Australia General Discussion 2.0

[AustralianSwingVoter]

https://twitter.com/BevanShields/status/1032854736226082817

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Man, I really liked Turnbull


Morrison is solid, though. hopefully he can unite the party and pull a comeback for the government before 2019.

No chance. We have lost the election. We have no candidates, no money, we've lost our biggest donor Malcolm Turnbull, we're languishing in the polls and have just lost the last of our goodwill in the sh*tstorm this week. Labor has already won the next election.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

https://twitter.com/annajhenderson/status/1032881783317000192

[AustralianSwingVoter]

[Lachi]

God, Morrison's speech was filled with bs that he should know the public won't buy.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Kevin Hogan's spokesman:
"Kevin has never said he is leaving the Nationals - only moving to the crossbench. He will sit in the Nationals partyroom but not the Coalition.
Former WA Nationals member Tony Crock did similar. He will guarantee supply etc and look at each bill on a case by case basis."

[AustralianSwingVoter]

https://twitter.com/TurnbullMalcolm/status/1032909157614026752

[Meclazine for Israel]

Malcolm is worth $300M.

What does he have to worry about.

[Vega]

Malcolm is worth $300M.

What does he have to worry about.

Nah he's cool. Probably will become a internet lobbyist or something equivalent. 

[politicallefty]

I have to say the way Australian parties oust their sitting PMs will never cease to amaze me.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Julie Bishop has decided to quit politics

https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/julie-bishop-quits-as-foreign-minister-and-will-retire-from-parliament-20180826-p4zztq.html

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Correction: Bishop just sent out a statement saying that she HAS resigned as Foreign Minister, but has made no decision regarding the next election. Conventional wisdom points to her bowing out, of course.

[LabourJersey]

I have to say the way Australian parties oust their sitting PMs will never cease to amaze me.

[Ebsy]

https://twitter.com/GhostWhoVotes/status/1033678216743989249

Not looking good for the tories.

[Lachi]

Primary vote;
LNP: 33% (-4)
LAB: 41% (+6)
GRN: 10% (0)
ON: 7% (-2)

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Oh wow! For the first time ever, Bill Shorten is the preferred option for Prime Minister.

Preferred PM-

Shorten: 39%
Morrison: 33%

[Knives]

Obviously I think things will settle down but the Liberal brand is incredibly damaged.

[IceAgeComing]

I didn't expect quite that level of change but there being a swing towards the ALP is not at all surprising.  Instability like this isn't a good thing of course especially since you had two spill votes in three days which just makes the party look like a total mess; but also Turnbull was still surprisingly popular as a leader, and so pushing him out and replacing him with someone significantly less popular will really hurt the party.  That's the big difference between this spill and the other recent ones: when Turnbull pushed out Abbott, or when Rudd and Gillard knifed each other at all times you had a more popular potential leader replacing a not very popular person while in this case it was a leader polling miles ahead of his party being pushed out.

The question is quite where this all stabilises out: normally you'd expect a new leader to get a honeymoon period but I doubt that is going to happen here.  Theoretically if the party does end up getting vaguely united they might go up a little bit but I don't see that happening considering the closeness of the spill vote and the fact that the party instantly is back down at near Abbott levels.  Indeed this might even be worse than that: Morrison starting at 33%, six points behind Shorten, is very bad considering that the general trend is that he'll probably fall from there.  Certainly nothing good here for the LNP...

[AustralianSwingVoter]

I didn't expect quite that level of change but there being a swing towards the ALP is not at all surprising.  Instability like this isn't a good thing of course especially since you had two spill votes in three days which just makes the party look like a total mess; but also Turnbull was still surprisingly popular as a leader, and so pushing him out and replacing him with someone significantly less popular will really hurt the party.  That's the big difference between this spill and the other recent ones: when Turnbull pushed out Abbott, or when Rudd and Gillard knifed each other at all times you had a more popular potential leader replacing a not very popular person while in this case it was a leader polling miles ahead of his party being pushed out.

