2010 Primaries Thread (It's all over now, baby blue)

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

According to Dick Morris, Gillibrand's seat is now in play...

Don't beleive anything that guy says. I long for that days when Alan Colmes actually called him out, now Hannity just hangs on his every word with no accountability.

Once again, NY-04 picks the worst possible choice to run against McCarthy. As such, McCarthy's stint in Congress will continue for sure.

[Beet]

Frankly, I thought DioGuardi would do better than he did. It's amazing that Malpass nearly knocked him off.

[Eraserhead]

If this was a different year and I was in a weird mood... who knows... maybe I'd give the old bastard my first ever Republican vote.

He's not winning anything serious again though. lol.

[Eraserhead]

What are everyone's predictions for tomorrow?

DE:

US Senate (GOP)
O'Donnell 54%
Castle 46%

DC:

Mayor (DEM)
Gray 49%
Fenty 40%

NH:

US Senate (GOP)
Ayotte 39%
Lamontagne 35%
Binnie 17%
Bender 9%

NY:

Governor (GOP)
Paladino 52%
Lazio 48%

US Senator Special (DEM)
Gillibrand 76%
Goode 24%

US Senator Special (GOP)
DioGuardi should win. I found out today that he is strongly against the Iraq and Afghanistan blunders. That's pretty interesting.

US Senator (GOP)
No clue who'll win this. Flip a coin.

Attorney General (DEM)
Schneiderman 34%
Rice 33%
Sean Coffey 16%
Dinallo 9%
Brodsky 8%

NY-14 (DEM)
Maloney wins big.

NY-15 (DEM)
Rangel survives. It won't be very close.

NY-23 (GOP)
Doheny over Hoffman. I'm not sure about the margin here.

Hmm, not a bad showing if I don't say so myself (called Gillibrand-Goode exactly right!). I'm still a bit shocked by the size of Paladino's margin though.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

O'Donnell's website reportedly crashed from the attention.  She's having a fund raiser - and raised almost $750,000 so far today.  Democrats should be afraid - not necessarily of O'Donnell, but of the political climate that brought her to victory.

Congratulations to Christine O'Donnell, who has the distinction of being both a symptom and a disease at the same time.

[tpfkaw]

Paladino won Erie County 93-7.

[WMS]

- MA-09 (D) - Conservadem Stephen Lynch faces a challenge from the left in attorney Mac D'Alessandro. Lynch, of course, has a large cash advantage.

- RI-02 (D) - Rep. Jim Langevin faces two primary challengers, the more significant being State Rep. Betsy Dennigan, but he should have little trouble winning another term.

Oh, I'm calling BS. Is being pro-life, in and of itself, enough to be called a 'conservadem'? Nice to see liberal tolerance is still going strong.

Oh, and both of these fine pro-life Democrats won their primaries. Neener neener neener.

[Lief 🗽]

Lynch is presumably a conservadem because he voted against Obamacare.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

- MA-09 (D) - Conservadem Stephen Lynch faces a challenge from the left in attorney Mac D'Alessandro. Lynch, of course, has a large cash advantage.

- RI-02 (D) - Rep. Jim Langevin faces two primary challengers, the more significant being State Rep. Betsy Dennigan, but he should have little trouble winning another term.

Oh, I'm calling BS. Is being pro-life, in and of itself, enough to be called a 'conservadem'? Nice to see liberal tolerance is still going strong.

Oh, and both of these fine pro-life Democrats won their primaries. Neener neener neener.

We're a bit more tolerant of dissenting opinions than the GOP then clearly.

[Meeker]

- MA-09 (D) - Conservadem Stephen Lynch faces a challenge from the left in attorney Mac D'Alessandro. Lynch, of course, has a large cash advantage.

- RI-02 (D) - Rep. Jim Langevin faces two primary challengers, the more significant being State Rep. Betsy Dennigan, but he should have little trouble winning another term.

Oh, I'm calling BS. Is being pro-life, in and of itself, enough to be called a 'conservadem'? Nice to see liberal tolerance is still going strong.

Oh, and both of these fine pro-life Democrats won their primaries. Neener neener neener.

Lynch got his primary challenge because of his vote on healthcare. Dennigan also didn't really mention Langevin's pro-life stances during the campaign. Neither of these races had anything to do with abortion.

[You kip if you want to...]

According to Dick Morris, Gillibrand's seat is now in play...

[JohnnyLongtorso]

- MA-09 (D) - Conservadem Stephen Lynch faces a challenge from the left in attorney Mac D'Alessandro. Lynch, of course, has a large cash advantage.

- RI-02 (D) - Rep. Jim Langevin faces two primary challengers, the more significant being State Rep. Betsy Dennigan, but he should have little trouble winning another term.

Oh, I'm calling BS. Is being pro-life, in and of itself, enough to be called a 'conservadem'? Nice to see liberal tolerance is still going strong.

Oh, and both of these fine pro-life Democrats won their primaries. Neener neener neener.

I didn't say anything about Langevin's ideology? And Lynch is pretty conservative for a guy in a safe Dem district.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Though not really for that district. In any case, that he could even be thought as such is an indication of how the meaning of the term 'conservative democrat' has shifted almost out of recognition over the past couple of decades.

