State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2

[jamestroll]

Turns out, PNM was right.

McCaskill won the SD by 22 in 2012; 57 to 35.

I only remembered the McCaskill percent, and I forgot how well 3rd parties did in that election.

Overall still a very good sign. McCaskill wont do as well statewide as she did in 2012 obviously but will need to do nearly as well in the KC and STL suburbs as she did in 2012.

I am even betting she pulls a narrow victory in St Charles County, MO...

But rural areas will remain very very Republican.

[jamestroll]

Corlew is on track to underperform Akins 2012 performance.

No way. McCaskill won Clay County as a whole by 19 points, and SD-17 is slightly bluer than the county as a whole

This post just caused me to check the map and I noticed that McCaskill lost a county in 2012 that she won in 2006. Oregon County, MO must be a very "special" place...lol.

some of the old yellow dogs probably died between 06 and 12 lol..

literally thats the reason.

The only rural counties McCaskill could win:

Ste Genevieve: Lean to likely D in probability but close in margin.
Saline: Toss Up
Adair: Lean GOP
Iron: Lean GOP
Ray: Lean GOP
Lafayette: Likely GOP
Reynolds: Lean GOP
Washington: Likely GOP
Hickory: Likely GOP

[jamestroll]

Corlew is on track to underperform Akins 2012 performance.

No way. McCaskill won Clay County as a whole by 19 points, and SD-17 is slightly bluer than the county as a whole

This post just caused me to check the map and I noticed that McCaskill lost a county in 2012 that she won in 2006. Oregon County, MO must be a very "special" place...lol.

some of the old yellow dogs probably died between 06 and 12 lol..

literally thats the reason.

The only rural counties McCaskill could win:

Ste Genevieve: Lean to likely D in probability but close in margin.
Saline: Toss Up
Adair: Lean GOP
Iron: Lean GOP
Ray: Lean GOP
Lafayette: Likely GOP
Reynolds: Lean GOP
Washington: Likely GOP
Hickory: Likely GOP

What about Jefferson?

My dad lives in Saline County. Dems always do better there in statewide races.

I don't consider Jefferson rural really. But it will lean Democratic if McCaskill is winning.

I know I go back and forth on this and try to hold back my emotions hence why  I continuously had MO Sen as lean Republican but I am finally changing it to a Leaning Democratic hold.

[jamestroll]

something like this I think