The question is quite where this all stabilises out: normally you'd expect a new leader to get a honeymoon period but I doubt that is going to happen here.  Theoretically if the party does end up getting vaguely united they might go up a little bit but I don't see that happening considering the closeness of the spill vote and the fact that the party instantly is back down at near Abbott levels.  Indeed this might even be worse than that: Morrison starting at 33%, six points behind Shorten, is very bad considering that the general trend is that he'll probably fall from there.  Certainly nothing good here for the LNP...

Last week we killed our last glimmer of chance of winning the next election. Frankly, it's more likely that Labor breaks 100 seats than we win. The polls will tighten up a bit before the election, (my current prediction is 54-46) but we have blown what chance we had left.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

I thought ScoMo would be less damaged because (unlike Gillard) he wasn't the one holding the knife; but I suppose the lay observer doesn't really care about that - all they've seen is another arrogant power move by factional intrigue.

I have a personal theory that Abbott wants the LNP to lose so he can regain the position he enjoyed the most: Leader of the Opposition.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

I thought ScoMo would be less damaged because (unlike Gillard) he wasn't the one holding the knife; but I suppose the lay observer doesn't really care about that - all they've seen is another arrogant power move by factional intrigue.

I have a personal theory that Abbott wants the LNP to lose so he can regain the position he enjoyed the most: Leader of the Opposition.

Remember we have compulsory voting, our swing voters are people who don't give a sh*t about politics and only vote so they don't have to pay the fine. They make up around 30% of the electorate.

You might actually be right there, indeed my local party colleagues are talking up our member's chances of getting the leadership after ScoMo loses.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

New Essential poll backs up yesterday's Newspoll in reaffirming the Liberal Party's sharp decline in support-

Primary Vote-

Lab: 39% (+3)
Lib: 35% (-5)
Green: 10% (-/-)
ONP: 7% (+1)

Two Party Preference-

ALP: 55% (+4)
L/NP: 45% (-4)

PM Morrison starts off with a -4 approval rating 35-40%

57% of Australians believe the Liberal Party is divided and is no longer fit to govern

52% say Morrison should call a snap election

When voters are asked who would make the best leader of the Liberal Party, Julie Bishop takes the lead for the first time with 23% (+7), followed by Turnbull at 15% (-13), and Morrison at 10% (+8). Tony Abbott polls fourth at 9% (-1).

[AustralianSwingVoter]

https://twitter.com/AntonyGreenABC/status/1034236516543778817

[AustralianSwingVoter]

BRADDON

Party	Candidate	Votes	%	±
Liberal	Brett Whiteley	24,645	39.3	−2.2
Labor	Justine Keay	23,218	37.0	−3.1
Independent	Craig Garland	6,633	10.6	+10.6
Shooters	Brett Neal	2,984	4.8	+4.8
Greens	Jarrod Edwards	2,518	4.0	−2.8
Independent	Donna Gibbons	1,533	2.4	+2.4
Liberal Democrats	Joshua Boag	828	1.3	−0.8
People	Bruno Strangio	421	0.7	+0.7
	Total formal votes	62,780	94.3	−0.5
	Informal votes	3,804	5.7	+0.5
	Turnout	66,584	90.3	−3.8
Labor	Justine Keay	32,842	52.3	+0.1
Liberal	Brett Whiteley	29,938	47.7	−0.1
Labor retain		Swing	+0.1

[AustralianSwingVoter]

FREMANTLE

Party	Candidate	Votes	%	±
Labor	Josh Wilson	33,277	52.6	+11.6
Greens	Dorinda Cox	10,456	16.5	−1.2
Liberal Democrats	John Gray	8,916	14.1	+14.1
Christians	Mark Staer	3,350	5.3	+5.3
Animal Justice	Katrina Love	3,297	5.2	+5.2
Independent	Jason Spanbroek	3,239	5.1	+5.1
People	James Harfouche	708	1.1	+1.1
	Total formal votes	63,243	92.8	−3.2
	Informal votes	4,933	7.2	+3.2
	Turnout	68,176	66.1	−22.7
Labor	Josh Wilson	46,375	73.3	+15.8
Liberal Democrats	John Gray	16,868	26.7	+26.7
Labor retain		Swing	+15.8