CA-GOV: Newsom vs. ???

[Coastal Elitist]

Newsom is the favorite, but there is a long ways to go. I have a feeling his previous affair will be brought up and it could cause his poll numbers to slip. I do think a California megathred should be created so there aren't so many individual posts.

[Coastal Elitist]

I don't think it's guaranteed that Newsom will make it through to the general election. He's only at 19% overall with 35% of the Democratic vote according to the last poll, which isn't great considering the primary is in 5 months. It is true that in last year's Senate race Harris was at 19% in early polls, but that was over a year before the primary. You would expect his poll numbers to be better than that. There were a lot of undecided voters in the most recent poll: 29% and 23% of those polled selected different candidates than the top 6.

Also in the latest poll it should be noted that 37% of Republicans were undecided opposed to 18% of Democrats and 40% of Independents. Allen was only 1 point behind Villaraigosa and there are more Republicans that are undecided. If the top 4 Democrats split the vote a Republican should make the top 2.

[Coastal Elitist]

For those following the race. Their is another debate with the top 6 candidates at UCLA on January 25th at 5:30 PM. It is hosted by the Latino Community Foundation and will air live on Univision.

It's free to attend. https://www.eventbrite.com/e/the-2018-gubernatorial-forum-tickets-39848240159

[Coastal Elitist]

There was another forum tonight at UCLA between the top 6. It's on Youtube for anyone who wants to watch it.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=513&v=RcWa-X0RxwA

Doug Ose was left out again, hopefully he'll drop out.

[Coastal Elitist]

There was another forum tonight at UCLA between the top 6. It's on Youtube for anyone who wants to watch it.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=513&v=RcWa-X0RxwA

Doug Ose was left out again, hopefully he'll drop out.

If he does, Travis Allen has a good chance to move ahead of Villaraigosa. Check out the most recent poll.

I'm not sure what happened to your other thread, but I made a google doc to show how easily this could become R vs R if the Democrats can't decide which candidate to get behind. I used the numbers from the Suvey USA poll. Newsom would have to lose support for this to happen, but it is possible.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/11R2CM4AwYVW5kCeVNYQtZgpPnF7JFYWe42eutd9h-Os/edit?usp=sharing

In this scenario, assuming Ose fails to gain support, Allen and Cox Receive 85% of the Republican vote. While Newsom, Villariagosa and Chiang split most of the Democrat vote, with Eastin picking up 12%. Also this assumes that 15% of voters will vote for other candidates besides the current top 6.

In this scenario the results look like this:
1   Travis Allen          1,022,122   17.45%
2   John Cox                  989,906   16.90%
3   Gavin Newsom          907,902   15.50%
4   John Chiang          856,356   14.62%
5   Antonio Villariagosa   849,327   14.50%
6      Delaine Eastin          353,203   6.03%   
7   Other                  878,615   15.00%
   Total                          5,857,430   

[Coastal Elitist]

There was another forum tonight at UCLA between the top 6. It's on Youtube for anyone who wants to watch it.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=513&v=RcWa-X0RxwA

Doug Ose was left out again, hopefully he'll drop out.

If he does, Travis Allen has a good chance to move ahead of Villaraigosa. Check out the most recent poll.

I'm not sure what happened to your other thread, but I made a google doc to show how easily this could become R vs R if the Democrats can't decide which candidate to get behind. I used the numbers from the Suvey USA poll. Newsom would have to lose support for this to happen, but it is possible.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/11R2CM4AwYVW5kCeVNYQtZgpPnF7JFYWe42eutd9h-Os/edit?usp=sharing

In this scenario, assuming Ose fails to gain support, Allen and Cox Receive 85% of the Republican vote. While Newsom, Villariagosa and Chiang split most of the Democrat vote, with Eastin picking up 12%. Also this assumes that 15% of voters will vote for other candidates besides the current top 6.

In this scenario the results look like this:
1   Travis Allen          1,022,122   17.45%
2   John Cox                  989,906   16.90%
3   Gavin Newsom          907,902   15.50%
4   John Chiang          856,356   14.62%
5   Antonio Villariagosa   849,327   14.50%
6      Delaine Eastin          353,203   6.03%   
7   Other                  878,615   15.00%
   Total                          5,857,430   

This is ridiculous, the California Democratic Party may be stupid enough to let the Top-two primary screw them out of a few comptitive House races (CA-39, CA-45, CA-48), but they will never let two Republicans make the general election runoff for governor. Gavin Newson will make the runoff no matter what due to the fact he has more money and name recognition then any of the other candidates combined (Democrats and Republicans), and he will either face Villariagosa or a Republican (most likely Cox due to his ability to self-fund) in the runoff.

You say that, but parties make mistakes all the time. Also Newsom doesn't have that great of name recognition. If you take a random poll of Californian's walking on the street most probably don't know who the Lieutenant Governor is.

[Coastal Elitist]

I really don't understand why there is 'hype' right now around Allen. I mean look at his fundraising:



Now, in a state as big and as diverse as California, it is understandably expensive to run a campaign. This is not even including the fact that the twin Media Markets of SF and LA make it the most expensive non-swing state to run a campaign. Money in California therefore traditionally has acted as a hard ceiling - if you can't run fund campaign, people won't know who you are, and you won't get over 5%.