[Meeker]

Strange video: http://videoshare.politico.com/singletitlevideo.php?bcpid=19407224001&bctid=610259329001

Neither O'Reilly or Palin can remember who she endorsed in New Hampshire. Or Palin didn't understand O'Reilly was taking to her. But O'Reilly also makes it sounds like the guy he's talking about is Lamontagne and that he was endorsed by Palin and that he won, when in fact Palin endorsed Kelly Ayotte and she won.

[xavier110]

Strange video: http://videoshare.politico.com/singletitlevideo.php?bcpid=19407224001&bctid=610259329001

Neither O'Reilly or Palin can remember who she endorsed in New Hampshire. Or Palin didn't understand O'Reilly was taking to her. But O'Reilly also makes it sounds like the guy he's talking about is Lamontagne and that he was endorsed by Palin and that he won, when in fact Palin endorsed Kelly Ayotte and she won.

LMAO Sarah.

[patrick1]

According to Dick Morris, Gillibrand's seat is now in play...

Don't beleive anything that guy says. I long for that days when Alan Colmes actually called him out, now Hannity just hangs on his every word with no accountability.

Once again, NY-04 picks the worst possible choice to run against McCarthy. As such, McCarthy's stint in Congress will continue for sure.

Fran Becker has run before and he will put out good numbers in my neighborhood (he is from here).  He will also be able to capitalize on an enthusiasm gap that I think is palpable right now.  However, it the end this will not be able to put him over the top, only slightly closer.
I honestly think the other Republican fella was hurt by his youth- he looked about 15 in his campaign mailings.

[Smash255]

According to Dick Morris, Gillibrand's seat is now in play...

Don't beleive anything that guy says. I long for that days when Alan Colmes actually called him out, now Hannity just hangs on his every word with no accountability.

Once again, NY-04 picks the worst possible choice to run against McCarthy. As such, McCarthy's stint in Congress will continue for sure.

Fran Becker has run before and he will put out good numbers in my neighborhood (he is from here).  He will also be able to capitalize on an enthusiasm gap that I think is palpable right now.  However, it the end this will not be able to put him over the top, only slightly closer.
I honestly think the other Republican fella was hurt by his youth- he looked about 15 in his campaign mailings.

I don't think Fran has run before (unless he didn't make it out of the Primary in another year).  Are you sure you aren't thinking of his brother Greg, who ran against McCarthy in 98 and 2000??  As a side note his father Frank represented parts of what is now the 4th during parts of  the 50's and 60's (was the 3rd and 5th during that time)

Regardless, doesn't have a chance.  Probably does a bit better than Martins who lost 64-36, but won't get anywhere close to winning or making it competitive.

[cinyc]

I don't think Fran has run before (unless he didn't make it out of the Primary in another year).  Are you sure you aren't thinking of his brother Greg, who ran against McCarthy in 98 and 2000??  As a side note his father Frank represented parts of what is now the 4th during parts of  the 50's and 60's (was the 3rd and 5th during that time)

Regardless, doesn't have a chance.  Probably does a bit better than Martins who lost 64-36, but won't get anywhere close to winning or making it competitive.

Tom Suozzi was a shoe-in for reelection, too.  Republicans didn't have a chance.  Ditto County Executive Spano in Westchester.  That county's too Democratic; a Republican couldn't possibly have won the seat.  Yet one did.  And the political environment is worse for Democrats now than it was a year ago.

Long Island Democrats should be very wary, lest they go the way of Tom Suozzi.  If they haven't learned that lesson, they deserve to lose.

[patrick1]

According to Dick Morris, Gillibrand's seat is now in play...

Don't beleive anything that guy says. I long for that days when Alan Colmes actually called him out, now Hannity just hangs on his every word with no accountability.

Once again, NY-04 picks the worst possible choice to run against McCarthy. As such, McCarthy's stint in Congress will continue for sure.

Fran Becker has run before and he will put out good numbers in my neighborhood (he is from here).  He will also be able to capitalize on an enthusiasm gap that I think is palpable right now.  However, it the end this will not be able to put him over the top, only slightly closer.
I honestly think the other Republican fella was hurt by his youth- he looked about 15 in his campaign mailings.

I don't think Fran has run before (unless he didn't make it out of the Primary in another year).  Are you sure you aren't thinking of his brother Greg, who ran against McCarthy in 98 and 2000??  As a side note his father Frank represented parts of what is now the 4th during parts of  the 50's and 60's (was the 3rd and 5th during that time)

Regardless, doesn't have a chance.  Probably does a bit better than Martins who lost 64-36, but won't get anywhere close to winning or making it competitive.

Haha, yeah you are exactly right. I was thinking of Greg.  I kinda lump them all in together. His brother Hilary runs the largest real estate biz in town.  Those races were before I moved to this district.  I agree with you on the race,  I see it could be around 55-45.

