NYT/Siena Polls of 6 Battleground States

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/SteveKornacki/status/1191306291672756224

Suffice to say... I don't buy this. Trump's national average is literally -14, even worse than last year, and he is down to -20 in some national polls. National does not equal battleground, but there's no reason to suggest that his standing has IMPROVED in some aspects in the battlegrounds.

I also find it odd that Nate and co. did not give actual #s, just the margins.

Also also: Biden winning AZ more than Pennsylvania? Nah fam.

[wbrocks67]

Then you have likely voter model helping Trump instead of Republicans.

Oh, and white college educated doing *worse* for Bernie and Warren than HRC, despite that demographic moving further and further away from Trump.

FL and I guess NC is really the only ones that seem believable.

[wbrocks67]

Full results:

PENNSYLVANIA
Biden 47% - Trump 44%
Trump 45% - Warren 44%
Sanders 45% - Trump 44%

ARIZONA
Biden 50% - Trump 45%
Warren 47% - Trump 45%
Trump 47% - Sanders 46%

FLORIDA
Biden 46% - Trump 44%
Trump 45% - Warren 41%
Trump 45% - Sanders 44%

IOWA
Trump 45% - Biden 44%
Trump 47% - Warren 40%
Trump 47% - Sanders 43%

MICHIGAN
Trump 45% - Biden 44%
Trump 46% - Warren 39%
Sanders 45% - Trump 43%

NORTH CAROLINA
Trump 48% - Biden 46%
Trump 47% - Warren 44%
Trump 48% - Sanders 45%

WISCONSIN
Biden 47% - Trump 43%
Warren 46% - Trump 46%
Sanders 47% - Trump 45%

[wbrocks67]

I know Sienna is very accurate, but some of these numbers are hard to swallow. Michigan being to the right of Florida and Arizona being the biggest red flag.

I totally agree. PA/NC/WI are very plausible but MI and FL numbers are hard to swallow

Right... Biden is somehow winning FL by 2 but tying in Michigan?

The only caveat to these #s is most only add up to about ~90% so the last minute deciders will be key again like 2016, where they broke for Trump. I just don't imagine them breaking for him this time.

[wbrocks67]

This seems unlikely:

The Trump voters who supported Democrats in the midterms say they'll back Trump by 2-1 margins
Trump leads all in Obama-Trump counties, precincts

[wbrocks67]

The PA poll has Biden only +13 in Allegheny County (Pittsburgh)... sure, Jan

[wbrocks67]

Democrats are still unable to cut into Trumps lead among White Non-College Voters. Exit Polls 2016 showed Trump winning them by 26 Points, according to these NY/Siena Polls Trump leads Biden by 24 Points.

Conclusion: Democrats have completely abandoned Rural America. If they don't cut into Trumps lead soon there they will be again at the losing End of a Presidential Election.

How have they abandoned them? More like Rural Voters refuse to vote for Democrats, no matter what Democrats do. It's a losing battle.

[wbrocks67]

Interesting:

Will vote for Trump/will vote for the Dem nominee in 2020:

Wisconsin: 40/46%
Pennsylvania: 41/45%
Florida: 39/43%
Arizona: 41/44%
Michigan: 38/41%
Iowa: 41/43%
NC: 44/45%

A Generic Dem has the same result (+4) in Pennsylvania and... Florida?

[wbrocks67]

These numbers are weird, to say at least. Only FL and NC seem about accurate. But MI to the right of AZ and FL? Nah, not happening.

I might add that I don't buy the MI/WI/PA numbers showing Dems ahead by double digits for a minute. These polls here may overestimate Trump like him leading Warren by 6 in MI, but overall closer than Emerson's recent MI GE poll numbers.

Michigan could vote to the right of PA and WI in 2020. It's possible although Trump is likely to win all 3 again.

Trump isn't "likely" to win all 3 again. There's a remote chance it happens again, and if he's reelected, at least one of these states will go for him. WI is the most likely one, with PA and MI following, respectively.

You're wrong and clearly didn't watch the 2016 election. If Trump is winning WI he is likely winning MI and PA. There are similar voters in the Midwest.

There is no evidence that Trump is favored in these battlegrounds. It's not like GA, where Dems fell (narrowly) short in the midterms. I'm not saying it's impossible he wins 1,2 or 3 of these states, but neither polling nor election results since 2016 support the narrative of "Trump is favored". I'm not buying the double digit polling leads for Dems either, but if Trump is stuck at around 40% as sitting prez and has approvals underwater, I'd be worried if I was on his campaign.

He's not stuck at around 40% here, he clearly polls at least at 44%. Also, why would midterm results be relevant for this cycle?

Exactly I am so sick of dems on this forum bringing up 2018. 2016 is a much bigger indicator for 2020 than 2018 because it was a presidential electorate and the voters that switched from Obama to Trump are still by in large with Trump in the Midwest.

Trump remains marred around 45% though. He hasn't expanded his base from 2016 at all. Last minute deciders and undecideds break for the party out of power, which means the Dems might only be only a few % above now but are more likely to scoop up those voters.