This is why despite the concern trolls, we are still on track for D v D.

I don't know why you think this race is on track for D vs D. In the last poll Allen was basically tied with Villariagosa with more undecided Republicans than Democrats. With more top Democratic candidates there is less Democratic vote to go around. Only 18% of Democrats were undecided in the last poll compared to 37% of Republicans and 40% of Independents. If Cox or Allen can get the majority of the Republican support this race will definitely be D vs R. You need to actually look at the numbers. This is a different race from 2016's Senate race. None of those Republican candidates actually really tried to campaign or participated in debates.

[Coastal Elitist]

I really don't understand why there is 'hype' right now around Allen. I mean look at his fundraising:



Now, in a state as big and as diverse as California, it is understandably expensive to run a campaign. This is not even including the fact that the twin Media Markets of SF and LA make it the most expensive non-swing state to run a campaign. Money in California therefore traditionally has acted as a hard ceiling - if you can't run fund campaign, people won't know who you are, and you won't get over 5%.

This is why despite the concern trolls, we are still on track for D v D.

The gubernatorial race is likely D vs. D. Is the Senate race more uncertain? The latest Senate poll (which is the only one with more than two declared candidates) indicates a D vs. R race. The hypothetical Senate primary poll with Kevin de Leon and John Cox shows a Feinstein vs. Cox runoff.

Latest Senate poll:
Dianne Feinstein (D): 34%
Timothy Charles Kalemkarian (R): 6%
Caren Lancona (R): 5%
Patrick Little (R): 5%
Stephen James Schrader (R): 5%
Kevin de Leon (D): 4%
Others: 10%

Primary poll with John Cox:
Dianne Feinstein (D): 40%
John Cox (R): 32%
Kevin de Leon (D): 14%
Undecided: 14%

Due to the high number of undecided Republicans compared to Democrats I would say both races are favored to be D vs R. Especially the Senate because Feinstein in an incumbent and it will be hard for any Democrat to run a campaign against her and gain a substantial amount of the vote.

[Coastal Elitist]

I still don't understand why people think two Democrats will make the runoff. If you look at the polls there are more Republicans undecided with most of the Democratic vote share taken and Cox is right behind Villaraigosa. If the last poll is to be believed 55% of the vote is going to the top 4 Democratic candidates, which doesn't leave much left and only 22% to the top 3 Republicans.

[Coastal Elitist]

Chiang is surging. One poll shows him tied with Villaraigosa.

I hope SurveyUSA does another poll soon. I'd like to see the breakdown of the vote. This poll only has 15% of the vote going to the Republicans with 29% of the vote undecided or other it doesn't say. Remember Governor is different then Senate. I expect the vote split to be 60% Democrat and 40% Republican

[Coastal Elitist]

51 candidates are now in the race.

The legislature needs to find some way to cap the number of candidates that can run. This is a ridiculous number and the voter information pamphlet is going to be ridiculously long. I don't understand why people that have no chance to win even bother entering.

[Coastal Elitist]

http://www.latimes.com/politics/essential/la-pol-ca-essential-politics-updates-gop-candidate-for-california-governor-1518478473-htmlstory.html

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Damaging?

Highly Unlikely that people will care. This was 11 years ago, he's changed his mind since then. Also it was before California voted for Proposition 8, when a lot of people were still anti gay.

[Coastal Elitist]

Do party endorsements even matter? My state assembly representative is a Republican in a Democratic district of PVI +12. The Democrat in the last election had the party endorsement and President Obama's and still lost. My district voted 64.5-29.2% for Clinton.

[Coastal Elitist]

Ose dropped out.

Good to hear.

[Coastal Elitist]

Allen is toast. He was accused of sexual harassment.

Link please?

Here you go https://www.mercurynews.com/2018/02/05/can-travis-allens-campaign-for-governor-survive-sexual-harassment-allegations/
It doesn't seem like that big of a deal to me.

[Coastal Elitist]

It has been a long time since the last poll for this race. Also 79 candidates have filed statements of intention to run for governor, which is an absurd amount. With Renteria entering the race for the Democrats and Ose withdrawing for the Republicans I don't see how two Democrats can make the runoff. There are just to many top Democrats in this race.

[Coastal Elitist]

Forgive my nitpicking, but do we need an update whenever another one of the 70+ candidates enters this race?

Only if they're Democrats because it might cause Villaraigosa to miss the runoff.

Like that could happen. He's tied with Newsom now, with momentum on his side.

He's not tied with Newsom. Two of the three latest polls show Villaraigosa with only 11%. Chiang is tied for second in the latest poll.

Yeah I don't understand why everyone is focusing on that one poll, when two others taken at around the same time are different. It seems like they stopped polling this race due to that.

