2010 Primaries Thread (It's all over now, baby blue)

[Tender Branson]

Last-minute primary polls:

Colorado (PPP):

Gov: 41-40 McInnis.
Sen: 49-43 Bennet, 45-43 Norton (!).

Connecticut (Quinnipiac):

Gov: 45-24 Lamont, 38-30-17 Foley-Fedele-Griebel.
Sen: 50-28-15 McMahon-Simmons-Schiff.

Georgia (Mason-Dixon):

Gov: 47-42 Handel.

The MN primary numbers (510 Likely DFL Voters):

Dayton: 43%
Kelliher: 27%
Entenza: 22%
Idusogie: 1%

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=d1f59a92-85c3-4355-93bb-8c888ff8faa0

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Oh, I mixed up the numbers for Lamont-Malloy. It's 45-42, not 45-24.

[cinyc]

Oh, I mixed up the numbers for Lamont-Malloy. It's 45-42, not 45-24.

Lamont-Malloy should be an interesting one.  Lamont is running ads on NYC local TV. I've yet to see a Malloy ad.  Same for Foley on the Republican side (has aired ads in NYC) versus Fedele and Griebel (have not) and McMahon (has aired a ton of ads in NYC) versus Schiff and Simmons (none), for that matter.  

[Eraserhead]

It looks like a lot of these are going to be very interesting, surprisingly enough. I wish I didn't have to work 6-11 tomorrow.

I guess I'll just pour through the thread when I get home.

[redcommander]

Here are my predictions for the Republican side on the high profile races. Democratic side will be posted later.

Colorado

Senate- Jane Norton
Governor- Dan Maes
Treasurer- JJ Ament
Colorado 3rd- Scott Tipton
Colorado 4th- Cory Gardner
Colorado 7th- Ryan Frazier

BTW Why is no Republican running for Lt. Governor in the state?

Connecticut
Senate- Linda McMahon
Governor- Tom Foley
Lt. Governor- Mark Boughton
Attorney General- Martha Dean

Connecticut 1st- Ann Brickley
Connecticut 2nd- Janet Peckinpaugh
Connecticut 4th- Dan Debicella
Connecticut 5th- Justin Bernier

Georgia

Governor- Karen Handel
Insurance Commissioner- Maria Sheffield
Georgia 7th- Rob Woodall
Georgia 9th- Tom Graves
Georgia 12th- Carl Smith
Georgia 13th- Deborah Honeycutt

Minnesota

Governor- Tom Emmer
Lt. Governor- Annette Meeks
Attorney General- Chris Barden
Minnesota 4- Teresa Collett
Minnesota 7- Lee Byburg

[Vepres]

BTW Why is no Republican running for Lt. Governor in the state?

The Lt. Governor runs on the same ticket as the Governor.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Last-minute primary polls:

Colorado (PPP):

Gov: 41-40 McInnis.
Sen: 49-43 Bennet, 45-43 Norton (!).

Connecticut (Quinnipiac):

Gov: 45-42 Lamont, 38-30-17 Foley-Fedele-Griebel.
Sen: 50-28-15 McMahon-Simmons-Schiff.

Georgia (Mason-Dixon):

Gov: 47-42 Handel.

After what happened to Lowden and Grayson, has Norton decided to do something to avoid such a gruesome fate? Why the sudden rebound?


What is PPP's record in Colorado?

[xavier110]

My guesses...

Minnesota DFL Gov: Dayton
Colorado GOP Gov: Maes
Colorado GOP Sen: Norton
Colorado Dem Sen: Romanoff
Georgia GOP Gov: Handel
Connecticut GOP Gov: Foley
Connecticut GOP Sen: McMahon
Connecticut Dem Gov: Lamont

This should be an enjoyable night! Some close races tomorrow..

[Lunar]

think Malloy has the CT party establishment & the momentum.

[redcommander]

Colorado

Senate- Andrew Romanoff

Connecticut

Governor- Ned Lamont
Lt. Governor- Nancy Wyman
Secretary of State- Denise Merrill
Comptroller- Kevin Lembo

Minnesota

Governor- Mark Dayton
Lt. Governor- Yvonne Prettner Solon
Minnesota 2nd- Shelley Madore

[Torie]

If Norton wins, that would be an amazing recovery. Maybe the protest, anti-establishment, tea party and Left protest vote for that matter on the Dem side is fading a bit. On the GOP side, it did not do that well in Tennessee.

Bennett has a late hit negative story about some spending program he pushed going really bad, but the bulk of the voters have already voted, and he was leading by a bit. If the poll were accurate, will this late hit still sink him?

[Eraserhead]

think Malloy has the CT party establishment & the momentum.

Didn't Lieberman have that too though (the latter part towards the very end)....

[Lunar]

think Malloy has the CT party establishment & the momentum.

Didn't Lieberman have that too though (the latter part towards the very end)....

Malloy doesn't have blind hatred towards himself.  I mean, today, hell, Liebers has more Republicans liking him than Independents in 2010, and Liebers voted for health care, financial reform, the stimulus, and is at the front of cap-n-trade.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

If Norton wins, that would be an amazing recovery. Maybe the protest, anti-establishment, tea party and Left protest vote for that matter on the Dem side is fading a bit. On the GOP side, it did not do that well in Tennessee.

Bennett has a late hit negative story about some spending program he pushed going really bad, but the bulk of the voters have already voted, and he was leading by a bit. If the poll were accurate, will this late hit still sink him?

