Australia General Discussion 2.0

[AustralianSwingVoter]

MAYO

Party	Candidate	Votes	%	±
Centre Alliance	Rebekha Sharkie	39,369	44.4	+9.5
Liberal	Georgina Downer	33,219	37.4	−0.3
Greens	Major Sumner	7,898	8.9	+0.8
Labor	Reg Coutts	5,370	6.1	−7.5
Christian Democrats	Tracey-Lee Cane	1,348	1.5	+1.5
Liberal Democrats	Stephen Humble	809	0.9	−0.3
People	Kelsie Harfouche	716	0.8	+0.8
	Total formal votes	88,729	96.5	−0.6
	Informal votes	3,246	3.5	+0.6
	Turnout	91,975	85.4	−8.8
Two-party-preferred result
Liberal	Georgina Downer	49,375	55.6	+0.3
Labor	Reg Coutts	39,354	44.4	−0.3
Two-candidate-preferred result
Centre Alliance	Rebekha Sharkie	51,042	57.5	+2.6
Liberal	Georgina Downer	37,687	42.5	−2.6
Centre Alliance retain		Swing	+2.6

[AustralianSwingVoter]

LONGMAN

Party	Candidate	Votes	%	±
Labor	Susan Lamb	35,203	39.8	+4.5
Liberal National	Trevor Ruthenberg	26,170	29.6	−9.4
One Nation	Matthew Stephen	14,061	15.9	+6.5
Greens	Gavin Behrens	4,264	4.8	+0.4
Independent	Jackie Perkins	2,379	2.7	+2.7
Liberal Democrats	Lloyd Russell	1,762	2.0	+2.0
Country	Blair Verrier	1,387	1.6	+1.6
Democratic Labour	Gregory Bell	1,043	1.2	+1.2
Science	James Noonan	970	1.1	+1.1
Australia First	Jim Saleam	709	0.8	+0.8
People	John Reece	420	0.5	+0.5
	Total formal votes	88,368	93.9	+2.5
	Informal votes	5,707	6.1	−2.5
	Turnout	94,075	84.2	−7.5
Labor	Susan Lamb	48,116	54.4	+3.7
Liberal National	Trevor Ruthenberg	40,252	45.6	−3.7
Labor retain		Swing	+3.7

[AustralianSwingVoter]

PERTH

Party	Candidate	Votes	%	±
Labor	Patrick Gorman	22,812	39.3	+2.0
Greens	Caroline Perks	10,908	18.8	+1.7
Independent	Paul Collins	5,516	9.5	+9.5
Liberal Democrats	Wesley Du Preez	3,880	6.7	+5.0
Western Australia	Julie Matheson	3,123	5.4	+5.4
Independent	Jim Grayden	2,565	4.4	+4.4
Animal Justice	Nicole Arielli	1,815	3.1	+3.1
Independent	Ian Britza	1,705	2.9	+2.9
Christians	Ellen Joubert	1,474	2.5	+2.5
Science	Aaron Hammond	1,002	1.7	+1.7
Mental Health	Ben Mullings	930	1.6	+1.6
#Sustainable	Colin Scott	774	1.3	+1.3
Liberty Alliance	Tony Robinson	682	1.2	+1.2
CEC	Barry Mason	596	1.0	+1.0
People	Gabriel Harfouche	222	0.4	+0.4
	Total formal votes	58,004	89.9	−6.3
	Informal votes	6,486	10.1	+6.3
	Turnout	64,490	64.0	−24.0
Labor	Patrick Gorman	36,601	63.1	+9.8
Greens	Caroline Perks	21,403	36.9	+36.9
Labor retain		Swing	+9.8

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Braddon

Brett Whiteley	39.3	39.3	39.9	40.3	40.6	42.8	47.7
Justine Keay	37.0	37.1	37.2	37.6	39.1	40.5	52.3
Craig Garland	10.6	10.7	10.9	12.1	13.6	16.7
Brett Neal	4.8	4.9	5.1	5.7	6.7
Jarrod Edwards	4.0	4.0	4.1	4.4
Donna Gibbons	2.4	2.5	2.8
Joshua Boag	1.3	1.4
Bruno Strangio	0.7

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Fremantle

Josh Wilson	52.6	52.8	54.0	54.9	56.1	73.3
Dorinda Cox	16.5	16.6	19.0	20.2	21.7
John Gray	14.1	14.3	14.9	16.4	22.2	26.7
Mark Staer	5.3	5.4	5.8
Katrina Love	5.2	5.3
Jason Spanbroek	5.1	5.6	6.3	8.6
James Harfouche	1.1

