CA-Redfield & Wilton: Biden +36
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Author Topic: CA-Redfield & Wilton: Biden +36  (Read 1078 times)
GeorgiaModerate
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« on: August 14, 2020, 02:21:53 PM »
California: Redfield & Wilton, Aug. 9, 1904 LV

Biden 61
Trump 25


Why would anyone poll California at this point?
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President Johnson
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« Reply #1 on: August 14, 2020, 02:34:50 PM »
Freedom state
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Property Representative of the Harold Holt Swimming Centre
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« Reply #2 on: August 14, 2020, 02:36:17 PM »
It's quite important as far as the national popular vote goes.
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Roll Roons
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« Reply #3 on: August 14, 2020, 02:49:13 PM »
Quote from: TheTide on August 14, 2020, 02:36:17 PM
It's quite important as far as the national popular vote goes.

The national popular vote means absolutely nothing.
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SaneDemocrat
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« Reply #4 on: August 14, 2020, 02:53:06 PM »
Quote from: Roll Roons on August 14, 2020, 02:49:13 PM
Quote from: TheTide on August 14, 2020, 02:36:17 PM
It's quite important as far as the national popular vote goes.

The national popular vote means absolutely nothing.
Yes it does this election. Harder for Barr&Roberts if it is Biden+6 vs Biden+3
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The Mikado
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« Reply #5 on: August 14, 2020, 02:54:04 PM »
Quote from: GeorgiaModerate on August 14, 2020, 02:21:53 PM
California: Redfield & Wilton, Aug. 9, 1904 LV

Biden 61
Trump 25


Why would anyone poll California at this point?

There's several important House races and knowing Biden is doing 5ish points better than HRC statewide has ramifications for eg CA-25.
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Rand
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« Reply #6 on: August 14, 2020, 03:01:41 PM »
California is just happy to get rid of the radical, foreign born Supreme Commander of Al Qaeda Kamala Harris.
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Crumpets
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« Reply #7 on: August 14, 2020, 03:54:38 PM »
« Edited: August 14, 2020, 04:03:30 PM by Crumpets »
Quote from: Roll Roons on August 14, 2020, 02:49:13 PM
Quote from: TheTide on August 14, 2020, 02:36:17 PM
It's quite important as far as the national popular vote goes.

The national popular vote means absolutely nothing.

Still, we get lots of polls of the national margin. If California went for Clinton by 30 points and now Biden is leading by 36, it helps us weight the geography of the polls showing Biden overperforming Clinton by 8 nationally.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #8 on: August 14, 2020, 04:00:02 PM »
Quote from: Crumpets on August 14, 2020, 03:54:38 PM
Quote from: Roll Roons on August 14, 2020, 02:49:13 PM
Quote from: TheTide on August 14, 2020, 02:36:17 PM
It's quite important as far as the national popular vote goes.

The national popular vote means absolutely nothing.

Still, we get lots of polls of the national margin. If California went for Clinton by 30 points and now Biden is leading by 36, helps us weight the geography of the polls showing Biden overperforming Clinton by 8 nationally.

This, basically.  California is not as good a fit for Biden as it was for Clinton (and VPs don't seem to boost margins locally like they used to), but Biden is also up way more than +2 nationally right now.  Suggests Biden may not have as much of an EC problem as Clinton did if it tightens up. 
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S019
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« Reply #9 on: August 14, 2020, 04:02:03 PM »
Clinton won this by just over 30 points for the record, Orange County is completely gone for Republicans with these numbers (it would be around Biden+12)
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Interlocutor is just not there yet
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« Reply #10 on: August 14, 2020, 04:39:06 PM »
« Edited: August 16, 2020, 02:54:43 PM by Monstro »
Quote from: Speaker of the Lincoln Council S019 on August 14, 2020, 04:02:03 PM
Clinton won this by just over 30 points for the record, Orange County is completely gone for Republicans with these numbers (it would be around Biden+12)

OC was completely gone for Republicans when the former Mayor of San Francisco edged out an Escondido-area businessman
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #11 on: August 14, 2020, 07:03:46 PM »
Quote from: Skill and Chance on August 14, 2020, 04:00:02 PM
This, basically. California is not as good a fit for Biden as it was for Clinton (and VPs don't seem to boost margins locally like they used to), but Biden is also up way more than +2 nationally right now.  Suggests Biden may not have as much of an EC problem as Clinton did if it tightens up.  

I really don’t think there’s anything that would support this theory. Quite frankly, Biden isn’t a worse fit than Clinton for any state.
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #12 on: August 14, 2020, 08:08:02 PM »
Quote from: MT Treasurer on August 14, 2020, 07:03:46 PM
Quote from: Skill and Chance on August 14, 2020, 04:00:02 PM
This, basically. California is not as good a fit for Biden as it was for Clinton (and VPs don't seem to boost margins locally like they used to), but Biden is also up way more than +2 nationally right now.  Suggests Biden may not have as much of an EC problem as Clinton did if it tightens up.  

I really don’t think there’s anything that would support this theory. Quite frankly, Biden isn’t a worse fit than Clinton for any state.

Agreed. I happen to think that Biden is a bitter fit than Clinton just about everywhere, for reasons that have been litigated at length.
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Terry the Fat Shark
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« Reply #13 on: August 15, 2020, 02:37:49 AM »


The end result.
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politicallefty
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« Reply #14 on: August 16, 2020, 03:25:02 AM »
Quote from: Crumpets on August 14, 2020, 03:54:38 PM
Quote from: Roll Roons on August 14, 2020, 02:49:13 PM
Quote from: TheTide on August 14, 2020, 02:36:17 PM
It's quite important as far as the national popular vote goes.

The national popular vote means absolutely nothing.

Still, we get lots of polls of the national margin. If California went for Clinton by 30 points and now Biden is leading by 36, it helps us weight the geography of the polls showing Biden overperforming Clinton by 8 nationally.

It doesn't change the popular vote as much as people think. California cast about 10% of all votes in the presidential race in 2016. It's realistic to assume that number will be about the same this year. Even having Biden win the state by 40% would only yield an additional 1% margin on the national popular vote. I have a hard time seeing the margin get that high. But it is that potentiality plus Texas being a dead-heat that leads some people like Wasserman to say that the race could go to Trump even if he loses by 4% nationwide. I see the apparent logic in that, but I think 3% is the realistic upper limit of another split in the EV and PV for this year.
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ElectionAtlas
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« Reply #15 on: August 18, 2020, 09:16:12 PM »
New Poll: California President by Redfield & Wilton on 2020-08-09

Summary: D: 61%, R: 25%, U: 9%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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