Arizona megathread

[wesmoorenerd]

Is it too early to start thinking about 2022 gubernatorial races, seeing as the presidential race hasn't been called yet? Don't be ridiculous, of course it's not!

Doug Ducey is term-limited, although, having completely botched his state's COVID response, he may be more of a liability than an asset this point anyway. The R bench is looking pretty sparse here: the House delegation is full of Freedom Caucus wingnuts with far-right ties and ethics problems, and their most recent statewide primary featured a now two-time loser, a chemtrail conspiracy nut, and Joe Arpaio, whose disgusting barbarism I can't do justice with merely a short description. Fortunately for the Rs, they do have two credible statewide officeholders in AG Mark Brnovich and Treasurer Kimberly Yee, the former of whom is term-limited and likely looking for a promotion.

On the Dem side, there are probably a few more options. Greg Stanton in particular is known to have his eyes on the Governor's Mansion, and SOS Katie Hobbs would be a formidable candidate as well, though she'd likely prefer to hold down her current post.

So, thoughts on these primaries and on the likely outcome of the general election? Alongside MD and GA, this seems like one of the few real offensive targets Dems have in the 2022 gubernatorials.

[wesmoorenerd]

The AZ GOP really seems to be imploding rn, especially if Lake wins.

They aren't even making a half baked effort to appeal to voters outside their base which even in a good year overall for the GOP they'll likely still need.

I wouldn't be suprised if soon AZ has 2 D senators, a 5D-4R House delegation, dem majorities in both chambers, and Dems in most row offices. Ofc Rs will likely hold the state supreme court for a while which is quite conservative and 7-0 conservative majority. One thing I am unhappy about is the new AZ congressional map doesn't give Dems a lot of room to grow past 5 representatives.

With the main difference of slightly lower education and just being more historically conservative, AZ is quite simillar to CO demographically, and geopolitically, being a mostly urban state with a lot of conservative suburbs and exurbs.

I wasn't thrilled with the new AZ map initially, but there's a good chance it looks better by the end of the decade. If Stanton holds on this year, AZ-04 is almost certainly safe for the rest of the decade considering it's already fairly blue and rapidly trending further in that direction. Biden won both AZ-01 and AZ-06 and both seats trended blue by a not insignificant amount in 2020. If those trends continue, a Democratic majority in the House delegation could end up being pretty durable by the end of the decade.

[wesmoorenerd]

I'm glad Robson appears to have won. This is the best case scenario for the GOP to pick up the seat.

dim bulb

[wesmoorenerd]

Seems to me that, while Hobbs isn't a great candidate, Lake is definitely a worse one. With a national environment looking more like a wash than a red wave, I think that can easily make the difference and deliver a small victory for Hobbs.

[wesmoorenerd]

Ok jeez I agree that Hobbs has been underwhelming so far but the idea that she's DOA or this is a Likely R race or something like that is just asinine. This is still arguably likelier to flip than WI