Is Arkansas a swing state?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Arkansas has picked the winner in every Presidential Election since 1960 with the exception of 1968 (when it went for Wallace).

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Arkansas is a swing state because it almost always votes for the winner

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The attitude exemplified by "Smash", my friends, is WHY the south does not vote Democrat.

The liberals seem to be under the impression that all of us down here are a bunch of racists.  Because the north, of course, has no history of racism.  I mean, its not like they brought the slaves over here on their merchant ships or anything......

If Bush getting 90% of the white vote is built on "racism", then why would Gore getting 90% of the black vote not be equally racist?  OHHH.. thats right... in liberal-land, blacks cannot be racist!

Arkansas is not a swing state, but I think it will go safely Democrat when the runner is a moderate southerner. Same with Tennessee, Louisiana, Georgia & Missouri. The only states in the south that will never go Democrat are South Carolina, Mississippi, Alabama & Texas.

SC is supposedly pretty close, though no recent polls prove that assumption.  Mississippi has a large African-American population, so maybe if something could get more of the A/A population to vote, I think MS could one day go Dem.

I think it will be hard for Miss to go Democrat  The Republicans have a stronghold on the racist vote.  No disrespect to anyone from Mississippi, but it has traditonally been one of the most racist states in the country.  In 2000 Bush had something like 90% of the white vote.   One way Missippi could go Dem is if someone like Rice runs on a VP ticket for te Republicans.  The African American vote will still be heavily Democrat despite having Rice on the  Republican ticket and the racists would stay home

Clinton came within 5% of taking MS in 1996. A Dem win at some point is certainly possible.
Bush did *not* win 90% of the White vote in MS.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Just wanted to make a correction.  Bush did not get 90% of the Mississippi white vote, it was 81%, I meant to say almost 90% because I was thinking of the white male vote which was 87% according to exit polls

That doesn't add up unless there was a very, very, very, very high black turnout.

MS results in 2000:

Gore: 40.7%
Bush: 57.6%

Bush didn't crack 80% in a single county
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I hate exit polls

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Mississippi is about 1/3 black, so about 30% of Gore's 40 was the black vote. That means Gore's other 10% was from the white vote, which means out of the white vote total he got around .1/.6666666.... which is 15%. So you have 85%, take away the third party vote and you have around 81%

The number of blacks voting is always less than their population.
Admittedly, MS is *the* worst state in the South for racial voting... so 80% is *just about* possible... but I doubt it.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Mississippi is about 1/3 black, so about 30% of Gore's 40 was the black vote. That means Gore's other 10% was from the white vote, which means out of the white vote total he got around .1/.6666666.... which is 15%. So you have 85%, take away the third party vote and you have around 81%

The number of blacks voting is always less than their population.
Admittedly, MS is *the* worst state in the South for racial voting... so 80% is *just about* possible... but I doubt it.

The black population in MS is about 36% so accounting for the fact that blacks tend to vote less than whites assuming 30% of the vote was black the projections make sense and tend to back the exit polls

It makes sense because you *want it* to make sense... I'd guess that Bush won about 75% of the white vote in Mississippi (it's impossible to tell accurately though).
Mississippi is the worst state in the U.S for racial voting (to risk understatement) and the whites-in-MM-areas-leaning-Democrat doesn't apply to the extent that it does in, say, Alabama...
80% is *just about* possible...