European Parliament Election: May 23-26, 2019

[Walmart_shopper]

69% Denk
67% SP and Volt
64% D66 and GroenLinks
59% PvdA
56% Christen Unie
51% 50 Plus (one)
51% Pirate Party
44% Dieren Party
38% De Groenen
33% Jezus Leeft
31% CDA
28% VVD
21% Vrijheid
18% FvD

[Walmart_shopper]

Lib Dem S U R G E

I hope that this is a more fundamental political realignment, with Brexit Party and the Lib Dems becoming the 2 main parties.

I think it's more likely that the Tories co-opt the values and principles of the Brexit Party (Boris will help with that) with its base in the middle class Midlands and Labour becomes a London-centered globalist liberal party, essentially co-opting the LibDems. The Cameron-inspired centrism of the Tories and the left-wing Corbynism of Labour will probably seem a blip on the radar screen of British political history, with Brexit just accelerating this alignment by forcing each party to choose where it stands with regards to the liberal order.

On the other hand, as in the US, it's hard to see riding the backs of middle class, white lives,  septegenarians as a durable political strategy. Cameron knew what he was onto, but a party dominated by insular rural old men is, after all, dominated by insular rural old men, and Davey learned that all top well.

[Walmart_shopper]

When the issue of Brexit ends, so too does the Lib Dem and Brexit surge. The 3 are highly correlated, so I doubt that after the issue is solved(however it is) that the surge will continue.

Whatever happens the question of our relationship with the EU will carry on being a significant issue for decades. So no, it’s not ending any time soon.

And it's also a foil for broader worldviews. What you think about Brexit automatically tells me what you think about a the world generally. So maybe Brexit does or doesn't happen, but the broader debates at the heart of Brexit (trade policy, immigration, foreign investment, globalism, nationalism) are only just getting heated up. Maybe the Lib Dems and the Farage clown car come and go, but they'll be embraces by the Tories and Labour all the same.

[Walmart_shopper]

Lib Dem S U R G E

I hope that this is a more fundamental political realignment, with Brexit Party and the Lib Dems becoming the 2 main parties.

I think it's more likely that the Tories co-opt the values and principles of the Brexit Party (Boris will help with that) with its base in the middle class Midlands and Labour becomes a London-centered globalist liberal party, essentially co-opting the LibDems.

Given the new membership of the party, and its central command, this is wishful thinking. It is London centric though.

That's nothing a few electoral disasters won't fix. And it seems that Sunday will be the first of those.

[Walmart_shopper]

I would really appreciate some comments from Polish and French posters on the state of the race in their countries.

If you have any questions about some issues do not hesitate to ask, but generally PE campaign is just prologue for Polish parliament elections.

How likely is it that Koalicja Europejska will get more votes than PiS?

And if PiS loses the European elections does that make a joint opposition list for the general election more likely? Does anyone believe that that can overcome the PiS this year?

[Walmart_shopper]

Never mind complex sets of issues... you honestly think there's anything that will make the current Labour membership become even slightly less left-wing, never bloody mind embracing a Lib Dem position?

No, it will definitely require new leadership.

[Walmart_shopper]

As a Commonwealth citizen, voting for the Brexit Party today.

If the EU is dumb enough to allow Canadians to blow up the EU then maybe we all should support the Brexit Party.

[Walmart_shopper]

As a Commonwealth citizen, voting for the Brexit Party today.

If the EU is dumb enough to allow Canadians to blow up the EU then maybe we all should support the Brexit Party.

Actually, it's the UK's laws that entitle Commonwealth citizens to vote in UK elections, provided they are resident on a valid visa.

And at least in this case, it's a wash. I cast my proxy vote today (or rather, had my mother-in-law cast it). Had to hold my nose to vote Lib Dem, but Labour just isn't pushing hard enough to kill off Brexit. Fingers crossed it works!

Does this include general elections, too?

[Walmart_shopper]

As a Commonwealth citizen, voting for the Brexit Party today.

If the EU is dumb enough to allow Canadians to blow up the EU then maybe we all should support the Brexit Party.

Actually, it's the UK's laws that entitle Commonwealth citizens to vote in UK elections, provided they are resident on a valid visa.

And at least in this case, it's a wash. I cast my proxy vote today (or rather, had my mother-in-law cast it). Had to hold my nose to vote Lib Dem, but Labour just isn't pushing hard enough to kill off Brexit. Fingers crossed it works!

Does this include general elections, too?

Yes. Inexcusably, it's only EU citizens who are not allowed to vote in GE's in the UK, no matter what. This leads to the preposterous situation where EU citizens who have been resident in the UK for decades can't vote for their MPs while Canadians in the UK on a 1 year student visa can.

At least in my case, my residence here is a longer term job, I've lived here for years. But I agree, the laws should be modified.

Long term residency should probably convey the right to vote no matter if you're a part of the British Commonwealth. The absurdity is the rando Canadian or Australian or whatever who gets to vote possibly after being in the country a week.

[Walmart_shopper]

Exit Poll
PvdA 18.4% 5 seats
VVD 14.6% 4 seats
CDA 12.5% 4 seats
FvD 11.2% 3 seats
GL 10.4% 3 seats
CU/SGP 7.9% 2 seats
D66 6.3% 2 seats
50+ 4.2% 1 seat
PVV 4.1% 1 seat
SP 3.9% 1 seat
PvdD 3.4% 0 seat
Others 3.1%
Wow PvdA largest party

Really a Timerfrans effect as I expected but not by this margin

Party like its 1999.

