Arizona megathread (user search)
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Author Topic: Arizona megathread  (Read 71539 times)
MargieCat
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« on: November 11, 2020, 09:35:05 PM »

As a democrat, I hope McSally runs. But that will never happen.

There are several options for republicans. Like Biggs, Gosar, or Lesko. There is also talk about Kimberly Yee, the state treasurer.

For democrats, I think it will be either Katie Hobbs or Greg Stanton. I also like Ruben Gallego but I have no idea if he is interested in the job.
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MargieCat
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Posts: 1,573
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« Reply #1 on: June 09, 2021, 09:56:58 PM »

Red Eagle Politics thinks Yee will defeat Hobbs by 6 or 7 points because of Katie Hobbs' "far-left rhetoric." lol.
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MargieCat
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Posts: 1,573
United States


« Reply #2 on: June 11, 2021, 08:20:57 PM »

Democrat Adrien Fontes, who just lost reelection as Maricopa County Recorder is running for Secretary of State. Likely against Republican Michelle Ugenti-Rita.
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MargieCat
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« Reply #3 on: September 24, 2021, 07:31:25 PM »

It looks highly likely Kari Lake will get the coveted Trump endorsement.

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MargieCat
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Posts: 1,573
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« Reply #4 on: September 24, 2021, 10:44:21 PM »

Trump endorsing Lake would be one of the biggest boosts Democrats could get in this race. Yee is by far the strongest candidate, and her losing the primary makes Democratic chances in this race rise considerably (I'd say Lean R with Yee and Tossup with Lake).
It seems like Trump is actively trying to sabotage the GOP in the midterms. First Ted Budd and now this. It's also looking like he will torpedo Brnovich.

If he endorses Bolduc before Sununu (or even Scott Brown) announces or declines to run, it will prove my point.
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MargieCat
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Posts: 1,573
United States


« Reply #5 on: September 28, 2021, 07:48:52 PM »

I'm interested to see which areas go for which candidate in the primary.

I think Yee could win McCain republicans and the more moderate and independents around the Phoenix area.

Salmon will win the Mormon vote for sure.

I think Lake gets the MAGA vote.
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MargieCat
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Posts: 1,573
United States


« Reply #6 on: July 17, 2022, 03:18:13 PM »

Maybe Democrats should run ads saying something along the lines of "Kari Lake stands with Trump. She will not let democrats steal any more elections. She will not bend to the woke mob. Having Katie Hobbs as governor would be like having a third term of Doug Ducey."

They can make the ads seem as if they are coming from the Lake campaign or a GOP group, but tie Hobbs to Ducey (as if it were a bad thing).

It might be a way to help attract independents and moderate non-Trumpy republicans to vote for Hobbs.
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MargieCat
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Posts: 1,573
United States


« Reply #7 on: August 03, 2022, 01:13:45 AM »

I'm glad Robson appears to have won. This is the best case scenario for the GOP to pick up the seat.
It's still unclear who the winner is.

Too many outstanding votes and Trump-aligned voters typically show up more on election day.
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MargieCat
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Posts: 1,573
United States


« Reply #8 on: August 28, 2023, 07:51:58 PM »

Regarding the counting process, one reform I would make is to make the deadline for mailing in ballots the weekend before the election, and any absentees past that need to be dropped off at a vote center. Since a majority of absentees are ie mailed from Maricopa to Maricopa, most should be counted within 12 hours of polls closing. There will be small amount of provisionals and postmarked absentees arriving after that, but that would only be a trickle, and not cause a sudden large shift. I would aim to get at least 95% of the ballots in by the day after the election (and ideally, 99%), not 80% like before.

Just follow Florida's lead.
-Mail ballots have to be received by poll closing.
-In-person early votes have to be counted by the day before election day.
-Allow early and mail ballots to be processed ahead of time. Even if it's the Republican legislature that's blocking this, there's a very real chance that Democrats get a trifecta in 2024 and can immediately implement this for 2026 and beyond.
Arizona is pretty quick at counting the mail-in ballots (received before election day) and in-person votes and usually that's all dumped on election night. It typically comes down to Maricopa County.

The backlog comes due to people handing in their mail ballots on election day or using dropboxes at the last possible moment. And some of the later dumps have USPS mail delivered right on election day, which need to go through the canvas process.

Arizona is a little different from other states in that they allow you to hand in your mail ballots at the polls on e-day. This allows voters to go to the polling place and get their sticker, while bypassing the lines. But unlike the e-day votes which are tabulated immediately, they still go through the canvas process at central count. I refer to this process as "hybrid voting," a term you will not hear anywhere else because I coined it.

Not to sound like a vote suppressor, but they probably need to quit allowing voters to hand in their ballots to polling places on election day. They could give directions to a ballot drop box (which a lot of voters might not trust) or spoil their mail ballot and make them get in the line just like everyone else. The act of handing in a mail ballot on election day really should be discouraged.

In addition, due to First-in-first-out (FIFO) of tabulation of these ballots, the precincts near central count tend to be very blue (Downtown and South Phoenix) as are the ballots. The later batches tend to get redder as the distance to central count gets larger. Ballots from exurban Maricopa County tend to be pretty red.
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MargieCat
Jr. Member
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Posts: 1,573
United States


« Reply #9 on: March 20, 2024, 07:17:11 PM »

With Hodge out, Lauren Kuby just declared a statement of interest today. Former Corporation Commission candidate and Tempe Vice-mayor.
https://apps.arizona.vote/electioninfo/assets/46/0/StatementsOfInterest/kuby-lauren-21847-24664.pdf
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