California Senate 2024 - Schiff (D) vs Garvey (R)

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I'm not a Feinstein fan at all, but I'd rather wait 2 years and pick from a fresh slate than be stuck with a pair of Newsom appointees for the next 2 decades

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Porter just had a big scandal regarding her treatment of staff, not sure she runs for senate at this point.  The main two candidates im likely to support at this point are either Khanna or Barbra Lee, though ill wait to see who announces and what their platform is before I make any commitments.

The only news outlets I've seen writing about any kind of staff-related scandals are Fox News, The NY Post and various right-wing publications.

Also the scandal itself (Assuming it's the COVID one) doesn't seem all that damning. The only reason they're latching onto it is because the staffer in question was a veteran.

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Endorsed.

I don't remember folks being this heated about her in the past. Is it solely due to the COVID story + announcement timing? Has is it been bottling up for years and it just came pouring out today?

Anyway, I'd also be alright with Lee, I could go either way with Khanna and I'm not enthusiastic about Schiff

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Where is the proof that Porter is actually terrible to her staff? The entire hubbub about those texts seemed like there was a lot of missing context and the full story wasn't really put forth (shockingly!)

For what its worth, I don't think any California news outlets have reported on it. It certainly wasn't brought up during yesterday's round of announcement articles.

The only ones I've seen reporting it are Fox News, NY Post and various right-wing news outlets

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I'm not sure how this obsession over "Who's more progressive/Moderate" will work for anyone considering there's like a 1% difference between how Porter/Lee/Schiff/Khanna vote

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I know announcements and such barely started this month, but I like how there's no clear consensus on who'll advance to the top-two. All the predictions so far are based on individual gut feelings, assumptions and preconceived notions.

I wish more California elections felt like this.

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Really glad to see my Congressman not on that list

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On the topic of demographics, it's interesting how there hasn't been any Hispanic politicians that've been floated as a potential candidate or even a remotely viable one. The only one I can think of is Xavier Becerra but he might have his eyes set more on the governors race

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I'm curious about recent examples of other primaries where the debate was this heated over candidates with miniscule ideological differences. The Pennsylvania Senate primary?

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I'm curious about recent examples of other primaries where the debate was this heated over candidates with miniscule ideological differences

Massachusetts in 2020. It was so insufferable and it gives me PTSD just thinking about it.

How did that one slip past me! I'll retract my question. This is small potatoes compared to that s***show

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And now the entire California establishment machine comes down for Schiff.

They already did, the House Democratic delegation (including Pelosi now that DiFi’s going bye bye) has already endorsed him.

Based on that list from Twitter, 23 of the 40 House Democratic delegation have endorsed him.

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comparing Biden's 2020 run with Barbara Lee's senate run is not an apt one...Dems didn't have many alternatives in 2020 and Biden was polling the best vs Trump among all possible Dem candidates. That's just not the case here...even worst possible Dem candidate will win the California Sen race.

And if that seat MUST be held by a WOC, why not London Breed and not somebody who’s almost 80 years old and would probably only serve a single term?

God no. I'm not a fan of geriatrics holding political power but I'll easily support Lee over Breed.

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Schiff was on Pod Save America, which is basically a pilgrimage for getting small donors and resistance wine mums, but it was interesting how I thought he was both quite flat (he spend 5 minutes talking about ethics reforms, inspector general reports etc) but also quite clearly sees himself as the favourite.

It's very early but of the three candidates, Schiff strikes me as the one most likely to flounder.

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/snip

Serious question: Why the constant harping against Porter? Practically every other of your posts in this thread seems to include a (sometimes lengthy) writeup on how overrated Porter is, how much of a fake progressive she is and/or how you think she'll collapse. You don't talk as much about Schiff even though you seem to dislike him more. Not sure if it comes from being very pro-Lee, anti-Porter or both.

Just wondering as someone who's currently supporting Porter but wouldn't mind voting for Lee or having her as a Senator.

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LA Times: These Democrats hoping to replace Feinstein largely agree on policy. So how do they differ?

The biggest names vying to replace retiring Sen. Dianne Feinstein largely agree on many issues dearest to Democratic voters, so their differing political passions, generational perspectives and life stories will likely be front and center in the first hotly contested Senate race in California in more than a decade.

Reps. Katie Porter, Adam B. Schiff and Barbara Lee all claim the progressive mantle, an almost essential ingredient for any politician hoping to put together a winning Senate campaign in a state that champions gun control, abortion rights, marriage equality and combating climate change. They face the difficult task of defining themselves in a heavily Democratic electorate that may struggle to distinguish what separates them.

“California is not going to elect a Republican. And they’re not going to elect a centrist. The question is what kind of progressivism is most important” to voters, said Dan Schnur, a politics professor at UC Berkeley, USC and Pepperdine University. “These three candidates represent very different strains of progressivism.”[...]

The three lawmakers’ voting records are nearly identical, as are their views on reproductive rights, same-sex marriage and labor rights, so Californians should expect to see a major emphasis on pivotal issues and votes where they did diverge, as well as on campaign finance.

One difference will be Lee’s post-9/11 votes contrasted with Schiff’s support of military action in Iraq and Afghanistan, as well as the Patriot Act’s ability to surveil American citizens. Another point of contention will be who backs their campaigns financially.

Porter refuses donations from corporate political action committees and federal lobbyists, while Schiff has received significant sums from committees representing businesses, including oil firms, payday lenders and pharmaceutical interests, according to campaign finance reports. A Schiff spokesman said he would not accept donations from corporate PACs for his Senate campaign.[...]

https://www.latimes.com/politics/story/2023-02-20/democrats-feinstein-porter-schiff-lee

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sucks that Lee entered the race...I was hoping Porter could win and have the seat for next 30+ years

Is that now impossible?

her chances have definitely taken a hit with Lee in the race. Would like to see a poll but wouldn't be surprised if she is in 3rd place

It's all we really have at the moment, but the Porter internal from a month or two ago had Schiff with 29%, Lee with 9% and Khanna with 6%

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First non-internal poll? From the UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies.