[Coastal Elitist]

There's another forum this Sunday at 10:30 AM. Interestingly Newsom is not attending, but the other five main candidates are. There is a link in the article where you can submit your own questions.

http://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/news/politics/sd-me-governor-candidates-20180314-story.html

[Coastal Elitist]

Amanda Renteria who just entered the race, says Gavin Newsom's past affair should disqualifiy him from being governor and that he should resign his current position. Everyone is really starting to go after Newsom.

http://www.sacbee.com/news/politics-government/capitol-alert/article205313919.html

Also new poll from David Binder Research has John Cox in second place:
https://www.sfchronicle.com/politics/article/In-governor-s-race-polls-Cox-makes-a-case-for-12757085.php

Newsom 26%
Cox 16%
Chiang 13%
Villariagosa 12%
Allen 10%
Eastin 7%
Renteria 4%
Undecided 12%

Also in the article it mentions that an internal poll from the Cox campaign has Newsom at 45.1% and Cox at 44.6% in a general election race.

[Coastal Elitist]

Ose dropped out.

Why did the strongest GOP candidate leave the race?

He was only polling at 4% and wasn't raising any money. Cox is the strongest because he's actually raising money.

[Coastal Elitist]

So, I know some people don't trust polls, because they aren't ever polled. I actually was yesterday. I was sent an online survey. It asked about approval for President, Governor, Senator and select gubernatorial candidates. It also played ads for Chiang, Villariagosa, Newsom and Cox and asked what I thought of each. It asked specific questions about Newsom and Villariagosa. It also asked who I would vote for in the primary and how enthusiastic I was about voting. It asked me four times throughout the survey who I would for and if the campaign ads I saw would make me change my mind.

The candidates to choose from were in order:
Lieutenant Governor/Businessman, Gavin Newsom (D)
Akinyemi Agdebe (D)
CEO/Educator/Artist, Klement Tinaj (D)
California State Treasurer, John Chiang (D)
Virtual Reality Manager, Shubham Goel (No party)
Retired Medical Doctor, J. Bribiesca (D)
COO, Department of Justice, Amanda Renteria (D)
Servant Leader, Jeffrey Edward Taylor (No party)
Environmental Organization Executive, Michael Schellenberger (D)
Blockchain Startup CEO, Jefferson Cares (D)
Bridget B. Duffy (G)
Businessman, Antonio Villariagosa (D)
Zoltan Istvan (L)
Retired Educator, Albert Caesar Mezzetti (No Party)
Business Owner/Truck Driver, Johnny Watenburg (R)
Businessman/Taxpayer Advocate, John H. Cox (R)
Policomedian, Peter Y Liu (R)
Assemblyman/Businessman, Travis Allen (R)
CEO/Business owner, Hakan Mikado (No Party)
Entrepreneur/Economist/Father, Robert Davidson Griffiths (D)
Education/Youth Advocate, Delaine Eastin (D)

Lastly there was a choice for Other options, undecided and would not vote. I thought I would share this and see if anyone else was surveyed.

[Coastal Elitist]

Another poll for March from Public Policy Institute of California has Newsom first and Cox surging into second. 24% of voters are still undecided and most are Republicans and Independents. This race is getting closer and close to D vs R, like I said from the beginning.

http://www.ppic.org/wp-content/uploads/s-318mbs.pdf

[Coastal Elitist]

The California Voter Information Guide is out and 27 candidates have been confirmed for Governor. The ones with an asterick have a statement in the guide. It's interesting that Newsom, Villariagosa and Chiang don't have statements.

Gavin Newsom Democratic
Robert C. Newman II*, Republican
Delaine Eastin*, Democratic
Klement Tinaj*, Democratic
Jeffrey Edward Taylor*, No Party Preference
Peter Y. Liu*, Republican
Gloria Estela La Riva*, Peace and Freedom
Yvonne Girard*, Republican
Robert Davidson Griffis*, Democratic
Shubham Goel*, No Party Preference
Thomas Jefferson Cares*, Democratic
Christopher N. Carlson*, Green
John Chiang, Democratic
John H. Cox*, Republican
Josh Jones*, Green
J. Bribiesca*, Democratic
Zoltan Istvan*, Libertarian
Amanda Renteria*, Democratic
Travis Allen*, Republican
Akinyemi Agbede*, Democratic
Desmond Silveira*, No Party Preference
Michael Shellenberger*, Democratic
Nickolas Wildstar*, Libertarian
Johnny Wattenburg*, No Party Preference
Antonio Villaraigosa, Democratic
Albert Caesar Mezetti*, No Party Preference
Hakan “Hawk” Mikado, No Party Preference

[Coastal Elitist]

Does Eastin win any counties in the primary or runoff (if she makes it)?

She won't win any. On another note tonight at 6:30 PM is another governor debate. It's the first one on TV at least in Los Angeles it's on NBC4 at 7:00 PM and it's being streamed live on their Facebook page and website.

[Coastal Elitist]

What is Allen's deal is he really moderate and just faking right now?

Travis Allen is sadly my assemblyman (with Dana Rohrabacher as my congressman as well ). He’s more moderate than his rhetoric right now suggests. He’s trying to rally the MAGA crowd to his side first to make the runoff.

It's really sad to watch both Allen and Cox fighting for the right wing vote when both are more moderate than that and in order to actually have a shot there going to have to go more towards the middle if one of them makes it to the final election.