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Longman

Susan Lamb	39.8	39.9	40.0	40.1	40.6	40.8	41.1	42.0	46.0	54.4
Trevor Ruthenberg	29.6	29.6	29.7	29.7	29.8	30.0	30.6	31.2	32.7	45.6
Matthew Stephen	15.9	16.0	16.1	16.3	16.4	16.8	17.2	19.6	21.3
Gavin Behrens	4.8	4.9	4.9	5.2	5.3	5.7	5.9	7.1
Jackie Perkins	2.7	2.8	2.9	3.3	3.5	3.9	5.2
Lloyd Russell	2.0	2.0	2.1	2.2	2.4	2.7
Blair Verrier	1.6	1.6	1.7	1.9	2.0
Gregory Bell	1.2	1.2	1.3	1.3
James Noonan	1.1	1.1	1.2
Jim Saleam	0.8	0.9
John Reece	0.5

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Mayo

Rebekha Sharkie	44.4	44.5	44.7	45.2	48.8	57.5
Georgina Downer	37.4	37.5	37.9	38.7	39.5	42.5
Major Sumner	8.9	9.1	9.2	9.7	11.7
Reg Coutts	6.1	6.1	6.3	6.4
Tracey-Lee Cane	1.5	1.7	1.9
Stephen Humble	0.9	1.0
Kelsie Harfouche	0.8

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Perth

Patrick Gorman	39.3	39.4	39.5	39.6	39.7	40.0	40.3	40.6	41.2	41.6	42.0	43.2	48.3	63.1
Caroline Perks	18.8	18.8	18.9	19.0	19.2	19.6	20.2	20.3	21.9	22.2	22.9	23.9	26.0	36.9
Paul Collins	9.5	9.5	9.6	9.7	9.7	9.9	10.1	10.3	10.6	12.1	14.9	18.0	25.7
Wesley Du Preez	6.7	6.7	6.7	7.1	7.3	7.4	7.6	8.0	8.4	9.6	11.0	14.9
Julie Matheson	5.4	5.4	5.5	5.6	5.7	5.8	6.1	6.3	7.0	8.1	9.1
Jim Grayden	4.4	4.4	4.5	4.5	4.6	4.7	4.8	5.0	5.4
Nicole Arielli	3.1	3.1	3.2	3.2	3.4	3.8	4.0	4.2
Ian Britza	2.9	2.9	3.2	3.5	3.5	3.6	3.8	5.2	5.5	6.4
Ellen Joubert	2.5	2.6	2.8	2.9	3.0	3.0	3.1
Aaron Hammond	1.7	1.7	1.8	1.8	1.9	2.1
Ben Mullings	1.6	1.6	1.7	1.7	1.9
Colin Scott	1.3	1.4	1.4	1.4
Tony Robinson	1.2	1.2	1.2
Barry Mason	1.0	1.0
Gabriel Harfouche	0.4

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Julie Bishop has announced that she WILL contest the next election as the Liberal candidate for Curtin.

I can't help but think she still has her eye on the leadership position for the Liberals. After all, if she didn't why would she be running? Her biggest case for the top spot during the spill vote was that she was the only one the Liberals could keep parliament under due to her popularity with the Australian public. Polls showed that the public wanted her as PM, but the MPs had their own agenda. I feel that her plan is this: After their (the Liberals) inevitable loss to Labor in the polls next year, she will force a spill on the basis of "I told you so" to unseat Morrison and take the helm of leadership to combat PM Bill Shorten as the Leader of the Opposition. After all, polls did say Australians prefered her as PM over Shorten by a massive margin so it would be smart for the Liberal MPs to bite the bullet for the sake of their party and hand the top spot to her.

Anyways, that's my schpeel for the day.

https://thewest.com.au/politics/federal-politics/julie-bishop-to-contest-curtin-for-liberals-at-next-federal-election-ng-b88947221z

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Julie Bishop has announced that she WILL contest the next election as the Liberal candidate for Curtin.

I can't help but think she still has her eye on the leadership position for the Liberals. After all, if she didn't why would she be running? Her biggest case for the top spot during the spill vote was that she was the only one the Liberals could keep parliament under due to her popularity with the Australian public. Polls showed that the public wanted her as PM, but the MPs had their own agenda. I feel that her plan is this: After their (the Liberals) inevitable loss to Labor in the polls next year, she will force a spill on the basis of "I told you so" to unseat Morrison and take the helm of leadership to combat PM Bill Shorten as the Leader of the Opposition. After all, polls did say Australians prefered her as PM over Shorten by a massive margin.