[Walmart_shopper]

Why is the only exit poll being released the Dutch poll? Are all other countries voting today still voting?

[Walmart_shopper]

tbh the most frightening development of the populist right will be when they figure out that their Eurosceptic agenda is much less appealing for the general European public (outside of odd Greek bailout style situations) than their anti-immigration schtick. I would not be surprised if the next generation of the populist right synthesizes cuts on migration/repatriation with pro-EU sentiment or even Eurofederalism (i.e. "the forces of Europe and Judeo-Christian values need to come together to fight against the horde etc).

I do think that outside of the UK this has already been realized, and even within the UK traditional politesse allowed the xenophobia to assume a cloak of dignified, sovereignty-seeking brexisteerism. Most far right parties don't even bother with the cloak and only oppose the EU in a refracted way because the EU allows too many dark people in.

[Walmart_shopper]

HUGE enthusiastic crowd at the FPÖs closing event in Vienna right now.

It’s possible that the FPÖ will not lose as much as the scandal would suggest ...

I'm not sure why you think the Ibiza scandal really would suggest a collapse in the FPO. The kinds of people who vote FPO would hardly be scandalized by Russophilia, and indeed would view the scandal as vindication that the mainstream in their country is really out to get them (and obviously they are). The quaint world of the far right is totally self-confirmatory. That's why it's hard to beat them.

[Walmart_shopper]

Turnout reports:

Germany and Austria: up moderately by 5-10%
UK: up slightly ca. 5%
France, Netherlands and Denmark: up slightly ca. 4%
Italy and Portugal: stable
Poland: twice the turnout of 2014 so far

Poland is going to be very interesting because the center-left coalition may be the joint list used to (try to) take down the PiS this fall. I'd it works today with a good turnout it may be the final push a joint list between the PO and other opposition parties needs to actually happen.

[Walmart_shopper]

AfD seems low

They've been happily for the world enduring a quiet collapse for a while.

[Walmart_shopper]

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1132678316698292224

That's really bad for Syriza, actually.

[Walmart_shopper]

https://twitter.com/BDStanley/status/1132723256606232583

What a failure for the anti-PiS opposition if true.

[Walmart_shopper]

Norbert Hofer just said that he's not "opposed in principle" that Strache takes his EU parliament seat.

Said Hofer: "Fact is that Strache received an enormous amount of preference votes, enabling him to take the seat. It is HIS decision."

So at this point the FPO is trying to toxify themselves enough that they're shut out of government for two decades instead 9f one.

[Walmart_shopper]

Amazing result. Huge PiS, Confederacy out (which presumably means they'll be in shambles and fighting each other long before the parliamentary election too).

https://www.jpost.com/Israel-News/Polish-prime-minister-equates-returning-Jewish-property-to-Nazi-victory-590112

REALLY?!

I actually agree with the Polish guy. I find Israeli outrage at Poland lately to be almost fainting-couch worthy. Especially coming from an almost unapologetically racist government like ours.

[Walmart_shopper]

Amazing result. Huge PiS, Confederacy out (which presumably means they'll be in shambles and fighting each other long before the parliamentary election too).

https://www.jpost.com/Israel-News/Polish-prime-minister-equates-returning-Jewish-property-to-Nazi-victory-590112

REALLY?!

I actually agree with the Polish guy. I find Israeli outrage at Poland lately to be almost fainting-couch worthy. Especially coming from an almost unapologetically racist government like ours.

The authoritarian PiS government has shown to, again and again, engage in foul rhetoric on the Holocaust and Jews. Comparing compensating Jews for their lost property to a "Hitler victory" is not even trying to hide their antisemitism.

As if Foreign Affairs Minister (!) Yisrael Katz's statement generalizing all Poles as antisemites was acceptable.

The diplomatic conflict between Poland and Israel is highly unfortunate, but in essence I think Poland is right: forcing 'compensation' for something that cannot possibly compensated from a nation that, often forgotten, was one of the main victims of Nazism and Communism too, is wrong. I wouldn't use PiS' language but I also wouldn't use Likud's language towards Poles and yet I'm happy Likud won the Israeli election too, despite my problems with them. It is what it is.

I guess the zionist left can legitimately support Ilhan Omar and her sort now. Her rhetoric is hardly worse than PiS', and she didn't pass a law limiting Jewish freedom of speech.

What's wrong with Ilhan Omar? I think Israelis' tendency to crassly politicize the Holocaust is contemptible, and whether the right or left is willing to point that out then good for them. Polish revisionism is laughable and somewhat pathetic, but Israel engages in revisionism with just as much gusto with regards to its own founding. I think that simply shows that Polish and Israeli democracy and self-perception is deeply immature, which makes sense given how young they are.

[Walmart_shopper]

Is there a breakdown of the Polish vote by age?

[Walmart_shopper]

Does the urban working class in Poland prefer KO or PiS?

PiS leaning.

I was curious because it seems PO/KE wins not just in Warsaw but most other Polish cities including those in say Silesia which I'd think have more of an industrial character compared to the capital.

In every Polish voivodship there is dominance of services over industry sector. Second of all, PiS is much stronger than PO in unqualified/qualified industrial worker but still they do not have support of every industrial worker. And also Silesia is specific region where there are also weird cultural connotations, Silesian identity etc. and PiS is strongly centralizing party so groups of Silesian Silesians might do not like PiS just for their nationalism and centralism. 

Is there a breakdown of the Polish vote by age?

It would seem that the lurch to the right among younger Poles is still very much a thing. That is so fascinating to me.