Good. I think its about time. Though it would be nice if could rear its head at the end of the month in LA and AK. Getting rid of Vitter and Murkowski would make up for the trouble they caused us in my opinion. It would be nice if by Sept it were over. That way the Maine ladies, Hatch, and Corker will be safe from defeat. We can quietly switch out Hutchinson with Williams and Ensign with Hellar (that might require a primary though), and possibly Lugar with Daniels. We will be rid of scum like Specter, Vitter, Murkowski, and Bennett  yet keep those worthy of holding office and bring in some new blood of different varities (ranging from Kirks, and Castles to Blunt's and Toomey's). That would be a happy ending. Of course, that is why it will never happen.    (sorry, its the music talking)


It depends on what you mean by bulk. 50% maybe, more then that probably not.

[Lunar]

If Norton wins, that would be an amazing recovery.

Well, not AMAZING.  It's not like she had anything going for her beforehand, a former Lt. Governor isn't exactly a tier one candidate.  Buck's got a loud mouth, and a tracker finally picked it up on YouTube.

Bennett has a late hit negative story about some spending program he pushed going really bad, but the bulk of the voters have already voted, and he was leading by a bit. If the poll were accurate, will this late hit still sink him?

Gotta watch your T's on Bennet & Bennett if you're only referring to them by last name, because Bennett and Bennet are two entirely different Senators, but yeah, it's a mess of a story occurring at the worst time.  

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I was going to do a Minnesota megathread but realized it wouldn't be very interesting, just lots of incumbent vs. joke or two essentially identical candidates races.

Two State Senate seats worth looking at though are 50 and 67. 50 has the embattled DFL incumbent with some revealed ethical issues having his endorsement revoked and is facing a former State Rep who now has the party endorsement. Seat is heavily leaning DFL but could conceivably flip with a damaged candidate like the incumbent. 67's DFL primary is a literal free-for-all, there is NINE DFL candidates running, three of which are Hmong like the outgoing incumbent, one who is Indian, and one who is black. Seat is on the east side of St. Paul, completely safe DFL. Senate Seat 7 is a safe seat being vacated by Dayton's running mate, and there's a primary between a former Republican and standard liberal Democrat.

The GOP primary in House district 08B might be interesting too, the former mayor of the town of Mora and described moderate will face a 22-year old teabagger for the GOP nomination. Seat is fairly conservative but has a DFL incumbent who barely won last time. Can't think of a better opponent for him than some young teabagger nut. A few other seats have establishment candidate vs. teabagger matchups, including 29A being vacated by Randy Demmer to run against Tim Walz. The teabagger is actually kind of hot though in a very trashy way: http://www.kerrystoick.com Although from looking at her site it appears she has six kids even though from her timeline of education she's only about 33. Um, that's just...

[Vepres]

If Norton wins, that would be an amazing recovery. Maybe the protest, anti-establishment, tea party and Left protest vote for that matter on the Dem side is fading a bit. On the GOP side, it did not do that well in Tennessee.

At this point she embraces the far-right more than Buck.

[Eraserhead]

Who are people on here rooting for between Bennet and Romanoff?

[Lunar]

Who are people on here rooting for between Bennet and Romanoff?

I'm a Bennet fan, and I still am, but it's such a perplexing general election situation that it's hard to know which would be the best general election candidate at this point.  Pretty much all I care about is the GE here, and I have no clue who would do better.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I think Romanoff would be the stronger GE candidate, so him. Bennet isn't a bad guy but he's really out of his league, should've just agreed to be a placeholder which he would be fine for.

[Eraserhead]

Next question: Lamont or Malloy, Atlas Forum?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Gotta stick with Lamont out of residual loyalty.

[Eraserhead]

Gotta stick with Lamont out of residual loyalty.

Yeah, same here. I think CT is probably a D pickup in the general election no matter what... even if the other dude would be slightly better candidate.

[Torie]

If Norton wins, that would be an amazing recovery.

Well, not AMAZING.  It's not like she had anything going for her beforehand, a former Lt. Governor isn't exactly a tier one candidate.  Buck's got a loud mouth, and a tracker finally picked it up on YouTube.

Bennett has a late hit negative story about some spending program he pushed going really bad, but the bulk of the voters have already voted, and he was leading by a bit. If the poll were accurate, will this late hit still sink him?

Gotta watch your T's on Bennet & Bennett if you're only referring to them by last name, because Bennett and Bennet are two entirely different Senators, but yeah, it's a mess of a story occurring at the worst time.  

Hey, I might be related to the Colorado guy.  The last name of my great, great grandfather was Bennet, and that spelling is really unusual. Maybe I should send him an email.  Also, come to think of it, my grand uncle from the same family (grandson of the one mentioned above), whom I actually knew, who directed some 450 films or some such crazy number. But I know he is not descended from the film guy.

[Tender Branson]

My predictions:

GA Runoff

Deal: 54.8%
Handel: 45.2%

CT Governor & Senate

Foley: 36.7%
Fedele: 35.9%
Griebel: 27.4%

Malloy: 50.2%
Lamont: 49.8%

McMahon: 51.1%
Simmons: 29.7%
Schiff: 19.2%

MN Governor (Democrats)

Dayton: 38.1%
Kelliher: 34.7%
Entenza: 25.8%
Idusogie: 1.4%

CO Governor & Senate

Maes: 51.4%
McInnis: 48.6%

Bennet: 50.7%
Romanoff: 49.3%

Norton: 51.9%
Buck: 48.1%