Anyways, that's my schpeel for the day.

https://thewest.com.au/politics/federal-politics/julie-bishop-to-contest-curtin-for-liberals-at-next-federal-election-ng-b88947221z

There goes our chance of a leadership calm after we lose the election. Abbott vs Bishop. At least Dutton's losing his seat so we don't have the populist rumblings.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Julie Bishop has announced that she WILL contest the next election as the Liberal candidate for Curtin.

I can't help but think she still has her eye on the leadership position for the Liberals. After all, if she didn't why would she be running? Her biggest case for the top spot during the spill vote was that she was the only one the Liberals could keep parliament under due to her popularity with the Australian public. Polls showed that the public wanted her as PM, but the MPs had their own agenda. I feel that her plan is this: After their (the Liberals) inevitable loss to Labor in the polls next year, she will force a spill on the basis of "I told you so" to unseat Morrison and take the helm of leadership to combat PM Bill Shorten as the Leader of the Opposition. After all, polls did say Australians prefered her as PM over Shorten by a massive margin.

Anyways, that's my schpeel for the day.

https://thewest.com.au/politics/federal-politics/julie-bishop-to-contest-curtin-for-liberals-at-next-federal-election-ng-b88947221z

There goes our chance of a leadership calm after we lose the election. Abbott vs Bishop. At least Dutton's losing his seat so we don't have the populist rumblings.

Wouldn't Bishop easily beat Abbott in a spill though? It's pretty clear that the Liberal party would do better after losing parliament under someone as popular as her rather than someone as unpopular and controversial as Tony Abbott. Surely the Liberal MPs would be smart enough not to choose Abbott again?

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Julie Bishop has announced that she WILL contest the next election as the Liberal candidate for Curtin.

I can't help but think she still has her eye on the leadership position for the Liberals. After all, if she didn't why would she be running? Her biggest case for the top spot during the spill vote was that she was the only one the Liberals could keep parliament under due to her popularity with the Australian public. Polls showed that the public wanted her as PM, but the MPs had their own agenda. I feel that her plan is this: After their (the Liberals) inevitable loss to Labor in the polls next year, she will force a spill on the basis of "I told you so" to unseat Morrison and take the helm of leadership to combat PM Bill Shorten as the Leader of the Opposition. After all, polls did say Australians prefered her as PM over Shorten by a massive margin.

Anyways, that's my schpeel for the day.

https://thewest.com.au/politics/federal-politics/julie-bishop-to-contest-curtin-for-liberals-at-next-federal-election-ng-b88947221z

There goes our chance of a leadership calm after we lose the election. Abbott vs Bishop. At least Dutton's losing his seat so we don't have the populist rumblings.

Wouldn't Bishop easily beat Abbott in a spill though? It's pretty clear that the Liberal party would do better after losing parliament under someone as popular as her rather than someone as unpopular and controversial as Tony Abbott. Surely the Liberal MPs would be smart enough not to choose Abbott again?

1. No. It would be very tight between Abbott and Bishop.
2. We don't care about the best chance at the next election. The right is currently the majority, and all they care about is having one of their own as leader. Who cares if he's unelectable.
2. Our parliamentarians aren't exactly known for their brains.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Julie Bishop has announced that she WILL contest the next election as the Liberal candidate for Curtin.

I can't help but think she still has her eye on the leadership position for the Liberals. After all, if she didn't why would she be running? Her biggest case for the top spot during the spill vote was that she was the only one the Liberals could keep parliament under due to her popularity with the Australian public. Polls showed that the public wanted her as PM, but the MPs had their own agenda. I feel that her plan is this: After their (the Liberals) inevitable loss to Labor in the polls next year, she will force a spill on the basis of "I told you so" to unseat Morrison and take the helm of leadership to combat PM Bill Shorten as the Leader of the Opposition. After all, polls did say Australians prefered her as PM over Shorten by a massive margin so it would be smart for the Liberal MPs to bite the bullet for the sake of their party and hand the top spot to her.

Anyways, that's my schpeel for the day.

https://thewest.com.au/politics/federal-politics/julie-bishop-to-contest-curtin-for-liberals-at-next-federal-election-ng-b88947221z

Also, ScoMo is dead the second he loses the next election. In fact, there's a chance he doesn't make it to the next election if we get a particularly poll or a bad by-election result. Or if the Victorian branch is decimated at the state election in November then they may agitate for a new leader, preferably from Victoria.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Julie Bishop has announced that she WILL contest the next election as the Liberal candidate for Curtin.

