CA-Redfield & Wilton: Biden +36 (user search)
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  CA-Redfield & Wilton: Biden +36 (search mode)
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Author Topic: CA-Redfield & Wilton: Biden +36  (Read 1114 times)
Skill and Chance
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« on: August 14, 2020, 04:00:02 PM »

It's quite important as far as the national popular vote goes.

The national popular vote means absolutely nothing.

Still, we get lots of polls of the national margin. If California went for Clinton by 30 points and now Biden is leading by 36, helps us weight the geography of the polls showing Biden overperforming Clinton by 8 nationally.

This, basically.  California is not as good a fit for Biden as it was for Clinton (and VPs don't seem to boost margins locally like they used to), but Biden is also up way more than +2 nationally right now.  Suggests Biden may not have as much of an EC problem as Clinton did if it tightens up. 
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