UK General Discussion: Rishecession

[Torie]

I think it's grand that the euro, pound and dollar are now close to all having the same value. It makes the maths so much easier.

[Torie]

Does Truss not read The Economist? Why is she doing this to herself? It just doesn't make any sense. And now the US is going to slide into a significant recession, so it is not as if she can surf on a wave of prosperity elsewhere.

https://www.economist.com/leaders/2022/09/22/liz-trusss-selective-reaganomics-wont-work

[Torie]

The big difference is essentially quite basic: millions of people have just lost thousands of pounds from their pension pots and they will not get it back. Anyone trying to buy a house at the moment (we're obviously well into the thousands here) will have been screwed over quite terribly and in a life-changing manner, and anyone with a mortgage will be looking at the looming certainty of vaulting interest rates with serious fear. Material factors move polls like nothing else.

Are fixed rate home mortgages not a thing in the UK? The US has a quite scandalous way of subsidizing home purchases, and even second home purchases, because basically the Feds buy these mortgages, and assume all of the interest rate risk. It is the greatest subsidy to the middle and upper middle class, and the top 1% known to man.

[Torie]

Prior to it in fact happening, how widely was it perceived that the UK markets would have a nervous breakdown over the implementation of Truss's economic plan?

I mean presumably if Truss had a clue, she would not have done what she did knowing it would not survive a fortnight. Was she just hoping she would get lucky, and draw a winning lottery ticket?

Once upon a time, it seemed that the laws of economics had been repealed and there really was a free lunch.  Now it seems there is no lunch to be had at all at any price, just to balance things out.

[Torie]

This provides some more info on how the PM replacement affair will be handles for those like myself who are clueless.

https://time.com/6223524/who-replaces-liz-truss-uk-prime-minister/

[Torie]

I get it that Sunak is not the best communicator, is a bit of a trimmer, and could never win a general election (but then who can at the moment for the Tories - Zelensky?), and that yes Boris has charisma, and that bouncing him for lying about party gate seems not the worst malum in se act imaginable, but that is just me (yes, I quite like the man, roguish as he is, sue me), but why on earth would Tory MP's want more of him, when the mere prospect of that, while not as confidence crushing as Liz Truss at the wheel, is roiling the markets. Why has the Tory MP judgment been so abysmally poor at all of this?  Has the party suffered a brain drain ala the Pubs, and what is left is largely a gravitas free zone of pols on the make?

https://www.ft.com/content/e8d941eb-c435-4897-b957-dbc87ece56ac

[Torie]

This provides some more info on how the PM replacement affair will be handles for those like myself who are clueless.

https://time.com/6223524/who-replaces-liz-truss-uk-prime-minister/

I would strongly advise against reading any American sources on what's happening in the UK (or let's be honest, any other country).  Their explainers are generally written by people who just had it explained to them ten minutes earlier.

The BBC seems to be more or less adequate.

(Though to be fair, reading BBC analysis of political news in the US can also be a source of comedy.)

Yes, but that is all I could find. The Guardian run down was too garbled for my taste.

Still unclear is whether Boris and Sunak would have an instant debate, assuming Boris pulls the trigger and they both get 100 votes. That would be ... interesting ... to say the least.

[Torie]

To try to be somewhat fair to Truss, and I know it is hard, how much of a surprise was it when the markets near instantly collapsedin the face of her economic program? While many thought her program did not pencil and was reckless, how many really anticipated the fury of the market backlash? I suppose for those who did, some might have made a lot of money over shorting and hedging the right assets.

[Torie]

Apparently the syndrome  of anonymous spin doctors has crossed the Pond.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/oct/22/penny-mordaunt-backers-counting-on-stop-sunak-mps-if-boris-johnson-falls

““There’s a lot of people who still just hate each other – that has not changed since the summer,” said a Mordaunt ally. “It’s only intensified. That is why Penny could emerge as the genuine unity candidate. There’s Boris people who look at Rishi and just really can’t stomach him and won’t want to serve under him – and I doubt they are going to be quiet in any situation in which Rishi is prime minister. She has none of the baggage. If not first, she is everyone’s number two choice. Her private numbers are much higher than publicly listed.”

[Torie]

Inasmuch as it is my impression that the Truss borrow and spend and tax cut economic plan was a departure from the Boris economic policies, is it nevertheless well taken by Boris's detractors, that his return would be another kick in the nuts to the UK economy?

From the Guardian:

"Former cabinet ministers backing Sunak said a comeback for Johnson would also unsettle the financial markets, increasing the risk of further sharp rises in interest rates by the Bank of England within days."

About a dozen Torie MP's are saying they will leave the party if Boris comes back. The level of threats and counter threats seems to be rising. Who are the eminence grises to calm things down? And why would Boris want to step into this mine field? Seems nutter to me.

If it were me, I would waive a wand and put Jeremy Hunt on the throne, and tell the squabbling jejunes to go back to throwing sand at each other in the sandbox. Calm, moderate, competent and dull. That's the ticket.