[tmthforu94]

Strange video: http://videoshare.politico.com/singletitlevideo.php?bcpid=19407224001&bctid=610259329001

Neither O'Reilly or Palin can remember who she endorsed in New Hampshire. Or Palin didn't understand O'Reilly was taking to her. But O'Reilly also makes it sounds like the guy he's talking about is Lamontagne and that he was endorsed by Palin and that he won, when in fact Palin endorsed Kelly Ayotte and she won.

I don't think Palin could hear him, based on her facial expressions.

[Smash255]

I don't think Fran has run before (unless he didn't make it out of the Primary in another year).  Are you sure you aren't thinking of his brother Greg, who ran against McCarthy in 98 and 2000??  As a side note his father Frank represented parts of what is now the 4th during parts of  the 50's and 60's (was the 3rd and 5th during that time)

Regardless, doesn't have a chance.  Probably does a bit better than Martins who lost 64-36, but won't get anywhere close to winning or making it competitive.

Tom Suozzi was a shoe-in for reelection, too.  Republicans didn't have a chance.  Ditto County Executive Spano in Westchester.  That county's too Democratic; a Republican couldn't possibly have won the seat.  Yet one did.  And the political environment is worse for Democrats now than it was a year ago.

Long Island Democrats should be very wary, lest they go the way of Tom Suozzi.  If they haven't learned that lesson, they deserve to lose.

Ehh, I doubt Becker will have the PBA shilling for him the way Managno did.  Also the 4th is quite a bit more Democratic than Nassau as a whole, and one key factor that wasn't present last year is the top of the ticket, which will be a Democratic landslide.

[patrick1]

I don't think Fran has run before (unless he didn't make it out of the Primary in another year).  Are you sure you aren't thinking of his brother Greg, who ran against McCarthy in 98 and 2000??  As a side note his father Frank represented parts of what is now the 4th during parts of  the 50's and 60's (was the 3rd and 5th during that time)

Regardless, doesn't have a chance.  Probably does a bit better than Martins who lost 64-36, but won't get anywhere close to winning or making it competitive.

Tom Suozzi was a shoe-in for reelection, too.  Republicans didn't have a chance.  Ditto County Executive Spano in Westchester.  That county's too Democratic; a Republican couldn't possibly have won the seat.  Yet one did.  And the political environment is worse for Democrats now than it was a year ago.

Long Island Democrats should be very wary, lest they go the way of Tom Suozzi.  If they haven't learned that lesson, they deserve to lose.

Ehh, I doubt Becker will have the PBA shilling for him the way Managno did.  Also the 4th is quite a bit more Democratic than Nassau as a whole, and one key factor that wasn't present last year is the top of the ticket, which will be a Democratic landslide.

The landslide could also suppress turnout though. I don't see too many people enthusiastic about Cuomo.  That said I still don't think it is winnable.

[cinyc]

I don't think Fran has run before (unless he didn't make it out of the Primary in another year).  Are you sure you aren't thinking of his brother Greg, who ran against McCarthy in 98 and 2000??  As a side note his father Frank represented parts of what is now the 4th during parts of  the 50's and 60's (was the 3rd and 5th during that time)

Regardless, doesn't have a chance.  Probably does a bit better than Martins who lost 64-36, but won't get anywhere close to winning or making it competitive.

Tom Suozzi was a shoe-in for reelection, too.  Republicans didn't have a chance.  Ditto County Executive Spano in Westchester.  That county's too Democratic; a Republican couldn't possibly have won the seat.  Yet one did.  And the political environment is worse for Democrats now than it was a year ago.

Long Island Democrats should be very wary, lest they go the way of Tom Suozzi.  If they haven't learned that lesson, they deserve to lose.

Ehh, I doubt Becker will have the PBA shilling for him the way Managno did.  Also the 4th is quite a bit more Democratic than Nassau as a whole, and one key factor that wasn't present last year is the top of the ticket, which will be a Democratic landslide.

The landslide could also suppress turnout though. I don't see too many people enthusiastic about Cuomo.  That said I still don't think it is winnable.

Exactly.  If Democrats think Cuomo, Schumer and Gillibrand are perceived as ultra-safe, they just might not turn out on election day, which will have an effect on down-ballot races.  It's how Bloomberg ended up doing much worse than the polling suggested he would.  Down ballot Democrats should hope that one of those three races is at least competitive, i.e. within single-digits, so Democrats have an incentive to go out and vote.  Republicans will crawl over broken glass to vote the bums out at this point.

I am not saying McCarthy is vulnerable - she'll probably win.  But we should be keeping an eye on the race.  It's only a D+6 district in a county that's been unexpectedly turfing supposedly safe incumbents.  Had the guy with the money won, we would have been watching closer.  NY-04 is my NY sleeper pick to monitor.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Didn't someone do an analysis of the Suozzi loss and find that he won the NY-04 areas but lost big in the NY-03 areas? I swear I remember reading something about that.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Honestly, we should keep half-an-eye on any race D+6 or lower. There are bound to be unexpected surprises this year—and this includes scenarios where people like Titus win but someone like Bishop or even McCarthy loses.

I half-heartedly root against McCarthy every year. I feel for her loss, but she had no business making a congressional career out of it.