This could be a shocker if everything goes right for Democrats (including a good national environment), but I don’t see any way Pressley wins while Beshear loses. My current guess would be about Reeves +6, since Pressley getting 46% is actually quite believable. Likely R for now, probably closer to Lean than Safe out of caution, but this will still be an uphill climb.
I actually can see a scenario where Cameron wins and Reeves loses. It's pretty obvious that Cameron is a far stronger candidate than Reeves is at this point, and on top of that Presley is running an amazing campaign so far.
Yep, this is one case where the single issue abortion vote cuts the other way. Pressley can get a sizeable chunk of pro-lifers who would never even consider Beshear. In theory, Beshear can win with everyone who voted down the referendum, but that includes plenty of people who have never voted state/local Dem before so it's a stretch.
Beshear's hope is high info voters who like him as a person and know the R legislature can do as it pleases anyway.
I do Republicans think are have room to gain with black voters, but I’m not convinced that the ones that are ripest for them are actually going to vote in the fall of this year