I can't help but think she still has her eye on the leadership position for the Liberals. After all, if she didn't why would she be running? Her biggest case for the top spot during the spill vote was that she was the only one the Liberals could keep parliament under due to her popularity with the Australian public. Polls showed that the public wanted her as PM, but the MPs had their own agenda. I feel that her plan is this: After their (the Liberals) inevitable loss to Labor in the polls next year, she will force a spill on the basis of "I told you so" to unseat Morrison and take the helm of leadership to combat PM Bill Shorten as the Leader of the Opposition. After all, polls did say Australians prefered her as PM over Shorten by a massive margin.

Anyways, that's my schpeel for the day.

https://thewest.com.au/politics/federal-politics/julie-bishop-to-contest-curtin-for-liberals-at-next-federal-election-ng-b88947221z

There goes our chance of a leadership calm after we lose the election. Abbott vs Bishop. At least Dutton's losing his seat so we don't have the populist rumblings.

Wouldn't Bishop easily beat Abbott in a spill though? It's pretty clear that the Liberal party would do better after losing parliament under someone as popular as her rather than someone as unpopular and controversial as Tony Abbott. Surely the Liberal MPs would be smart enough not to choose Abbott again?

One issue will be that a particularly bad wipeout of the LNP could kill a lot of their moderates, especially in Victoria (the traditional powerbase of the party).

I don't think Abbott will win against a normal opponent. He has a lot of liabilities with the public, and even his factional allies thought his behaviour last parliament was self-interested and toxic. Bishop has her own problems though, being barely any more liked than Turnbull amongst the party's increasingly strident membership and cadre. Theres also the issue that Abbott may be announced the true Right candidate for lack of any other potential leader, especially given the fact Dutton will probably lose his electorate.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Julie Bishop has announced that she WILL contest the next election as the Liberal candidate for Curtin.

I can't help but think she still has her eye on the leadership position for the Liberals. After all, if she didn't why would she be running? Her biggest case for the top spot during the spill vote was that she was the only one the Liberals could keep parliament under due to her popularity with the Australian public. Polls showed that the public wanted her as PM, but the MPs had their own agenda. I feel that her plan is this: After their (the Liberals) inevitable loss to Labor in the polls next year, she will force a spill on the basis of "I told you so" to unseat Morrison and take the helm of leadership to combat PM Bill Shorten as the Leader of the Opposition. After all, polls did say Australians prefered her as PM over Shorten by a massive margin.

Anyways, that's my schpeel for the day.

https://thewest.com.au/politics/federal-politics/julie-bishop-to-contest-curtin-for-liberals-at-next-federal-election-ng-b88947221z

There goes our chance of a leadership calm after we lose the election. Abbott vs Bishop. At least Dutton's losing his seat so we don't have the populist rumblings.

Wouldn't Bishop easily beat Abbott in a spill though? It's pretty clear that the Liberal party would do better after losing parliament under someone as popular as her rather than someone as unpopular and controversial as Tony Abbott. Surely the Liberal MPs would be smart enough not to choose Abbott again?

One issue will be that a particularly bad wipeout of the LNP could kill a lot of their moderates, especially in Victoria (the traditional powerbase of the party).

I don't think Abbott will win against a normal opponent. He has a lot of liabilities with the public, and even his factional allies thought his behaviour last parliament was self-interested and toxic. Bishop has her own problems though, being barely any more liked than Turnbull amongst the party's increasingly strident membership and cadre. Theres also the issue that Abbott may be announced the true Right candidate for lack of any other potential leader, especially given the fact Dutton will probably lose his electorate.

And the fact that Tony Abbott was an amazing Opposition Leader. The problem is, good opposition leaders make terrible PMs, and we never get around to replacing him before a winnable election so we can actually have a functional government.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

https://twitter.com/InsidersABC/status/1036031869337317376

[AustralianSwingVoter]

David Rowe

[AustralianSwingVoter]

David Rowe


David Pope

[AustralianSwingVoter]

The current mood within the party
Liberals host debate about whether the Coalition government is worth saving

[AustralianSwingVoter]

David Pope

[AustralianSwingVoter]

David Pope



David Rowe



Cathy Wilcox

[AustralianSwingVoter]

David Pope

[AustralianSwingVoter]

David Pope


David Rowe

[AustralianSwingVoter]

David Pope

[AustralianSwingVoter]

The Speaker Tony Smith has called the Wentworth by-election for the 20th of October.
https://twitter.com/AboutTheHouse/status/1039718507028467713