Australia 2007

[Filuwaúrdjan]

It's gonna be near to a Labor landslide!

I'd like to believe that, I really would. But the Coalition always rallies during the campaign, like they've got a pact with the devil or something.
Still; right now it does look possible that, even if that does happen, the ALP will still have a good shot at winning.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

On that poll (and assuming uniform national swing) the Coalition would be left with just 19 seats (they have 87 now IIRC).
Howard himself would lose his seat; though boundary changes mean that that would be very likely on a much smaller swing.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Excellent link: http://psephos.adam-carr.net/countries/a/australia/guide1.shtml

[Filuwaúrdjan]

This is less than 4 weeks out from an election being called. This is VERY VERY bad for the coalition.

So they need the polls to swing about five points in their direction in a couple of months? That's not fair off from being dead in the water...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

When was the last time the ALP took a majority of primary votes? The '40's?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The Liberal Party is only called that as a tribute to Alfred Deakin; the name has nothing to do with ideology.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The Liberal party was definitely based on a foundation of economic liberalism - free enterprise etc etc. Mind you it was under Menzies in the 50s' that the Australian welfare state really was established.

True enough; though (or so thinketh I) they wouldn't have called themselves the Liberal Party were it not for the Deakin legacy (if that's the right way of phrasing it).

[Filuwaúrdjan]

When would they have to call the election by the latest?

December IIRC

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Even Kevin Rudd believes it will be down to the wire,

Tony Blair thought that in 1997.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Even Kevin Rudd believes it will be down to the wire,

Tony Blair thought that in 1997.

Labour also had the humiliation of 1992 to remember.

And the ALP that of 2005. A heavier defeat than that suffered by Labour in 1992.

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Maybe. But in Blair's case at least he really did think that the election was going to be fairly close.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

State results from the last few Newspolls:

NSW: 52% ALP, 32% Lib, 5% Nats, 5% Greenies [Two Party: ALP 59%]
SA: 52% ALP, 38% Lib, 3% Greenies [Two Party: ALP 58%]
Qld: 52% ALP, 33% Lib, 7% Nats, 3% Greenies [Two Party: ALP 56%]
Vic: 45% ALP, 40% Lib, 7% Greenies, 2% Nats [Two Party: ALP 54%]
WA: 46% Lib, 43% ALP, 4% Greenies [Two Party: Lib 51%]

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The Independent M.P for Calare, Peter Andren, has died. Andren had been diagnosed with cancer back in August and wasn't running for re-election.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Recent polls: ALP 54% (Galaxy) and ALP 53% (Newspoll). ALP primary vote 47% in the latter, not sure about the former.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Some outfit called EMRS has done a poll of Tasmania:

Denison: ALP 70%
Franklin: ALP 59%
Lyons: ALP 58%
Bass: ALP 55% (with the Greenies doing very well on primary votes; due to the whole pulp mill thing)
Braddon: ALP 52%

59% for Tasmania as a whole.

Poll was conducted between 1st and 6th of November.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Newspoll: 55/45...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Some outfit called EMRS has done a poll of Tasmania:

Denison: ALP 70%
Franklin: ALP 59%
Lyons: ALP 58%
Bass: ALP 55% (with the Greenies doing very well on primary votes; due to the whole pulp mill thing)
Braddon: ALP 52%

59% for Tasmania as a whole.

Poll was conducted between 1st and 6th of November.

They've done another one.

The only numbers that we've got for now is for Bass; ALP 52%. Nothing for the other seats seems to have been published yet, but by the sound of it Bass is the only one that's even slightly close.

More details when they can be found.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Really? Because from what I've read the Liberals have pretty much conceeded Bass already (not sure on Braddon though.)

Being down 52/48 with about a week to go and with very little hope of outside help is pretty much dead. Not quite, but almost.

The collapse of the Mersey hospital bribe may have damaged the Liberals in Braddon.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Looks like 52% in Bass, 56% in Braddon, 64% in Denison, over 60% in Franklin (but can't work out what last number be) and 61% in Lyons.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

If it is 66% that's quite surprising; the general assumption was that Quick's retirement would cause the swing in Franklin to be lower than average for Tasmania.

I saw the primaries at the state level for the poll - what's interesting is that the Green's PV is 17%.

Think they could win a second Senate seat in Tasmania?

No; I think they would need about a quarter of the vote to get two Senate seats. Labor should pick up the third Liberal seat though.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Frankin is 66%

[Filuwaúrdjan]

A new poll shows North Sydney at 50/50...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Is North Sydney a generally Liberal stronghold/area?

Yes. You could say that. Yes. If North Sydney falls it would be the rough equivilent of Labour in the U.K gaining Cities of London & Westminster or the Socialists in France gaining... ooh... let's say Paris 3rd.
Polnut could tell you better as he be from that general area.

Btw, Bennelong is in the northern half of Sydney, but not in the North Sydney division.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

So a Labor breakthrough here is like the RPR breakthrough in the Nievre back in 1993?

Basically, yes. If it happens.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

New newspoll; 54/46. Isn't it interesting that almost all polls this election have said basically the same thing?

Oh, and a newspoll poll of marginals (note that marginals polls tend to be rather less accurate than normal polls; even in Australia) indicates that the swing will be lower in Victoria than in NSW/Queensland/SA.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

He tried to play old-school labor class-politics...

...while also pandering to various middle class liberal lefty interest groups. Meaning that by the end of the campaign he appealed to no one.