[Torie]

The NHS does not focus on preventative care? Ouch.

[Torie]

Thanks for the thoughtful and comprehensive response.

In the US, there is a much better focus on prevention I think these days, and computers and what not have made things reasonably efficient. One huge problem however is the quality of care giving organizations or people, is so uneven. Thus it is necessary to have coverage not leashed by geographic location, and to check out the qualifications of the individuals carefully, and not be shy about hiring and firing. So in that sense it can be a time consuming task, and the patient needs proactive, and not afraid to ruffle feathers. Covid has taken its toll. The Hospital and its service providers, primary care and otherwise, in Hudson, NY is close to collapse.

For sickie types, it is advantageous to be in a place like NYC. It really does.

[Torie]

At the moment, he believes that nothing should stand in the way of Labour winning the next GE.

Yes, that is a fair assessment at present.

The question is, does he have any deeper philosophy to guide him when in government? His critics say not and this is a major reason why he will be a disaster in power. I think they could yet be wrong.

That's what I'm mean.

He'll do anything, adopt anything, dump anything to win a GE (even though he might not have to) There's no grand narrative; he doesn't ever articulate what he wants the country to be.

Is it possible to have a party manifesto that is devoid of substantive content? At least that would give the House of Lords more to do potentially as I understand the "arcanities" of the UK system. .

[Torie]

Do any of you remember who Liz Truss is?

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2023/01/30/liz-truss-republican-party-00080280

[Torie]

Do any of you remember who Liz Truss is?

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2023/01/30/liz-truss-republican-party-00080280

Articles like this remind us what absolute nutjobs the US Republican Party are.

How about this one?

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=537548.msg8962529#msg8962529

[Torie]

It seems that the hat trick here is to leave as vague as possible who has the final say over disputes about what is subject to tariff and what is not. What are grocery shelf goods anyway? Where’s the beer section? The main imperative of everyone seems to be derive the maximum political advantage. Sunak has probably privately given up on the whole lot. I certainly would.

Under the new terms being hammered out by Mr. Sunak and negotiators from the European Commission, the bloc’s executive arm, food and other goods destined for grocery shelves in Northern Ireland would pass through a “green lane,” requiring no customs declarations. Goods destined for Ireland would continue to undergo border checks.

The role of the European Court of Justice is another stubborn sticking point. Unionists and Brexiteers in the Conservative Party have threatened to oppose any agreement that would leave the court with ultimate jurisdiction over Northern Ireland, arguing that this would infringe on British sovereignty.

Mr. Sunak said he was seeking a compromise that would allow Northern Ireland’s Assembly to scrutinize European Union laws — and potentially amend or reject them — before they were imposed on the territory.

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/02/26/world/europe/uk-northern-ireland-protocol-rishi-sunak.html

[Torie]

How are goods handled that are shipped into the EU from NI that have had substantial value added in Great  Britain with a bit more in NI that would be subject to tariff and regulation if shipped directly from London to Paris? How are hybrid goods handled?

[Torie]

One would think that if exports from NI to the EU went up to the degree that it could only be explained by illegal trans shipments from the UK, rather than internal NI economic activity, that there would be a course correction.

I was wondering myself whether Ukraine had something to do with the more positive atmosphere.

[Torie]

What I've found interesting in recent years is how the once 'reputable' right wing press have trashed themselves by choice. In the US you can argue there was some market demand for our but given sliding sales and online engagement, everything from constant TERF pieces, to Roald Dahl, to obsessions over Meghan... you're finding a more reasonable, in terms to what issues actually matter to most people, outlook in the red tops.

I say by 'choice'. There's some proprietary or editorial pressure on the scales of course.

My pet theory is that this is down to declining circulation - it's no longer possible to run it with the pretence it's a commercial enterprise, so the only reason to own a broadsheet is that you want a pulpit that regurgitates your opinions back to you. Their audience has changed from the readers to the proprietors.

The Daily Mail found out a way out of it by appealing to American audiencies that don't have a major right wing national newspaper.

The WSJ is too upscale, and the NY Post too regional.

Thanks to the internet, all English Speaking countries essentially form a single media market.

This one below is my favorite. I remember during first Iraq war that they had hot pics of a battalion of Brit troops, referred to as a "coiled snake" ready to strike and sink their "venomous jaws" into all who got in their way en route to Saddam's throat (this was before military females were much of a thing), and actually ran a hook up service on the side, where selected buffed warrior studs would make a brief statement as to what he was looking for romantically, and they could pick and choose among the responders. None seemed interested in males sad to say. Great stuff nevertheless - just fabulous. How on earth did you fail to mention it? It's much better than the NY Post.

https://www.the-sun.com/

[Torie]

Does the opinion of the DUP have any prospect to affect the contours of the deal Sunak cut with the EU?

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-03-14/dup-seeks-changes-to-uk-eu-windsor-deal-on-n-ireland-trade-after-brexit