2022 French legislatives

[Filuwaúrdjan]

... his previous statements about white women being "whores" for trying to act like Rosa Parks...*sigh*

He said what now? Can definitely believe that media coverage related to the man is racist and nasty, but you really don't want anyone who has said anything that overtly misogynistic running for public office, particularly not in a marginal district?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Cease and desist, thank you.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I'm not a particular fan of the two-round system (and certainly not of the very peculiar way it is handled for French legislative elections), but there is a democratic justification for it: that it is undemocratic for highly polarising candidates to be elected on narrow pluralities. As always, much depends on how we define 'democracy' and 'democratic'.

But I will add that, as a general rule, if a candidate or party is very polarising and the election is high-profile enough for ordinary people to care about the outcome, then straight-FPTP will often mimic the effects of a runoff system, to an extent, anyway. People will decide to vote for candidate X even though they support party Y because it is Important that party Z is beaten.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Surprisingly relevant to our discussion. Useless constituency poll is useless. You might expect the party leader to cruise to victory, but RN arn't a parliamentary driven party. This might be enough to elect her on round 1, but turnout would have to be above 50%, so odd are she goes to a easily won runoff.

All of the usual caveats about constituency polling and so on, but it's more relevant to seats with a similar profile in the region than to hers: it's another point in favour of the theory that if Left candidates can get into runoffs in them, then they ought to be competitive in at least some.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Between this and the fact that legislative boundaries are neither drawn nor overseen independently, it really is astonishing quite how American so many critical electoral procedures are in France, albeit through a glass etched with Jacobin insignia darkly.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

lol Jesus down again

[Filuwaúrdjan]

When do we get the exit poll?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Not a triumph for the Left, of course, but a sizeable parliamentary cohort is an absolutely essentially precondition if they ever want to amount to anything again and they should manage that comfortably now. If President Jupiter fails to keep his majority, then that will be very funny.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

In the 5th, Jean-Christophe Lagarde's stronghold, he is far behind: 19.3% against 48.1% for Raquel Garrido, but the results are missing his stronghold in Drancy, although it still doesn't look very good for him. Would be glad to see that slimy clientelistic boss out.

Fingers crossed on that one.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Seat projections are not always as easy to get right as vote shares, we do need to remember that. But it does look as if we can rule out an absolute majority for President Jupiter.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

On those disastrous numbers, I assume that vote transfers to macronismo were terrible, much like in 2017, except that they had much less leeway than five years ago, hence this trainwreck.

Occam suggests this is the likely explanation (which could mean some serious '' winners in places) but, as you know but not everyone will, we will have to wait a little to be sure.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Grim and depressing results on the whole from the partial figures we have, as funny as President Jupiter losing his majority is.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Aisne 3rd continues to be a meme constituency and re-elects its PS incumbent.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

3/3 for the RN in the Aude. Eeep.

Hahaha, it seems as if the RN may have *lost* Pas-de-Calais-3 to NUPES' candidate, the PCF mayor of Avion (a Communist stronghold in the mining basin). A big blow to the Narrative.

https://www.resultats-elections.interieur.gouv.fr/legislatives-2022/062/06203.html

Well at least there are a few deeply funny results against the grain here and there.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Percentage of seats (rather than seat totals: percentages have to be used as the size of the National Assembly has increased so much over the decades) in the National Assembly won by the Left as conventionally defined at the time during the Fifth Republic:

1958 - 18.7
1962 - 31.9
1967 - 39.8
1968 - 18.7
1973 - 35.9
1978 - 41.0
1981 - 67.8
1986 - 43.3*
1988 - 52.7
1993 - 15.8
1997 - 55.4
2002 - 30.8
2007 - 39.3
2012 - 59.1
2017 - 12.5

_{*Election conducted via PR.}

We obviously don't have a final figure for 2022 yet but it's going to be somewhere around about 30%.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Raquel Garrido claims to have won over Jean-Christophe Lagarde

The more silver linings the better...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Raquel Garrido claims to have won over Jean-Christophe Lagarde

Sorry for the not-especially-useful posts, but isn't Lagarde that obscure centrist some poster here worshipped like five years ago for some reason? Praying for them right now.

He runs a rather unpleasant clientelist political machine in Drancy, the largest municipality in the constituency, essentially.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I think we can use our psephological senses to work this one out as well: what sort of constituencies do LR's remaining deputies represent?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

In fairness they have no obvious reason to support a unified parliamentary group, whereas absent an electoral pact it would clearly have been 2017 all over again.