LA-06-SurveyUSA: Cazayoux favored in special election

[Alcon]

I haven't followed the race much.  Why are Cazayoux and Jenkins jerks?

I like how likely voters are 8% undecided, and people who have already cast their ballot are...18% undecided.  Right.

Indies sure hate Jenkins.

[Alcon]

Because they are both conservatives and this forum is overwhelmingly liberal.

Hey, man, I'm sure that could be a part of it, but this is LA-6.  Bush got 59%.  Jenkins has a 13-percent approval deficit, and it's 52 points among independents.  There's got to be something about the guy that's unappealing.

[Alcon]

Interesting how numbers were in in the CD-6 race before any precincts had reported, and how that's the case in some parishes now.  Do precincts report results in smaller bundles in Louisiana, or is it likely that all of the precincts that have really reported have reported in full, and the number of precincts reporting listed on the Election Returns Database was/is simply wrong?

I'm guessing absentees.

[Alcon]

Cazayoux leads in East Feliciana with 21 of 23 precincts in. It was for Bush by 10%, so a strong result for him.

Although since the district as a whole was Bush by nearly 20...

[Alcon]

Yes, this thing isn't at all over, especially since black areas of rural Louisiana historically tend to be slow to count.

Livingston being all in is very, very good for Cazayoux.  It's not an area Democrats improve in even when they do well.

[Alcon]

It's not suspicious, guys, it's reporting patterns in the South. Light!

Yes, the racial demographics of the South are a lot of things, but suspicious is not one of them.

[Alcon]

Remaining precincts were about 50/50 in the 2004 election, doing a quick spreadsheet analysis.

[Alcon]

Remaining precincts were about 50/50 in the 2004 election, doing a quick spreadsheet analysis.

This is good for Casayoux or not?

It's OK for him.  Still too close to call.

[Alcon]

508/512

Cazayou +3,030.

'Tis over unless there was a reporting error.

[Alcon]

Remaining precincts, not that it matters, are in Ward 1, Precinct 9x.  All of them went Kerry by over 4-to-1 margins.

[Alcon]

...Michael Jackson?

[Alcon]

Jenkins must have carried the last precinct (carried heavily by Kerry in 2004 according to Alcon) to come in, as Cazayoux's lead is down to 2,817 now.  At this rate Cazayoux's final margin would go down to 2,178 (based on Alcon's 3,030 margin for Cazayoux with four precincts remaining).

They must have deleted the black precinct range and added some white precincts.  So, I have no idea what just came in and what's left.  Could be black, could be white, could be mixed.