think that a majority of the US land area is in counties or county-equivalents that lost population from 2010 to 2020.

I want to say that's been the case since the 1940 census after the Dust Bowl?  Or if not that early, since the 1990 post-Farm Crisis census?

Has rural America ever had such a throroughly bad census before, though?

[Roronoa D. Law]

I'm not sure why people think these numbers will result in dems losing less seats in redistricting. You can still do 10-4 GA, 11-3 NC, 26-12 TX, 20-8 FL, 13-2 OH, 9-0 TN and so on. You just have to shift things with populations changes but you can still draw out dem incumbents and put them in safe R seats.

Wait how is that even possible or legal. 

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Has rural America ever had such a throroughly bad census before, though?

Not until the 2030 census. I am looking forward to that one for rural areas.

In the 2010 census, especially in areas ~west of the Missisippi and south of the Dakotas or so, there were quite a lot of small rural counties that only had narrow population gains due to Hispanic growth, but which already had *White* population loss. One interesting thing to see in the more granular data would be specifically how much of the White population loss in rural areas was offset by Hispanic growth. The White rural population loss might be even bigger than it looks if it is again the case that there was Hispanic rural growth keeping the overall rural population from dropping by even more.

[Roll Roons]

I'm not sure why people think these numbers will result in dems losing less seats in redistricting. You can still do 10-4 GA, 11-3 NC, 26-12 TX, 20-8 FL, 13-2 OH, 9-0 TN and so on. You just have to shift things with populations changes but you can still draw out dem incumbents and put them in safe R seats.

9-0 TN isn't possible. Even though Steve Cohen is white, his district is over 60% black and VRA protected.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Wait how is that even possible or legal.

If you have a partisan GOP Supreme Court, you simply say that whatever is good for the GOP is legal (and perhaps even that anything good for Dems is illegal). Although it makes a mockery of the idea of representative government, that is all part of the plan.

[Non Swing Voter]

I am late to the party.  So rural areas did even worse than expected?  i.e., they are way overrepresented in congress right now?  this doesn't seem too surprising given how out of touch congress is with real America.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I'm not sure why people think these numbers will result in dems losing less seats in redistricting. You can still do 10-4 GA, 11-3 NC, 26-12 TX, 20-8 FL, 13-2 OH, 9-0 TN and so on. You just have to shift things with populations changes but you can still draw out dem incumbents and put them in safe R seats.

9-0 TN isn't possible. Even though Steve Cohen is white, his district is over 60% black and VRA protected.

Attempting 9-0 TN is a dummymander, even more so because of trends in the Ds favor in some heavily R suburbs of Memphis.

[Non Swing Voter]

Seems like Dems now have a golden opportunity to gerrymander the hell out of NY.

[Lief 🗽]

I'm not sure why people think these numbers will result in dems losing less seats in redistricting. You can still do 10-4 GA, 11-3 NC, 26-12 TX, 20-8 FL, 13-2 OH, 9-0 TN and so on. You just have to shift things with populations changes but you can still draw out dem incumbents and put them in safe R seats.

9-0 TN isn't possible. Even though Steve Cohen is white, his district is over 60% black and VRA protected.

No guarantee that the Supreme Court will stop it. Roberts, the supposed "moderate," hates the VRA with a burning passion.

[Suburbia]

New York City gained 629,057 people. New York State gained 823,147 people, so 76% of the state's growth occurred in the city.

44% of NY state residents now live in New York City.

Can we retire the death of the American city meme already?

The cities are becoming unaffordable, riddled with crime like it was in the 80s/90s and too much racial politics....the suburbs are becoming the hotspots now

NYC will always be relevant, Chicago is a cesspool and there needs to be Independents in charge there