LA Times: Schiff, Porter in tight race to replace Sen. Feinstein, poll shows; others trail far behind

The race to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein is shaping up to be a close contest between two congressional colleagues who have built national profiles and potent fundraising operations but appeal to different generations of Democratic voters, according to a new UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies poll co-sponsored by the Los Angeles Times.

About 4 in 10 registered Democrats and nonpartisan voters in the survey said they hadn’t made up their minds on a candidate, so the race still has plenty of room to shift between now and the March 2024 primary [...]

Schiff has the support of 22%, with 20% backing Porter, 6% for Lee and 4% for Khanna, the poll found.[...]

Because no prominent Republican has gotten into the 2024 race — or even publicly discussed entering it — this poll questioned only Democrats and nonpartisan voters about the contest.

Despite being well-known in their respective districts, the candidates will need to do a lot of work to boost their prominence, the poll showed. Each of the four hopefuls was viewed favorably by voters, but huge swaths didn’t know enough to have an opinion of them. That was especially true for Khanna and Lee, who both drew blanks from more than 6 in 10 voters.

Other tidbits from the article:

- Scbiff leads Porter 42 - 17 among voters 65 and older
- Schiff leads Porter 27 - 19 among voters 50 - 64
- Porter leads Schiff 20 - 8 among voters 40 and under
- Porter holds big leads in OC and the Inland Empire. Schiff leads slightly in SF Bay, Central Coast and Central Valley. LA and San Diego are up in the air.

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It’s still way too early to predict what will happen with any real certainty, but that being said, at the moment it is looking like a Porter vs. Schiff race with Lee as a third-wheel running a vanity campaign.  Again, that could definitely change, but going strictly off of what we know right now, I think the forum CW is underestimating Porter’s odds and pretty heavily overestimating Lee’s chances given the currently available information.

Such is the case when the most vocal & frequent posters in this thread are ardently pro-Lee

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Um, I just want at least one of my senators to be from where I actually live. It’s not that deep. In a state of nearly 40 million that’s geographically expansive, it matters.

I also remember when the Bay Area held both senate seats for the last 27 of 30 years

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It's very weird because there are a lot of examples of aging senators (in seats with competitive races coming up) who simply get replaced by some random lawyer, campaign officer or state party official who the Governor appoints.

Newsom's past declaration that he would appoint a black woman here is an intriguing factor here. When he said this, people on this forum took that to mean London Breed because they were unaware that there are multiple black women who live in California. Maybe they know now. My thought at the time was that appointing Barbara Lee would make a lot of sense, and it still does, but now there's the complication of the fact that the primary campaign has already started. Lee would be very difficult to beat if she were the incumbent, and everyone knows it, and I think that there'll be a lot of people who would like Newsom to appoint someone else for that reason.

I audibly laughed at that line.

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Now the LA Times has her health issues on the front page.



LA Times: Feinstein's continued Senate absence sparks call for resignation

Weeks after announcing she had been diagnosed with shingles, Sen. Dianne Feinstein’s extended absence from the Senate has left Democrats in a tight spot given the party’s slim majority in the chamber, spurring some high-profile calls for her resignation.

Without Feinstein, who at 89 is the oldest sitting senator, the confirmation of President Biden’s judicial and administrative nominees has been complicated.

As the calls for her to step aside mounted from some corners of the Democratic Party, Rep. Ro Khanna (D-Fremont) joined the fray Wednesday.

“It’s time for @SenFeinstein to resign,” Khanna tweeted. “We need to put the country ahead of personal loyalty. While she has had a lifetime of public service, it is obvious she can no longer fulfill her duties. Not speaking out undermines our credibility as elected representatives of the people.”

Khanna is co-chair of the Senate campaign of Rep. Barbara Lee (D-Oakland), who is running to succeed Feinstein at the end of her term and is a possible pick of Gov. Gavin Newsom if he keeps his promise to appoint a Black woman to the seat if Feinstein retires early. But he could face criticism because such an appointment could be viewed as giving Lee an edge in the Senate race.[...]

https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2023-04-12/feinstein-senate-absence-shingles-judicial-nominees-call-for-resignation

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https://twitter.com/VanceUlrich/status/1661392077777944576

Slightly misleading. Those numbers are after "positive" candidate biographies were presented. Here are the numbers prior to that info:

Early - 27%
Porter - 24%
Schiff - 21%
Lee - 11% (!!!)
Other/undecided - 17%

Those other numbers, coupled with the fact that this is a Lee internal, lead me to believe that the campaign is pretty desperate to spin this result as a positive, despite the fact that even a 9 point swing doesn't even get her out of 4th place.

Then again, this is just one poll.

Me, the only (open) Porter Stan on the entire Website after seeing her leading the first true poll to Schiff and Lee stans after being told over and over that she’s DOA:

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I'm not gonna get ahead of myself just yet. However, as someone who's grown really bored of this thread transforming into a Lee lovefest, I'd be lying if I said I didn't crack a smile at those numbers

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The funny thing is that I think Lee would've been a shoo-in appointment if she hadn't started her campaign months ago. But she got way too greedy way too early and now her whole camp sound like petulant children.

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This whole thing is just gross. Makes me think less of both Newsom and Lee.

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Lol ok. I take back some of what I said 2 hours ago. 4D chess move by Newsom.