I think 1/6 will complicate things with moderates but it will have to do with Biden's approval ratings. If things continue to go South I think he can pull it off, but a lot can change (for better or worse) in 3 years.
I am still thinking that Donald Trump will do a lot better in 2024 even with the January 6 stuff. I would say that the map against Joe Biden will be 294-244 in favor of Donald Trump and the map against Kamala Harris will be 345-193 in favor of Donald Trump. Under both scenarios, I feel that Donald Trump will win the popular vote perhaps by a 1984-style margin due to historically high levels of support for a Republican nominee by Hispanics, rural voters, and working class voters from inner city areas.
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